Always Be Closing...

This is #5 of 5 Key Mets Players for the 2008 Season.
In 2006, Billy Wagner had what was for him, a normal, outstanding season, replete with 40 Saves, a 2.24 ERA, 94 strikeouts in 72.1 innings, and his usual agita, particularly at some bad moments.

In 2007, Wagner began the season at an even better clip, allowing only 3 earned runs entering June, and not having blown a save all season. Even after he did blow one, annoyingly to the Phillies, Wagner continued on a seemingly dominant clip, making the All Star team and providing little concern.

Then came a game on August 10th against Florida. With the Mets leading and seemingly cruising along, Wagner came in to close out the bottom of the Marlins lineup. No problem. Except that he gave up a hit to Miguel Olivo, walked Jason Wood, and then, out of nowhere, Hanley Ramirez turned around Wagner's best fastball and smoked it off the center field fence, scoring both runs and giving the Marlins the lead and, eventually, the win.

Following that game, Wagner became downright frightening to watch pretty much every time out. Even when he didn't blow the save, he gave me John Franco flashbacks and when he did blow it, well, it was just ugly 10 different ways.

Then, in September, we just didn't know what to expect. Wagner was alternately good and horrible at the same time, ended up missing a key stretch with back spasms, and became more or less an afterthought when things fell apart completely. Billy certainly didn't have a bad season all told, but the majority of his 34 saves and 2.63 ERA were accomplished at early points in the season.
Basically, I don't know what we'll get out of Wagner this year. This is inasmuch as we know what we'll see out of him, which is that he'll do his little Alpaca-hop from the Bullpen as "Enter Sandman" blares, and he'll throw 95MPH fastballs and mix in a slider and whatever that other pitch he was working on but rarely used last season was here and there, but will he? He'll be 37 on July 25th, and he's made a career on throwing the ball hard and with a lot of torque on that small frame.

Yes, yes, I know. He's done it for years, and why should this year be any different? Well, I'm not saying that it will. But last year brought into question whether or not he's going to be able to hold up over the course of a full season, now that he's getting older and the mileage is beginning to take its toll. In '06, he remained consistent throughout the season, with a stinker sprinkled in here or there, so it really wasn't much cause for concern. Last year, the bad outings really clumped up late in the season.

There's one other thing. Every few years, Wagner seems to get hit with injury problems that knock him out for a good chunk of the season. In 2000, he appeared in 28 games and put up an ERA of 6.18. In 2004, with Philadelphia, he again was hurt and appeared in only 45 games. I have this haunting fear that Wagner's about due for another one of those seasons where he's ineffective and injured, and that's not good, especially given the problems with the Bullpen as it is, and with no clear replacement on the team (yes, I am knocking on wood as I write this). At least not a trustworthy replacement.

Granted, a lot of this is all hearsay. But given that Willie and Peterson really count on their Bullpen—and especially their Closer—to carry a lot of the load over the course of the season, it means that everybody that the Mets trot out after their starters are under scrutiny, and everyone deserves to be looked at as a key to the team. But I consider Wagner separate from the Bullpen because his role is clearly defined and isn't going to change if he performs poorly a few times. Come in for the 9th inning, throw strikes, get outs, finish off the opponent. And do it consistently over the 90+ games the Mets will hopefully win this coming season. His track record would dictate that he's not going to fall into a pattern where he gets routinely hammered. But he needs to stay healthy and he needs to finish the marathon if the Mets are going to win, and advance into October, just as much as the guys who will be the bridge between the starter and him need to get him the ball so he can do so.

A Foolish Arrangement

This is #4 of 5 Key Mets Players for the 2008 Season.

Last season, I named the entirety of the Mets Bullpen as one of the Five Key Mets players for the 2007 season. This unit was one of the strengths of the Mets in 2006. Changes were made before 2007, although many of the major pieces remained. But there were questionable moves made, notably the departure of Chad Bradford, the injury to Duaner Sanchez and the inclusion of Scott Schoeneweis, Ambiorix Burgos and Guillermo Mota.

As we saw, the Bullpen didn't even sniff the success of 2006. In fact, the bullpen as a whole pretty much became a giant liability as the season wore on. Sanchez missed the entire season with a shoulder injury. Heilman was grossly inconsistent. Guys like Schoeneweis, Burgos, Mota and Aaron Sele were either injured, or frighteningly horrible. Even Billy Wagner wasn't immune from shaky performances as the season wore on. And finally, come September, the Bullpen was exposed, beaten down and thoroughly embarrassed with regularity.

It's safe to say that even taking the offensive struggles of Reyes and Delgado into account, the Bullpen was by far and away the leading culprit in the September collapse.

So, moves were made. Not many, but some. Gone were Sele and Mota, given away for songs. Schoeneweis was only retained because of a massive, idiotic contract. Spare parts such as Steven Register, Ruddy Lugo, Matt Wise and Brian Stokes were brought in, if only to give Willie some more faces to look at in the spring. This bullpen will eventually be cobbled together, but it's a gigantic question mark as to how effective they'll be over the course of the season.

Of course, it's a far cry from 2005, when the Mets started the season with Manny Aybar and Felix Heredia, two pitchers whose inclusion on the Opening Day Roster made my blood pressure jump 20 beats. But nonetheless, it's going to be an adventure.

Going down the line, we're going to see:

1) Aaron Heilman
I'll give Heilman credit for not caving in completely after the Molina disaster in '06. I was afraid, briefly, that he might go Brad Lidge on us. But aside from being a little too prone to the longball, Heilman was, for the most part, fairly reliable as the 8th inning guy. But without a reliable compliment to spell him every so often, Heilman eventually hit a wall and wasn't so effective down the stretch. One such game against San Diego in August saw Heilman nibble and nibble against Adrian Gonzalez in the 10th inning, but, unable to put him away, finally grooved a pitch that Gonzalez hit out of the ballpark. Another Sunday in Florida saw Heilman receive a 3-run lead and promptly hand it back to the Marlins. We know what we'll get out of Heilman at this point. But unless there's another righty who can be trusted in a key spot late in games, it'll be up to Heilman to run out there game after game...consequences be damned.

2) Pedro Feliciano
Feliciano has basically re-invented himself over the past two seasons, and has become the most reliable lefty arm in the bullpen, if not the most reliable guy, period. But for some bizarre reason, Willie kept using him as if he were merely a lefty specialist, not allowing Feliciano to finish innings or games at times, when it was clear that he was by far the better option than whoever was replacing him. Feliciano has been effective enough over the past two seasons that I'd feel comfortable letting him face a right handed hitter in a key spot. He's one of the few pitchers the Mets have in the bullpen who actually exhibits a keen head for pitching, and not someone who will just run out there and try to throw the ball through a brick wall. He'd be a good compliment to Heilman if Willie would use him that way. He just needs a chance, that's all.

3) Duaner Sanchez
The Most Key Met of the Season, as far as I'm concerned. We don't know what the hell we have here. After his great 2006 season was curtailed because of the now-infamous taxi accident, Sanchez showed up in 2007 overweight and undermotivated, got sent home for oversleeping one too many times, and eventually broke down and missed the entire 2007 season, which was a key blow because if Sanchez had been in the ballpark of his 2006 numbers, it probably would have been the difference between the Mets and Philly come the end of the season. He was, in '06, and should have been in '07, the perfect righty compliment to ease the burden on Heilman in the 7th and 8th innings. One of Sanchez's overlooked strengths was the best rubber arm the Mets could trot out there since Turk Wendell. This year appears to be a different story with Sanchez. This year, he showed up thinner and with a renewed resolve to prove his past behavior an aberration. He says he feels as good as he has in years, and so far, the early results have been encouraging.
But what will it translate to? Can he re-capture his previous success? Does he have anything left? Can his arm hold up over a full season? There's enough questions regarding Sanchez to warrant its own blog entirely. If Pedro Martinez is going to be the key to the starting rotation, and whether or not he can pitch deep enough into games to preserve the bullpen, then Sanchez is the key to the bullpen, whether or not he can answer the bell and be effective after missing a season and a half, and take some of the pressure off the other guys in the bullpen by finishing up what Pedro (and the remainder of the staff) starts.

4) Scott Schoeneweis
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I have to talk myself down just to write about him. Schoeneweis was given an absurdly large contract, and then came in and proved himself the second coming of Rich Rodriguez for pretty much the entire first half of the season. Especially at home, Schoeneweis was routinely hammered by both lefties and righties, which was interesting because Willie continued to use Schoeneweis in the role that Feliciano should have been used in. By the end of the season, Schoeneweis had righted himself, somewhat, this after the revelation that he had been pitching with a torn tendon in his leg, and actually came up with a pair of saves in September, which shocked the hell out of me, but they came in instances where he was, quite literally, the last remaining serviceable arm in the Bullpen. The hot word is that the Mets are willing to deal Schoeneweis and the remaining $7+ million he's owed, but I can't imagine any GM is stupid enough to make a deal for him. Then again, someone took Guillermo Mota. Then again, he's left-handed, he's breathing, and we know he can put the ball over the plate...

...It might save my sanity in the process.

5) Jorge Sosa
Sosa pretty much came out of nowhere and pitched better through the months of May and June as an emergency starter than anyone probably thought he would. In fact, after one particular outing in Detroit, Sosa was probably the best starter the Mets had going. Then, he came back to earth. He had some success in the bullpen last year, but again fell into that Heilman-like trap of being the only reliable guy out there for a time, which meant that Willie was going to run him into the ground. And, he did. Basically, I'm not sure how long we can count on Sosa to be effective in any given role. He's likely going to slide into that Aaron Sele long-reliever role for a time, which is fine, but this means that he's likely only going to work in blowout situations. If Sanchez is effective and Heilman is Heilman, then Sosa will certainly be counted on to carry less of a load. That may not be a bad thing.

6) Matt Wise
A lot of people I know seemed to really like the Wise pickup. Although Wise has never posted eye-popping numbers, and he had a pretty bad second half with Milwaukee last year, he's been, for the most part, a guy who has good stuff and gets outs. That's all I really know about him. If the first five guys I mentioned are going to make the team bar none, then Wise is really the only guy here who could conceivably be fighting for a job, despite his experience. That, or he's more likely just here for insurance in case Sanchez can't go or Heilman's arm falls off in May. Or, my theory, he's just here because Omar wanted to have at least one new face in the bullpen to make us think he's done something productive.

7) Joe Smith
I'd like to think Joe Smith has a better chance at making the team this year. He started off like a house afire after surprising the hell out of everyone in Spring Training last year, but the league caught up to him after a while and he ended up back in the Minors, and didn't seem to get much use when he was recalled. He was pretty up and down after May. I'd like to think that was due mainly to hitting the proverbial wall because he hadn't pitched so many innings before, and he might be better conditioned for more use this year. I have a feeling he's going to play a bigger role in the Mets bullpen this year than people are willing to give him credit for right now. Keep an eye on him.


8) Ambiorix Burgos
A co-worker of mine kept asking me if we were going to have some Burgos on the days after Burgos pitched last year. I thought he was making some sort of idiotic reference to Burgers, until I found out that Burgos is apparently a type of Polish Hunter's stew, a horrendous mishmash of ingredients thrown into a pot and boiled until it resembles the structure of Burgos' arm by the end of last season, after he had accomplished little more than reminding us of Kane Davis. Sigh.

The Rest: (Register, Lugo, Stokes)
I would have thought that Register might have a better shot at making the team since he's a Rule V draft pick. He still might make the team, although it may only be holding the baseballs for Billy Wagner out in the Bullpen. Lugo I know nothing about except that he's just another slop-throwing reliever who can put the ball over and might get an out here and there. Stokes managed to get himself booted out of Tampa Bay which really gets me excited about his prospects here. I'd expect to see the three of them at Shea at some point, but they might as well have the staying power of Jon Adkins. There's also Willie Collazo (not Colazzo) and Carlos Muniz, although Willie seemed to think that he would be summoning the furies of hell if he actually let them pitch last season, so that probably means neither of them is ready yet.

Man, there's a lot of crap at the back end of this bullpen.

I don't know. Yes, spring training is supposed to be a time for Optimism, but for some reason, this Bullpen continues to give me a very queasy feeling.

I hope it's just gas.

Vote For Pedro!

This is #3 of 5 Key Mets Players for the 2008 Season.
I've heard it said by more than a few people that the signing of Pedro Martinez prior to the 2005 season was a waste. Not so. I will and we at the Ballclub have defended this signing in the past, and will continue to do so long after Pedro has retired. Yes, when Pedro was brought in, he was not the dominant, badass Pedro that he was for so many years with the Expos and Red Sox, and it was a signing based more on reputation than on expected performance. Not only did the Pedro signing arguably give the Mets a leg up in bringing in some other key players, it brought back a few things to the Mets that had been sorely lacking in the few years prior. Those things were Energy from the fans, and Hope. For those first couple of seasons, every Pedro start was an event. Things were always happening. Pedro was brilliant, or sprinklers were going off on the infield, or Pedro was pointing at fans and acting silly, or whatever. The signing was a necessary one at the time it was made. Whether or not he's earned the $53 million is, at this point, academic.

At the time, Pedro was counted on to be the Ace. With Pedro now entrenched on the latter half of his career, and also entrenched as the #2 starter behind Johan Santana, Pedro will be counted on less as The Man, the guy who's going to eat innings and dominate, and moreso as the #2 guy, who is going to be himself, as he always has, pitch out the season, have his rough spots, but more often than not, give the Mets the 6 innings needed to win a game.

It's clear that, unlike in Boston, 2004, when Curt Schilling was brought in, there is no sense of "Dueling Aces" going on between Pedro and Johan. Pedro and Johan certainly appear to have a great deal of respect for each other, and for what they both will bring to the Mets in 2008. It appears that Pedro has willingly ceded the #1 starter status to Johan, and rightfully so. Pedro isn't going to rear back and kill you with a stream of 95MPH heaters, deadly curves and mind-numbing changeups. He's not that kind of pitcher anymore. His best days will see him touch 90-91. But as he has gotten older, Pedro has managed to successfully re-invent himself as a pitcher. Pedro is a rare breed: A power pitcher who knows how to pitch, rather than just throw (I cite Oliver Perez as an example, not as a knock on Ollie, just an example). One such game late in 2005 saw Pedro shut out the Atlanta Braves on a mystifying array of off speed and breaking pitches, and the gas at the right moment. But this sort of effort from Pedro seemed to elude him as the 2006 season wore on, and his health was an issue. That, again, was nothing new. As a pitcher with a slight build, Pedro's arm health was always that thing that nagged in the back of your mind, be it as a Sox fan from 2001-2004, a Mets fan following, or anyone who owned him in a Fantasy Baseball league. And in 2006, that major injury bug finally hit him, when he went down with a balky hip and, eventually, a Rotator Cuff injury.

2007 could basically be considered a wash for Pedro. He returned to the Mets in September, perhaps as the cog that would finally push the Mets away from the pack in the NL East. That didn't happen. But it wasn't Pedro's fault. Yes, the first few efforts he turned in were uneven. But like John Maine has been able to bank on his fabulous finish, so, I believe, can Pedro. With the Mets desperately hanging on, playing a makeup game against the Cardinals on September 27th, Pedro came out and pitched his heart out for 7 courageous innings. With the Mets offense providing him with nothing, the crowd apoplectic and the margin for error nil, Pedro pitched to the absolute best of his ability that night. Yes, he gave up 3 runs on some soft singles and shoddy defense. But what more could possibly have been expected from him on that night? His effort alone brought some faint glimmer of energy to the fans at Shea that night—and yes, it comes back to that one thing—Hope.


So now, we turn ahead to 2008. The final year on Pedro's 4-year deal. Pedro has come to training camp feeling great, full of pep and energy and his usual vinegar. He has brazenly said that he feels better than he has in years, provided us with the quote of the year when asked about steroids, and even boldly threw a side session with his eyes closed. But what, then, can we expect from him once the gun sounds? Again, with Santana in the fold, Pedro doesn't have to be an ace, he just has to be good. Santana's going to be the guy. He's going to eat innings, be his own bridge to Heilman, Feliciano and maybe even all the way to Wagner. But maybe he's better than good. Maybe, just maybe, Pedro has one last, great season in him. And wouldn't that make the Mets golden? Wouldn't that ease the burden on an already questionable bullpen? Wouldn't that serve to back up Carlos Beltran's statements? Woudn't that shut Jimmy Rollins and the Philly fans up?
The odds certainly wouldn't dictate that Pedro would be able to be the dominant, badass Pedro of old, that's for sure. But given that Pedro is very likely feeling better than he has in years, that he won't have the pressure on him of having to live up to his past, and the fact that Pedro is, perhaps, the smartest pitcher of his generation, wouldn't it just make sense for Pedro to shock the hell out of everyone, come out and put up 15-18 wins and a 3.30 ERA? Wouldn't it make sense to see Pedro come out and toss 7 innings and give up 3 runs, 2 earned on 7 hits and 1 walk on a regular basis?

He did that last September when hope was hopeless. Hope isn't hopeless anymore in Mets camp.

It's a Shame About Reyes

This is #2 of 5 Key Mets Players for the 2008 Season.

It seems like a bit of a recurring theme for these Key Mets, but it's valid. After a great 2006 season, these players regressed in similar spots in 2007.

Jose Reyes is a prime example of this.

In 2006, Reyes seemed to have the Baseball World at his fingertips. The season he put together led all of us to believe that he would only get better and better as his career progressed. To go along with his .300 BA, Jose boasted a .354 OBA, 19 HRs, 64 steals and a whopping 81 RBI out of the leadoff spot. He hit for the Cycle in June, 3 HRs in a game in August, and an exciting play pretty much on a daily basis. The smiles, the handshakes and the winning attitude permeated throughout the Mets dugout.

And in 2007, while the SB numbers remained lofty, it seemed like Reyes regressed.
After starting off April looking every bit like he was going to smash the career highs he'd set in '06, all of a sudden Reyes drifted into a funk, beginning at the end of May, that lasted through the remainder of the season. And suddenly, with Reyes not getting on base and creating havoc and runs, the rest of the team seemed rather lost. Even worse, it seemed like Reyes wasn't enjoying himself. There was the much-publicized benching by Willie Randolph in July after Reyes failed to run out a ground ball. Line drives were caught. He wasn't hitting grounders. His swing looked completely screwed up, like he was trying to uppercut the ball. This was a bad habit Reyes had gotten into earlier in his career. It had appeared he'd righted the problem, but fell into it again as he obviously became more frustrated in '07. I've made the argument that Reyes could have been slightly jealous over all the ink Endy Chavez got for his HR against the Yankees. Whether or not that's true, or just another of my cockamamie theories is moot at this point. Whatever it was, Reyes did very little of what he was expected to do in '07, and was a prime culprit of the lazy, listless play the team displayed at the end of the season.


His low moment, perhaps, could have been in the 9th inning of the September 25th game against Washington. With the Mets miserably trailing the Nationals 10-3, Reyes was seen laughing and smiling on the field as the team crumbled. Gary Cohen noticed this and promptly tore Reyes a new one on SNY. Howie Rose did the same on WFAN. How could Reyes be laughing when he's been the picture of lackluster play? Reyes came up in the last of the 9th and whacked a 3-run HR, leading to a furious 6-run rally, a day late and a run short. It was frustrating to watch, but when Reyes appeared to behave like a petulant moody teenager, it bordered on the unacceptable. On the final day of the season, Reyes was among those booed the loudest and the longest. And although I rarely condone booing your own players, this time, it was deserved.

Following the season, Reyes deservedly took a lot of heat for his performance. It was suggested that Omar Minaya and Willie Randolph needed to give Reyes a stern talking to about keeping his focus and remembering what his responsibility to the team is. The revelation that came out, echoed in a December New York Times article, was that Reyes was exhausted by the end of the season, but refused to sit, and refused to discuss his need to sit with his manager. The blame for this falls both on Willie and Reyes, Willie for not recognizing it and sitting Reyes for a day or two here and there, and Reyes for not being up front about it. When Reyes was tired, he lost focus, and when he lost focus, he made dumb mistakes and fell into bad habits.

Clearly, this can't repeat itself if the Mets are going to return to prominence in 2008.


Reyes, like most of the Mets position players, reported to camp early this year, and one of the encouraging signs we've seen out of him so far is accountability. That is, he's willing to admit to, and accept his role in last season's collapse. "I lost focus. That's Baseball," he says. "It happened at a bad time, and hopefully, it won't happen again."

True, but with all that's been said, by Willie, by Omar, and by Reyes himself, it's incumbent upon him to make sure that it won't happen again. Without Reyes providing the spark for this team, getting on base, being a smart baserunner and showing sound fundamentals, the Mets are screwed.

Jose Reyes knows what he has to do. Now he's got to shut up and do it.

Delgado Believe

This is #1 of 5 Key Mets players for the 2008 season.

Carlos Delgado came to the Mets prior to the 2006 season in a salary dump deal with the Florida Marlins. His resume at the time pretty much spoke for itself. To that point, he boasted 9 straight seasons in which he hit over 30 HRs and drove in over 90 runs. His consistency and power put him among the league's elite. Delgado didn't disappoint at all over the course of 2006. In addition to his 38 HRs and 114 RBI, his mere presence in the lineup helped to make the players around him better. Carlos Beltran, for one, seemed to reap the benefits of having a feared slugger hitting directly behind him, as his power numbers surged as well. And in the playoffs, he started off with a 4-for-5 performance and a mammoth HR in Game 1 of the NLDS, and never looked back, hitting with more consistency over that playoff run than anyone else on the team. It could easily be said that Delgado was the missing piece to the offensive puzzle for the Mets that season that put them over the top and helped them drive all the way down to Game 7 of the NLCS.

There was no reason to expect anything but the same from Delgado in the 2007 season. Yes, there were a pair of surgeries, one for Carpal Tunnel syndrome and another for Tennis Elbow after the '06 season ended, and in Spring Training, the distraction of the impending birth of his first child. But coming into the 2007 season, Carlos Delgado certainly was far from a concern for the Mets.
After Opening Day in St. Louis, where Delgado drilled a ringing double to drive in the Mets first runs of the season, it seemed like everything was OK.

Wrong.

Delgado appeared to have absolutely nothing going at the plate. Fly balls that were sure HRs in 2006 died at the warning track. He didn't hit his first HR of the season until April 23rd, finishing the month sporting a miserable .188 BA, 1 HR and 12 RBI out of his perch in the cleanup spot. He played better in May, but seemed to regress in June. It was frustrating and perplexing to watch, and the Mets performance suffered because of it. With Delgado not hitting, and clearly not himself, the Mets just muddled along. Beltran's production slipped and he began getting pitched around. Delgado was benched at times, other times moved down in the lineup to 5th or 6th, with Wright and Alou hitting ahead of him. There would be moments where Delgado did come through with a big hit, and when he had two 2 HR games in late May, it appeared that he had finally turned the corner. But that was just a mirage. Delgado regressed in June, got hot in July, hitting .323 for the month, and fell flat again in August. With Delgado unable to maintain a consistent hot streak for more than a few games at a clip, Delgado was finally shifted out of the cleanup spot for good. A big 3-run HR in Atlanta at the end of August once again made us think that Delgado would regain his form in September, but just as it appeared he was going to put it together, a hip injury undercut him and knocked him out of the lineup for two weeks when the Mets really needed him. He returned with a week to go and the Mets desperate, but it was too little, too late. And on that final, miserable day, his horrendous season ended with the indignity of having his wrist broken by a Dontrelle Willis pitch. Delgado grumbling with pain outside the batters box on that afternoon seemed to be a microcosm of his entire season: Pain and Frustration.

Add in that Delgado is going to be 36 in June, and it's easy to see why Carlos is the #1 Key Met for the upcoming season. After seeing how his presence had such a positive effect on the team in '06, and how his awful season in '07 screwed things up, it's clear that the Mets offense needs Delgado to step it up and return to form in 2008. But it's not clear whether or not he has anything left. Jeff Matthews at MetsGeek put forth a compelling hypothesis based on the wrist and elbow surgeries he had after '06, and his numbers compared with another slugging 1B, Fred McGriff. What Matthews arrives at is that it's not impossible for Delgado to have a big bounce back season—he neglects to mention that it's also a Contract year for Delgado—but that his performance might be closer to that of the second half of '07. Decent numbers, but not the kind of numbers you're used to out of Carlos Delgado.

Which would mean that the Mets offense wouldn't have quite the same punch it had in '06.

Which would mean that the Mets lineup after David Wright in the cleanup spot looks pretty pedestrian.

Which would mean that if the top of the order can't carry the brunt of the load offensively, the Mets are in for a lot of frustrating 4-2, 3-1 losses where they get a lot of hits but can't drive in any runs.

I've made the "Stand up, Delgado!" joke a few times in this forum, but it's appropriate, especially going into the 2008 season. I'd accept numbers close to his career average if not quite the same numbers he put up in '06. 30 HRs and 90 RBIs would do, with a .265 BA. But you can't at all say that you know he's absolutely going to do that now, and that's what makes this a scary proposition.