Strange Brew?

Tomorrow marks the Mets 81st game (and my 10th of the season at Citi Field). I've made a few observations, some of which I've shared here, others which have just been brewing in my head. Here's what I've noticed.

WHAT'S GONE RIGHT:
Quite a bit, even if there haven't been an overwhelming number of individually stellar seasons, there's a lot here to work with. Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson (and as much as I hate to say it, Omar Minaya) have put together an incredibly cohesive group that plays together, plays for each other, and plays to win, and that's been evident in their 43-37 record. No, it hasn't been pretty and sometimes it's been downright disgusting. But I don't know a single Mets fan who wouldn't have signed for 6 games over .500 and 3 games out of 1st place at the halfway point.

The great performances that we've gotten, particularly out of David Wright and R.A. Dickey don't need much discussion. Each is justifiably rewarded with a trip to the All Star game next week (even though Wright was rooked out of a starting spot either because the Giants fans stuffed the ballot boxes or because the Mets fans didn't), The real MVP this season, however, is probably Johan Santana. Throwing the first No Hitter in Mets History aside, all he's done is come back from major shoulder surgery and look just as good as he did before he got injured, and sometimes even better. It doesn't matter if he can't throw 95 anymore. He knows how to pitch and he can throw whatever pitch he wants, wherever and whenever. More importantly, he hasn't missed a start and he's allowed Dickey and Niese to slide comfortably into their roles as #2 and #3 in the rotation.

The rest of the rotation hasn't been terrible either. Jonathon Niese got over some early inconsistency and has found himself in a real nice groove. Chris Young, when he's healthy, is an excellent pitcher. All he's got to do is stay healthy, however. Dillon Gee has acquitted himself reasonably well as the #5 starter, not consistent, not eye-popping, but he's done what he's needed to do more often than not.

The real question is how long the rotation will hold together. The players themselves aren't the issue here but whether or not they can hold up over the remainder of the season is. Until Young resurfaced, depth had been a bit of an issue, probably because of Alderson's hesitance to rush Matt Harvey up from AAA. It's fine to keep him there, but if there are any more injuries in the rotation, it's probably in the best interest of the team to promote Harvey to the Majors. They can't afford to hand over key starts to more Chris Schwinden types, and while Miguel Batista and Jeremy Hefner are also starter candidates, they can't be trusted over a large string of time.

Other things that have gone right: Ike Davis in June, where he seems to finally have put it together. Lucas Duda's emergence as, if nothing else, a real power threat, complete with the streakiness. Scott Hairston against Lefthanders. Kirk Nieuwenhuis came up early and earned his keep. Frank Francisco didn't throw any chairs. Ruben Tejada has shown incredible polish at the plate and his approach both offensively and defensively will make everyone forget about Jose Reyes before too long. I don't know if the power will develop with time, but his style of play seems awfully reminiscent of Edgardo Alfonzo, and if that's the kind of upside he's got, I'd say he's a keeper.

WHAT'S BEEN SO-SO:
The Jordany Valdespin experiment. He plays with such an infectious degree of energy that it makes him eminently likeable, but he has absolutely no polish and no discipline at the plate, and very little in the field. You could tell this from his first Major League at bat, which came with the bases loaded, and resulted in him swinging out of his shoes at the first pitch and popping up. Better moments would follow, but he's got a lot to learn, and at 24, I wonder if he will.

Scott Hairston playing everyday: I know this is a result of Jason Bay's injury, but the fact is that Scott Hairston isn't good enough to play every day. I know his power surge has been a nice story and he's come up with a lot of clutch hits. But he's the kind of player who kills lefties and is only passable against righties. Play him all the time and he'll get exposed.

Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco: When they're on, they're on. When they're not, watch out. Francisco has often made you want to hide your eyes, and Jon Rauch has incinerated a few leads. Parnell is always a mystery because he doesn't seem to pitch to the level of his stuff. While I'm all for giving Parnell the closer role going forward, I can't say it inspires a ton of confidence. With the back end of the bullpen mostly rotting away and guys like Pedro Beato and Jenrry Mejia sitting in the Minors, I don't think the closer of the future exists on the Mets roster right now.

WHAT'S BEEN BAD:
Jason Bay. Not entirely his fault, but he needs to get out of New York. The sooner the better.

Mike Pelfrey's injury. Not that Pelfrey was going to light anyone ablaze, but he was at least a dependable commodity who could eat innings. His injury resulted in several weeks of the Chris Schwinden Pu-Pu Platter until Chris Young arrived.

Offensive production from Catcher: Though Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas have proven perfectly capable defensively (particularly having to deal with a knuckleball every 5 days), they have been mostly non existent offensively. Thole can handle the bat reasonably well, but he has no power and drives in no runs. Nickeas is even worse and yet mysteriously has driven home 12 runs this season to Thole's 10.

The Back end of the Bullpen: Batista isn't an 8th inning man. He's a mop up man. Ramon Ramirez is woefully inconsistent. I've already mentioned Rauch and Parnell and though they're not the total dregs, they're only a slight step up. Other guys like Robert Carson, Elvin Ramirez and that Egbert fellow, and whoever this Justin Hampson is either aren't ready, aren't capable, or possibly both, otherwise they might have gotten a little more use. Better depth is out there, even though finding a dependable relief pitcher is sort of like throwing horse manure at a wall and hoping it sticks.

IN SUMMATION:
The Mets have managed to overachieve this year without anybody really overachieving (I wouldn't call Dickey overachieving since his numbers were pretty damn good to begin with the last couple of seasons, I think he's learned more consistency which is why he's getting these results). One thing that's helped is that the rest of the NL East, and, in fact, the NL in general, hasn't had any real breakaway great team. The Phillies have come back to earth with a thud and now that they're talking about dealing away Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino who knows what will happen to them. The Marlins, like any "superteam" are having trouble gelling. Washington has won with outstanding pitching. Atlanta is a complete mystery. I don't know how this will play out ultimately, but the Mets are, in reality, a good reliever and probably a right-handed Left Fielder with power away from throwing a major wrench into everyone's plans.

Halftime!

This season started in somewhat disjointed fashion for the Mets, who had already suffered through a pair of close-but-not-quite-good-enough finishes the previous two seasons. The prevailing thought was that whatever problems had reared their heads, be it character, bullpen or otherwise, had been sufficiently addressed and the Mets would rightly resume their position in October Baseball. If we, as fans, weren't already a bunch of basket cases, we soon would be. That promise, so far, appears to have been nothing but idle talk.

It's not so much the mounting injuries that have been the issue for the Mets thus far, it's a combination of a few issues, some of which don't even pertain to the Mets.

1. There was no way of knowing that three players who combined to miss less than 10 games in 2008 would miss significant amounts of time in 2009.
2. There was no solid contingency plan within the organization to compensate for an injury to any of those particular players.
3. The team's system was not properly stocked with attractive-enough prospects that could be dealt for a replacement to one of the injured regulars.
4. According to an article by Adam Rubin in today's Daily News, there appears to be a dangerous discrepancy between the doctor-recommended advice given to the Mets and the treatment given to players by the team's medical staff.
5. The poor play of several divisional rivals has given the Front Office a rather convenient excuse to not do anything, hiding behind the guise of "Hey, we're only 4 games back!" (this excuse becomes less palatable when the Phillies win 9 of 10 and open up a larger lead)

Basically, you can look at it this way: Unless some major changes happen within the coming months, the Mets are screwed well beyond 2009. You can already toss this season down the toilet. The reality is that while the Mets would like us to believe that there's still a shot for them (Primarily for the purpose of filling the seats at Citi Field), they're not going anywhere in 2009, and any move that they make now is going to be so reactionary that there's a good chance it could hurt the Mets beyond this season (Omar seems to be fond of these deals, while the Nady for R. Hernandez/Perez deal, Bannister for Burgos and the Castillo trade weren't terrible moves, they also weren't necessary moves, which is part of his problem). In reality, the Mets should be selling off this year, and rebuilding for 2010. It might not be good for attendance, and it might not be what Freddie, Jeffy and Omar want to do, but for the good of the future of the team, they have to seriously consider sacrificing this season.

That said, let's examine just how bad it's been:

What's gone Right: Sadly, not much.

1. Citi Field has been as good as advertised, despite lengthy lines at Shake Shack. Food great, Seats good (I have yet to watch from an "obstructed" seat), general look of the ballpark beautiful.
2. David Wright has finally learned how to hit, even if he slips into idiot mode from time to time. It's come at the cost of his power stroke, which has drawn the ire of a lot of fans, but I think he's better served hitting .340 with 15 HRs than .280 with 35 HRs. This will become evident in the long run.
3. Daniel Murphy has shown signs of being a decent-fielding 1Bman.
4. Johan in April.
5. Francisco Rodriguez (except when he walked Rivera)
   

What's gone Wrong: Just about everything else.

1. Injuries to key players, and then injuries to the guys replacing them.
2. Sudden and inexplicable loss of fundamentals.
3. Too many games like This One.
4. Too many games where the Mets not only lose, but embarrass themselves in the process.
5. Lack of ability to generate much, or sometimes any offense for days at a time.
6. Inconsistency of pitchers such as Pelfrey and Livan Hernandez.
7. Oliver Perez.
8. Daniel Murphy's complete and total inability to play the Outfield.
9. Fernando Tatis' carriage turning back into a pumpkin.
10. Days where Jeremy Reed was the #5 hitter in the lineup.
11. Jerry Manuel's constant chuckling.

Bad contracts, injuries, questionable medical advice and failing farm system have crippled Mets [NY Daily News]

What the Hell do I Know?

Last night, I attended The Biggest Game In The Galaxy, the Sunday Night Mets/Rockies game that officially closed out the first half of the season for both teams. I felt oddly confident all day, and justifiably so, especially with the Mets having won 8 in a row and progressively looking more and more dominant in doing so.

In the top of the 1st, Mike Pelfrey quickly allowed a leadoff single to Scott Podsednik (punctuated by some doofus in UR2, Row V yelling "ONCE AGAIN, NO NO HITTER!" and me wanting to walk over and smack him in the teeth) and then quickly falling behind Clint Barmes 3-1, looking shaky, missing with his sinker and throwing his fastball at 86-88 MPH.

"Shit," I thought to myself. "He doesn't have it. Figures, it's the game I go to."

Pelfrey then zipped his next pitch in at 94 MPH, and Barmes responded by slapping the ball directly at Jose Reyes, who spun and turned a rather easy 6-4-3 DP.

A relatively brisk 7 innings later, Pelfrey, after getting the Rockies to basically pound the ball into the ground all night, punctuated yet another sterling effort by getting Podsednik to pop out to Wright, capping off 8 shutout innings over 119 pitches, walking off the field with the crowd chanting his name and even getting called out for a curtain call.

Were it not for the fact that he had to waste so many pitches on Omar Quintanilla (12 in the 3rd inning, another 8 in the 8th), Pelfrey certainly would have been in line to close out the game himself. I figured as much, and by the end of the 2nd, with the Mets already up 4-0 and the rest of the game feeling pretty academic, boldly texted El Guapo that Pelfrey would throw a shutout. So I was off by an inning. Close enough.

The point of all this is, basically, what the hell do any of us know? After spending the better part of the first three months of this season watching uneven, uninspired baseball that was frustrating, and made many of us lose faith and hope, and declare this team an unwatchable, unlikeable mess, the Mets go into the All-Star break on a 9-game tear, standing at 51-44, half a game behind the Phillies for 1st place.

After all that, the Mets are half a game out of 1st place. Go figure.

Pelfrey himself could be the poster boy for this dramatic turnaround. So many times, Pelfrey was considered the weak link, and one more bad start away from a ticket to New Orleans. Then came that outing against Arizona. And that was just a tantalizing preview. Instead of regressing, Pelfrey built on that strong outing and followed it up with more strong outings, to the point where, this past week, he threw 7 shutout innings against San Francisco and 8 more against Colorado, good enough for him to be named the NL Player of the Week. Now, who the hell thought that was going to happen 2 months ago? El Guapo and I discussed it via text during the game. His point, that it was hard to argue with Pelfrey's talent, but he spent too much of the time that he would have spent in the Minors harnessing it trying to figure it out in the Majors is a valid one. It's difficult to be jarred straight to the Majors less than a year after being drafted, and there's a reason that it rarely happens, particularly for Pitchers. Only now does Pelfrey seem to be finding his legs and building his confidence, fully harnessing the talent that he's always had.

The Mets have pretty much gone the same way. A month ago, we would have been happy with a 4-2 homestand against weak teams like San Francisco and Colorado. We would have been happy with a split in Philadelphia. But the Mets clearly have turned a corner, flawed as they are, and managed to rip through Philly and keep it up during this recent homestand. Players who have gotten hot have remained hot (Carlos Delgado, for one, has been especially hot; his HR on Sunday Night looked, off the bat, as if it was sailing towards Mo Vaughn territory near the top of the scoreboard, or perhaps even over the scoreboard), and other bit parts such as Fernando Tatis (who is now getting the ABBA treatment for his base hits, which I'm embarrassed to admit I approve of) and Damion Easley, whose Game-Winning HR on Friday night was reminiscent of, well, just about every other HR he's hit for the Mets. Or it's the pitching coming through, like they did on Saturday, spreading a 1-hit shutout over 5 pitchers who all threw rather effortless games. Even FOX's drunken, arrogant jackass Ken Rosenthal couldn't throw a damper on the Mets, much as he tried to discredit their hot streak by basically saying, "You can't take them seriously because they're beating up on the lousy Western Division." Rosenthal then interviewed Wagner after the game. I know you have to be diplomatic, but if I'd heard Rosenthal trashing the Mets throughout the game and then he tried to interview me after the team won, I probably would have told him he was an asshole and walked away. Even if the West is lousy, and they are, you still have to go out and win the games, and the Mets, for the first time all season, have actually been going out and doing so, and they should be credited for that.

So, now, the All-Star Break, at a rather inopportune time. It remains to be seen what the rest of the season will hold for the Mets. It's not even a given that they'll be able to keep their winning going after the layoff, although it helps that they're going to play another weak team in the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend, but this has all the makings of a 2-2 split or losing the series 3-1. Momentum can disappear very quickly. But El Guapo said it best: "Whatever happens this season, this is awesome right now."

Two odd notes for the All-Star Break:

1) Yabba Dabba Yankees!
In case you hadn't noticed, the All-Star Game is at Yankee Stadium, and Major League Baseball, ESPN, and just about anyone else with a pulse has taken this opportunity to heap oodles upon oodles of nauseating praise on the Yankee organization, thus turning the game into little more than a massive ass kissing session and another reason for the team and their fans to heighten their sense of self-importance. Not that they need such a thing. All I'll say is that if Mike Pelfrey were a Yankee, he'd be the toast of New York right now, and people would be screaming about how he's not on the All-Star team. Wagner is there, and so is Wright (however reluctant I feel about that; as he's one of the few Mets not hitting right now, I'd really rather he had the rest), although not so you'd notice. Wright, diplomatically, called this a celebration for New York on ESPN tonight, but I think we all know the truth.

2) The Passing of a Legend
It's not Bobby Murcer. Red Foley, who served as the Shea Stadium official scorekeeper for pretty much forever, passed away today at the age of 79. You always knew he was there, even if his presence was almost always never known. I'll remember Foley most for his quick and fair judgment call on Robin Ventura's Grand Slam Single, sorting out the chaos like the pro he was. As someone who has scored every game he's attended, I tip my cap to Red, whose work I always followed so that my scorecard was always up to date.

Halfway to Somewhere

So, it's the All-Star Break. I'd like to say that I'm really excited to watch the game tonight, but, really, I just can't. I'll probably watch the big Hoo-Ha before the game, and maybe a few innings, just to see Reyes and Beltran and Wright, and then tune it out. We all know that the AL Fatboys are going to win again and secure Home Field Advantage in the World Series anyway.

But with the All-Star Break on hand, let's take a look back at the first half of the Season for the Mets. It's been uneven so far. A hot start despite some key players struggling, and then sheer and utter impotence over the last 6 weeks. You could say that the turning point was Alou being placed on the DL, although the problems that are so obvious now really have been evident all season long.

This team hasn't clicked at all. They've been mostly terrible with situational hitting, especially with runners in scoring position. Players are being lauded for making "productive outs" when they should be driving runs in (hear that, Beltran?). The Bullpen has wavered in between marginally solid and downright miserable (except for Wagner). The Starters have been inconsistent, either pitching well with no run support or simply imploding.

And yet, the Mets come to the All-Star break in first place, 48-39, 2 games up on Atlanta. Last year, at this time, the Mets were 53-36, and had a 12 game lead. Only 4 games off of last year's pace. But the teams behind have improved somewhat. And you can only say somewhat, because if either Atlanta or Philadelphia had played well at all over the last 6 weeks, they could have easily passed the Mets.

It's very frustrating watching the team right now, because we know that this team is better than last year. Anything short of going to the World Series will be a failure because we know that the team is capable of getting there. But unless they start to play up to their potential—and right now, there are too many guys who aren't—there's no guarantee that this team will even make the Playoffs. It's something that's too shaky to take for granted right now.

So let's pick on a few guys, shall we?

The Good
1) John Maine
"Hi, my name is John Maine. See, at the beginning of last season, nobody knew who the hell I was, other than some kid ignominiously thrown into a trade with Baltimore for Anna Benson. But last year was a good litmus test to see what I could handle. I learned how to pitch, and to deal with adversity, and I was rewarded with appearances in a couple of the biggest games of the season. Now, I've got confidence and balls, and I'm going to go after you and dominate. I'm going to pitch with a chip on my shoulder this year. I'll start the season on an unconscious pace, slip up a little in May, and then regain my footing as the anchor of this rotation. Sure, laugh all you want, but by July, you'll be looking at me as the Stopper and I'll have won 10 games and people will be screaming about how I was snubbed for the All-Star Game. And I'll deserve to have gone, much moreso than that Friggin' Cole Hamels."

2) Oliver Perez
Another throw in that has surprised everyone. Yes, Perez has been know to throw up a real stinker every now and then, but for the most part, the results we've seen from Ollie have been very good, especially in big spots. 3 wins this season against Atlanta. 2 wins against the Yankees. A near shutout against the Brewers. But he's shown that he is better than simply a wild, inconsistent lefty who can't be counted on. Early on, he had been alternating good starts with bad starts, but he gained some consistency in May, and was really carrying the rotation for a while, as Glavine and Maine were struggling. And the Mets could have used him over the past couple of weeks in Colorado and Houston, I'm sure, as opposed to guys like Vargas and Williams. Plus whenever he starts, the entire team leaps over the foul line as they run onto the field at the beginning of the game, so he's also good for team unity. And he gave me the peace sign at a game last month. We need Perez back and healthy in the second half to have that fighter's chance. Right now, he could be a hell of a #4 starter for a Postseason run.

3) Billy Wagner
Pitch to Contact. Wagner has done this well so far during the season, and the results have spoken for themselves. Were it not for a Pat Burrell HR in June, Wagner would be perfect in save chances this season. He's also racked up his fair share of strikeouts as well. The only trustworthy arm in the bullpen. Keep it up.

4) Ruben Gotay
I got called out for omitting Gotay from my capsule on Jose Valentin in Spring Training. Gotay has made me eat my words by coming up and hitting over .300 with some pop in a reserve role. I'll stand by my assessment that Gotay won't be an everyday answer at second base, even though Valentin has been terrible and many people are clamoring for Gotay to make the starts everyday, but this is because, much like Endy Chavez, Gotay will become exposed as an everyday player. He's a nice role player and spot starter, but he proved 2 years ago with KC that he's not an everyday player. In 2004, he was passable, .270/.315/.375, but miserable in 2005, .227/.288/.344 before being sent back to the minors. Keep him around because he'll be one of those guys that always does something, but don't wear him down.

Others that were good, but don't need to be examined: Jose Reyes, Orlando Hernandez, Endy Chavez (before he got hurt), Jorge Sosa (surprised the hell out of everyone), Pedro Feliciano.

The Somewhat Good
1) David Wright
Yes, this is just the kind of picture I like to see. Wright at an All-Star Playboy Party. Well, I've already made enough about Wright's off-the-field exploits this season, but what about on the field? He had a completely miserable April, where he barely hit at all, and then finally pulled himself out of it somewhat in May, and got hot again at the end of June. But he's been uneven overall, although his numbers are still respectable (.316, 20HR, 74RBI at this time last year, .292, 16HR, 51 RBI now), but he hasn't gone on quite the tear that we saw out of him early on last season. I think he's got it in him. But he's got to get hot and stay hot.

2) Carlos Beltran
I know, I know. Beltran is and always has been a streaky player. But this year, it seems as though his streaks have been too far apart. He hasn't had one of those ridiculous weeks like he seemed to have frequently last season. And as you noticed before, I called him out as being one of the main culprits of the bad situational hitting the Mets have exhibited. I don't know how many times the Mets have had Reyes on 3rd with 1 out, and Beltran has swung at the first pitch and popped out to the Shortstop, or just struck out. Or there has been a runner on second and Beltran has grounded out and moved the runner over. Sure, you can use the "productive out" defense, but the Mets aren't paying Beltran all this money to make productive outs. We're paying him to get productive hits that drive in runs. He only drove in 117 last season. Right now, he looks like the lost Beltran of 2005 rather than the unstoppable one of 2006. We know what he's capable of doing, and yet it seems like he's lost half the time.

3) Shawn Green
Green has had his moments this season, and he surprised the heck out of everyone with his raging hot start. It looked, however briefly, like he was becoming the Shawn Green of old, with less power, but still able to hit with some authority. Then he got hurt, and now he's back to the Shawn Green that looks cooked. It was fortunate that he hit when he did, since at that point, Wright and Delgado were slumping, and he prevented the team from coming apart completely. But another hot streak like he exhibited early on would certainly be helpful, otherwise, he is worth little more than a stopgap filler until either a trade is made or a Milledge or a Gomez ascends and is ready to play full time.

Others who were so-so: Carlos Gomez (Was starting to find himself before he got hurt— still concerned about his OF defense and ability to hit in the clutch), Moises Alou (Good before he was hurt, team may be missing him more than we realize), Paul LoDuca (Should have stayed in the #2 spot all season), Tom Glavine (Like El Duque last season, either very good or embarrassingly bad), Joe Smith (Flashes of brilliance, flashes of youth), Damion Easley (another heady guy off the bench, but probably should be platooning with Gotay at 2B), Aaron Sele (in all honesty, he could have been a lot worse. I mean, for crying out loud, it's Aaron Freakin' Sele).

The Bad and The Worse
1) Scott Schoeneweis
Do I really have to explain this?

2) Jose Valentin
Before his injury, Jose was sort of passable, kind of on the pace he was on last season. Since his injury, he's had nothing. He has failed to even come remotely close to the contributions he made to the Mets last season. His defense is compromised by a knee injury that limits his mobility. He's flailing away at pitches he used to hit. Now, his starts are greeted with moans and groans. It was a risk to bring him back, as opposed to someone younger, this season, and this is why he was one of our 5 Key Mets. And he is one who has completely bombed out and made us look foolish. We don't like to look foolish here.

3) Carlos Delgado
Well, we know that he's not completely cooked. He has had too many big hits this season for us to think that he is. But his hits have come few and far between, and just when it looks like he is turning the corner, he goes 0 for 16 and he's back in a slump again. Like Beltran, too many "productive outs" and not enough productive hits. Now, this is not unfounded for Delgado. He's done this before, as recently as 2004, where he has had a miserable first half and a great second half. But he's probably the biggest key to the rest of the Mets season right now, because if he hits, and hits well and with consistency, the Mets will succeed. And I don't mean sprinkling HRs here and there, I mean hit, and hit with authority like we know he is capable of.

4) Mike Pelfrey
Pelfrey has started to get better start by start, and he's not getting routinely hammered every time out, but 0-7 is 0-7 and as such is not acceptable for a starting pitcher on a contending team. Even less so for a top prospect who has shown that he can dominate, as he did in Spring Training. He needs more seasoning, and he needs to come up and not pitch with the deer in the headlights look on his face, and not to pout and panic when he gets into jams. John Maine did this last season, but he worked through his problems and had thrived. I am not totally sure that Pelfrey has Maine's insides. I still think he'll be a good one, but he has yet to display that on the Major League level.

Others who were Bad or Worse: Guillermo Mota, Julio Franco, David Newhan, Chan Ho Park, Dave Williams, Ambiorix Burgos, Jason Vargas.

Others who were not mentioned (Milledge, Heilman, et al) are not forgotten, but need to shape up a little bit. There's a lot of baseball left to be played this season, but the Mets have a lot of improvements to do, whether it be internal improvements, or if a trade is to be made, but they are in no way guaranteed to walk away with things as they did last season. It's going to be a long, tough road.

Enjoy the All-Star Game, folks!