Even Less Well-Informed than Last Season (2009 American League Preview

Last season, I waxed somewhat anecdotal about how I hadn't studied for my Fantasy Baseball draft, and the end result was that I ended up finishing 3rd, higher than I'd finished in about 7 years. I can't quite say that my American League predictions ended up nearly as well, but then again, who the hell thought the Tampa Bay Rays would turn into a modern-day version of the 1969 Mets?

The point, as usual, is that most of the time, I don't have any idea what I'm talking about.

I still know relatively little about the makeup of most of the teams in the American League. I still think it's the Fatboy league, strategy-free and full of tiny ballparks and pitchers with an average ERA of 4.80. I believe this makes me just as qualified to make predictions as anyone else who really takes their preseason predictions seriously. As with yesterday's NL Preview, we're hitting rapid-fire and blasting right through this sucker.

AL EAST
1) Boston Red Sox (95-67)
The three best teams, perhaps, in all of Baseball reside int his division. This will throw off their records somewhat since they'll all beat up on each other, and I think it will come down to who has the best head for pressurized games down the stretch. And I think the Red Sox boast the best set of heads. Though it remains to be seen if Ortiz is healthy, there are no questions when it comes to Pedroia, Youkilis or Jason Bay. Their pitching is just as solid, top to bottom, and even if the back of the rotation guys like Brad Penny and John Smoltz can't hack it, they have so much depth that they'll be able to cover it up.

2) Tampa Bay Rays (93-69)
They came out of nowhere last year and they're not going anywhere for a while. They have the pitching to keep up with Boston, without question. Though it's guys like Shields, Kazmir and David Price that get all the ink, I think the guy who's going to stand out for them is Matt Garza, and he's likely the 4th starter. Their offense doesn't quite have the punch of Boston's, but you can't not like the young nucleus of Upton, Longoria and Carlos Pena, and giving Pat Burrell a chance to hit in those AL Ballparks on a regular basis can't hurt him at all. I think they'll hang around right to the end and win the Wildcard.

3) New York Yankees (92-70)
Operating in the Media Vaccuum in New York, all we've been subjected to over the past few months is the Yankee hype machine talking about how this team is the best ever, they're going to win 110 games and nobody will be able to touch them. Sabathia will win 20, Joba will win 20 and other teams may as well not show up. I find this kind of funny when the Yankees are boasting a starting rotation featuring 3 guys who have a history of breaking down (Wang, Burnett, Joba), one more who's basically past it (Pettitte), and major question marks at 6 Offensive positions (Cano, Jeter, Gardner, Damon, Posada, Matsui). And that's not even touching on the Alex Rodriguez circus, who probably won't play until Mid-May at the earliest. If they start slow, and that's a very distinct possibility, they could be in a lot of trouble by time he comes back. Don't be so quick to drink the Kool-Aid. This team has some severe flaws.

4) Toronto Blue Jays (79-83)
They're woefully unexciting and hopelessly buried behind the big 3. They have a very solid pitching rotation, even after losing Burnett, and that should keep them somewhat respectable. But an offense that features Vernon Wells and a horrible mishmash of over-the-hill veterans, middling utility guys and one hotshot rookie (Travis Snider) won't be able to hold up their end of the bargain. Another depressing season for my friends at the Tao of Stieb.

5) Baltimore Orioles (72-90)
I think they'll be better than their record shows, but this division is so topheavy, that they will more than likely just get killed on a regular basis. I know there's some talent here, but I don't think it's worth digging to hard to find it.

AL CENTRAL
1) Minnesota Twins (87-75)
This is probably the most wide-open division in Baseball, though the Twins seem to be the prohibitive favorite. In the final season at the Baggie, the Twins have retained much of the team that was able to take them all the way down to a Play-in game, which they lost 1-0 to John Danks and the White Sox. But this is a smart, heady team that has a lot of guys who just know how to beat you. I love their outfield trio of Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and Jason Kubel, and of course Morneau can carry the load. And then, to top it off, two words: Joe Crede.

2) Chicago White Sox (85-77)
Much like last year, they'll hang around all the way to the end. It's not going to be pretty, they'll probably get a few good meltdowns out of Ozzie Guillen, and they'll probably have their troubles at the back end of the rotation with Contreras and Bartolo Colon, but they have solid mix of veterans and youth, and I wouldn't be all that surprised if they won the division.

3) Cleveland Indians (82-80)
This team that was one win away from sneaking into the World Series a couple of years ago has fallen rudely back to the heap. I don't think Cliff Lee is quite capable of duplicating his numbers from last season, and Carl Freakin' Pavano is the 3rd starter. Their lineup is also basically Grady Sizemore and a bunch of guys who will hit .275 with 15-20 HRs and 60-70 RBI. Yawn City.

4) Kansas City Royals (75-87)
They won't finish last, and they'll actually look better this year. I think the Royals have finally turned the corner here, and might actually be moving in a positive direction. They've added some veteran talent in Coco Crisp and Mike Jacobs to complement their emerging stars Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, Mike Aviles and David DeJesus. Pitching is still questionable, they'll take their lumps, but they have an outstanding bullpen that nobody really knows much about, and Joakim Soria is probably one of the AL's best kept secrets. Look for them to surprise.

5) Detroit Tigers (74-88)
This team is a train wreck.

AL WEST
1) Anaheim Angels (91-71)
I guess so. I think they're everyone's pick because nobody thinks much of the rest of the division. I find them woefully unexciting, but they're clearly one of the more talented teams in the game.

2) Oakland Athletics (83-79)
I think they're going to hit a little more than last year, although should they fall out of the race early, Free Agent to be Matt Holliday will probably be dealt, and Eric Chavez will get hurt, and they also have Jason Giambi and Nomar Garciaparra, which would be a fabulous middle of the lineup punch were it 10 years ago. But I think the fate of the team hinges on how long it takes for them to call up Corey Wimberly. Any guy who boasts the best-looking use of stirrups, well, probably ever deserves to play in the Majors.

3) Texas Rangers (75-87)
Annoyingly Offensive.

4) Seattle Mariners (73-89)
They make me very tired.

AWARDS
AL MVP: Evan Longoria, TB
AL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, TOR
AL Rookie of the Year: Taylor Teagarden, TEX

PLAYOFFS
ALDS: Minnesota over Boston, Tampa Bay over Anaheim
ALCS: Minnesota over Tampa Bay

Figured I'd take something resembling a risk with these picks. Satisfied? Yeah, me too.

It's All Going to be Wrong Anyway (2009 National League Preview)

Every year, I take the time to write a carefully thought-out and logical preview for each league. And every year, I'm generally wrong in just about every respect. I suppose, of course, that that is the beauty of writing a column. In the past, I was doing a Fantasy Baseball league and usually had the time to study up and figure out who was projected to do well, or even in some cases who was on each team. Well, I didn't do that this year. Despite the fact that I wholeheartedly admit to being much more NL-centric and glossed over my AL Preview last year, I'm afraid I'm going to have to do the same for both leagues this season. I just don't feel like I know very much about each team, short of the bits and pieces I've heard on TV and Radio, or wherever. But I think I know just enough to make some well-intentioned guesses about where everyone will finish. So, while this won't have quite the depth of past Season Previews, it should at least be good for a nice guffaw.

As always, records won't add up, you can consider the W-L totals as more or less +/- 5.

NL EAST
1) Philadelphia Phillies (92-70)
Though they lack the pitching depth that their closest competitor, the Mets, have, they've been down this road before and have more or less the same lineup that proves to be so difficult to get out down the stretch. Even if you're replacing Pat Burrell with Raul Ibanez.

2) New York Mets (90-72)
They need to figure out how to get out of their own way before they can realistically be considered the "Team to Beat." Clearly, the pieces are there, and a lot of people seem to believe in them. But I've written plenty about the makeup of this team already, and it seems to me like they're leaving an awful lot to chance on some pretty big question marks. They'll be good. I don't think they'll be quite good enough to pass Philly.

3) Atlanta Braves (83-79)
Rebuilt their pitching staff and brought in some names that kind of look nice on paper, but I think Vazquez and Lowe would have looked a lot better in their rotation were it 2004 and not 2009. Young guys like Jurrjens should be better with a year under their belts. I don't think, however, they'll be able to generate enough offense. Much of their lineup is contingent on Larry, and it's pretty clear that he can't stay healthy over a full season anymore.

4) Florida Marlins (77-85)
They're going to be the same damn annoying team that you can't seem to shake and you can't ever put away. Yes, they dealt away a lot of their punch in Willingham and Jacobs, but the pitching rotation is filled with young, talented guys who are about to find themselves (Johnson, Nolasco, Miller), their lineup is led by perhaps the game's most dynamic player, Hanley Ramirez, and Cameron Maybin appears ready to ascend and I think he's going to be a major star. But, I think they have too many holes in the bottom of their lineup and especially in their bullpen to realistically be considered a contender.

5) Washington Nationals (74-88)
I think they'll be a little better than they were last year, but then again, they amount to little more than a bunch of semi-talented headcases (Dukes, Milledge, Young, Olsen) who are more likely to eat each other alive than eat other teams.

NL CENTRAL
1) Chicago Cubs (94-68)
It's more or less the same team with a few different pieces here and there that will probably mash their way to the NL Central without much drama and then lose in the first round once again.

2) St. Louis Cardinals (88-74)
I really have no idea how they'll do it, it's going to be another one of those stupid Tony LaRussa teams that wins games with tape and bubble gum and you have no idea how or why, but they'll be there at the end.

3) Milwaukee Brewers (85-77)
They still have a boatload of talent on offense, but considering that the major pieces of their drive to the Wildcard last season, Sabathia and Sheets, are both gone, leaving them with a pitching rotation that's headed by Jeff Suppan, well, you can draw your own conclusions there.

4) Cincinnati Reds (79-83)
A lot of people are, I believe, just a little too optimistic about the Reds this season. I know they haven't contended in forever and it's always easy to get crazy when a bad team suddenly looks a little better. They have the talent, certainly, and they'll look markedly better than they've looked in years. But let's be serious. The rotation is filled with middling guys with ERAs around 4.60. They're not there yet.

5) Houston Astros (77-85)
By July, mark my words, the Astros will be that team you end up forgetting about completely until the Mets mysteriously show up in Houston for a weekend series on July 24th.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates (70-92)
No hope in sight.

NL WEST
1) Arizona Diamondbacks (86-76)
I was wrong on this last year, but that doesn't deter me from trying it again. Through intermittent points last season, I felt that the Diamondbacks were the only good team in the NL West. They kind of fell apart late in the season, or was it that LA got hot, but I think they have the pitching and the offense to win this division.

2) San Francisco Giants (84-78)
This team has by far and away the best pitching rotation in the Major Leagues, and if they are somehow able to generate any offense from what appears to be a mostly punchless lineup, they will surprise a hell of a lot of people.

3) Los Angeles Dodgers (83-79)
I don't buy it. Their starting rotation is so spotty that Hiroki Kuroda, who completely lost his composure in a game at Shea last June, is their #1 pitcher. They're going to hit in bucketloads, but the dreck they're going to trot to the mound will amount to a number of frustrating 8-5, 9-7 losses where the pitching just can't stop the other team.

4) Colorado Rockies (74-88)
A far cry from the Miracle Rockies that went to the World Series a couple of years ago. Already, people seem to have forgotten that ever happened.

5) San Diego Padres (67-95)
San Diego fans will be praying for the health and speed of LaDainian Tomlinson by June 1st.

AWARDS
NL MVP: Chase Utley, PHI
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, NYM
NL Rookie of the Year: Cameron Maybin, FLA

PLAYOFFS
NLDS: New York over Chicago, Philadelphia over Arizona
NLCS: Heart Attack.

Hope this makes some degree of sense. AL Preview tomorrow.