Big Boy Pants

Championship weekend has arrived in the NFL once again, and after three straight years of involvement, the 49ers aren't around and therefore I can sort of sit back and watch these games like a normal person instead of a catatonic wreck. Then again, given the depth of my feelings toward the two NFC Championship participants, maybe it's better if I make other plans. Last weekend, I made three conventional picks and one calculated gamble and unlike in the Wildcard round, everything worked and I went 4-0. New England beat Baltimore in a rousing double-comeback affair that sort of exemplified everything that makes Tom Brady great. Seattle didn't totally humiliate Carolina, but they came close enough, winning a game that probably was closer than it should have been because Carolina scored in garbage time. The shootout I expected in Green Bay didn't happen and had things broken one way or the other early in the game, the Cowboys could have pulled off the upset. But they couldn't capitalize, they didn't get the call on the Dez Bryant catch/no-catch call and even if they did, they couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers, who did the Discount Doublechecking rather than receiving it this year. Then, there was the Indianapolis/Denver game, which I thought Indy would win, and they did because all of a sudden Peyton Manning started looking really really old, and his receivers forgot how to catch passes. This was just as I expected. The Colts fell behind early but clawed their way back, eventually took a lead and rode the momentum home from there. They had a pair of long scoring drives in the 2nd and 3rd Quarters, the Broncos could find no rhythm, and they could have conceivably sent Peyton Manning into retirement with one more puss on his face.

So, now we're here.

Sunday, 3:05pm
Green Bay Packers (13-4) at Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
The matchup that everyone wanted is probably the matchup I least wanted to see but knew was unavoidable. Green Bay and Seattle were the two best teams in the NFC for a majority of the season, and after they both started slow, they got their acts together and at one point or another were really stomping everyone in their path. The Packers certainly have the more potent offense right now. Rodgers is at the top of his game, and Eddie Lacy has performed well when he's had to, to say nothing of the fact that the Packers have a no-name group of receivers that look better than they deserve to because of who's throwing them the ball. Seattle can score points too, because America's Sweetheart Russell Wilson does Russell Wilson things and Marshawn Lynch is on another cycle of HGH is "tough to tackle." They don't have sexy receiving options, but they get the job done. Defensively is where the game will probably be decided, because where the Packers, as you well know, are led by this decade's Brian Bosworth, Clay Matthews III, the Seahawks are led by Shire Specialty Pharmaceuticals Richard Sherman and his mouth, combined with Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright and Cliff Avril and the names just go on and on and on until you want to smash your head in. Which is a pretty accurate description of what they'll do to you. And that's before we even begin to talk about the Clink, where you can rest assured the "Soundtrack of 1,000,000 people rioting" will be playing over the PA speakers throughout the game. So, basically, although I'd like to not see this happen again, the Seahawks have too much on their side for the Packers to be able to overcome. Rodgers might do his best, but why fight it.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 21

Sunday, 6:40pm
Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4)
Since the beginning of the Andrew Luck era in Indianapolis, the Colts have been regularly and thoroughly flattened by the Patriots every time they've matched up. I don't know for certain that this will happen again this time, but I do think that the Patriots are going to come out on top in this game. Though the Colts have been winning on Luck's talent and general guile, they have also been winning with the "groundswell effect," which I mentioned earlier, where they may fall behind early, but they kind of hang around, and hang around, and maybe they lead by 3 points at halftime, and they get the ball coming out of the half and score and then get a turnover and coast home. That won't quite work against the Patriots, who have been known to run the ball down the Colts' throats and not give Luck a chance. The Colts can't run the ball much, although this Little Mack Herron fellow has been a nice story, he's also their 4th option at RB. This means Luck is going to have to throw a ton in order to keep pace, and though Wimpy Flacco had success doing so last week, he still couldn't beat the Patriots. The Patriots proved they can finagle themselves out of the depths last week, twice coming back from 14-point deficits behind Brady, some offensive formation chicanery (which to the best of my knowledge might have been slightly unsportsmanlike, but not illegal), a trick play that resulted in a Touchdown, and a defense that held the line when they absolutely needed to. The Colts might be able to hang around and make this interesting, but on another one of those cold New England January nights, I don't think they have enough to take down the Bill Belichick Machine.
Pick: Patriots 34, Colts 28

So, once again, there you have it. Order your Pizza now, maybe Peyton Manning himself will deliver it since he's not playing tomorrow.

The More Fool You

Last weekend, I tried to be a hero and make some innovative picks based on what I believed to be some well-informed observations. Instead, I looked rather foolish as teams played straight up or generally took advantage of some controversial breaks and I ended up going 1-3 for the Wildcard Round. That's not my general pattern, but then again maybe I should have known better. The Cincinnati Bengals weren't going to go into Indianapolis and win. Though the Colts don't pose as a team of world-beaters, they were advantageously matched up against a team that has a habit of self-destructing at this juncture. A similar case unfolded in Pittsburgh, where a Steelers team that is probably better than the Ravens ended up losing because a) Their Running Back-By-Committee was doomed to fail before it even got started and b) the Ravens have a habit of turning it on at this juncture. So, now we're here in the Divisional Round where the Big Annoying Boys take the field and things really start to get interesting. Maybe. I again want to try to be a little more interesting than just going with the field, but I have the sense that this is probably going to be a more form-holding weekend than we usually get. But either way, I have an even greater sense that I'll end up looking the fool.

Saturday, 4:35pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4) 
Bad enough that the Ravens are here again, but now everyone's remembering that magical nauseating run they had two years ago where they went into New England and beat the Patriots, and if you'll recall, I picked against them in every round and they won each time. I thought they weren't that good, but somehow Wimpy Joe Flacco turns into Joe Montana in January and I'll never understand why this happens. New England, however, has put together their best team in a few years, and this is a team that finishes 12-4 and goes to the AFC Championship Game on a routine basis so that's saying something. Tom Brady is still there being Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski will probably have had his bowl of gravel for lunch, and oh by the way Darrelle Revis is lurking in the secondary. Pundits that claim to know lots of things seem to be leaning towards the Ravens because this seems to be the sort of situation where Flacco will succeed and because Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass with his feet last week and everyone needs a new Ray Lewis to hang their hat on. That's why the Patriots will win. Too much hype in the opposite direction.
Pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 24

Saturday, 8:15pm
Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
I'd heard an argument somewhere that maybe, just maybe, the Panthers can come into Seattle, run the ball, not make mistakes and keep the Seahawks off balance and give them a game. I'm not fooled. Carolina didn't play a good game last week against Arizona, but they happened to come out on top because the Cardinals were playing a 4th string Quarterback. This won't fly in Seattle. You know what's coming. The speakers are cranked up, the aluminum walls are extra tinny and the crowd noise is on queue, waiting for Cam Newton to capitulate and throw some dying quail to Richard Sherman so he can disco dance into the End Zone. This is a joke of a matchup and likely won't be interesting for more than a quarter. Make other plans for Saturday night.
Pick: Seahawks 51, Panthers 3

Sunday, 1:05pm
Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)
So the team that was 8-0 on the road goes to play the team that was 8-0 at home in this matchup of annoying teams that nobody likes but the NFL loves to cram in our faces. America's Team! Frozen Tundra! Aaron Rodgers! Tony Romo! Jerkoff head coaches! Ice Bowl! Coach Willy Loman! Woo woo woo! If you haven't puked from overexposure by the end of the 1st Quarter, I salute you, but this is the sort of matchup that the NFL and TV executives are probably peeing their pants over. Word is it's going to be -33˚ and driving snow in Green Bay, which I think is basically the weather there every day from November to April, or at least that's what the NFL wants you to believe. Meanwhile, there's still a game to be played, and stripping away the hype, you have a pair of teams that at one point or another could have been considered "The Hot Team" in the league. Dallas got off to a hot start. Green Bay was throwing 40+ points on the board each week for a while there. But they both came back to earth, and now what it boils down to is a pair of injured Quarterbacks playing in cold weather, so maybe it's better to focus elsewhere. They can both run the ball. Defense? Hmm...neither of these teams play it much. Dallas can't get out of their own way most of the time and the Packers defense is led by a second-rate commercial actor who plays football when he feels like it. What it boils down to is that this is a total snark-fest and part of me is kind of glad I booked a noon brunch so I can kind of ignore it.
Pick: Packers 45, Cowboys 34

Sunday, 4:40pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
I actually think this is the oddest matchup of the weekend. Conventional wisdom would have Peyton Manning going out, tugging his jockstrap a few times and throwing 7 Touchdown passes in the 1st half just to remind everyone that he's still the Pizza Man. And that may yet happen. The Colts, as I mentioned last week when I picked against them, don't do many things well, except that they have Andrew Luck, who may be the second coming of Manning himself, if his first few years are any indication. Denver can run and plays good defense. It's highly doubtful that the Colts can do either particularly well. But many of you know my 4pm Sunday game theory, and how in general, conventional wisdom tends to go out the window in favor of strange things happening. That, combined with the fact that strange things tend to happen to Peyton Manning in the Divisional round in general, the certain-to-be-cold weather in Denver, and the fact that he's been sort of un-Manning-like as this season has drawn on and it makes the hero in me want to show itself. There's an overthrown pass on a 3rd down play. There's a dying quail that falls into the hands of an opposing player. There's a 9-minute Touchdown drive in the 3rd Quarter. There's another game slipping away and hands are being tossed in the air and another shake of the head and a puss on the face...
Pick: Colts 23, Broncos 19

OK, ok. I couldn't resist. After all, I'm not putting any money on these games. Get your Insurance and your Pizza and your shampoo and Chunky Soup ready.

The No-Cares Bears

I feel some sort of moral obligation to make picks for the NFL Playoffs, even if the 49ers aren't involved. I suppose if I don't I might be subject to some sour grapes taunts but let's be real: The NFL Playoffs this season are going to be more about rooting against teams I don't like than anything else, and unlike the previous 3 years, I can't say I have too much of a vested interest in the whole thing. That being said, since there's no team for me to clearly root for, and plenty of teams that I don't like involved, expect a lot of snide comments and ridiculous barbs out of me while I make my picks for these next few weekends.

I suppose the one bit of solace I can take is that given how badly the 49ers played at times this season, it's probably better that they didn't make the playoffs because they stood a good chance of getting themselves bounced in an early round if they did make it, and in some ways, it's better to just not be there at all and count your losses at 8-8 than making it, getting beaten on Saturday afternoon and being "The Forgotten Team" in the playoffs like the Bengals usually are every year.

So, what is there this weekend?

Saturday, 4:20pm
Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
That the Panthers are here is by virtue of one of those little NFL quirks that gives the division champion an automatic home game, and another one of those little NFL quirks that the Panthers won a particularly awful NFC South with a sub-.500 record. But here they are, and believe it or not I think they actually have a good chance to win. The Panthers have been here before, they did win 12 games and scored themselves a 1st round bye last season (before the 49ers came to town and kicked them in the teeth), and they're facing a Cardinals team that started off 9-1 and were the darlings of the NFL before Carson Palmer got hurt, and then Drew Stanton got hurt, leaving them with journeyman Ryan Lindley at the QB helm which has kind of put their offense at a standstill. They do boast a good defense that should give Cam Newton and company fits, but I have the feeling that it won't be enough. The Panthers have the advantage of having muddled through a season where they didn't win a game for 2 months, but they won the games that counted, which ended up being their last 4 in a row, so believe it or not, the sub-.500 team is actually peaking which generally is a good thing to have happen when you're heading into the playoffs. I figure this is one of those games where the Panthers sort of lull their way to a lead, and this is one of those games where you look up and see it's the 4th Quarter and they lead by 17 points.
Pick: Panthers 23, Cardinals 9

Saturday, 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
This is one of the NFL's favorite masturbatory matchups, a rivalry game between two hated rivals, and they still want to give it that starch even if Ray Lewis isn't around to do his stupid Dougie Dance or whatever the hell it is. Somehow the Ravens are in the playoffs; they made it here as the AFC's #6 seed, the winner out of a consortium of teams that spent a majority of the season unable to get out of their own way. I believe this group included Buffalo, Houston, Kansas City, San Diego and even Miami was involved at one point, but it's the Ravens that are here, in spite of their best player being suspended in one of the NFL's stormiest scandals and Joe Flacco still looking like $120 million worth of wimpy (and if you think I'm still stewing over the Super Bowl from 2 years ago, YOU'RE RIGHT!). The Steelers have been the better team most of the season, Ben Roethlisberger has had a great year, as has WR Antonio Brown, but the issue for the Steelers right now is the availability of Le'Veon Bell, their Running Back who's proven himself to be of Frank Gore quality, but was injured late last week and is unavailable. This is a big blow to the Steelers, but even though they're forced to use one of their lesser backs, they still seem to me like they're going to advance here.
Pick: Steelers, 24, Ravens 17

Sunday, 1:05pm
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
This is a matchup between two teams that need to put up or shut up. The Bengals need a win here because they've made the playoffs every year for the last 4 seasons, and every year, they've played like schmucks and lost their first game. Generally, it's because their Quarterback, the wildly uneven Andy Dalton, has turned the ball over some ungodly number of times. The Colts need to win simply to prove that they're a more cohesive team than just some middling players with an extraordinarily talented Quarterback, Andrew Luck. Last season, the Colts were well on their way to getting embarrassed at home by Kansas City before Luck sprung to life and spearheaded a big-time comeback, and then the Colts summarily got their asses handed to them the following week in New England. Injuries play a role here too, since Cincinnati may be without Receiver A.J. Green, who was concussed last week in Pittsburgh. Indy's top receiver, T.Y. Hilton is also banged up but seems more likely to play. Tossup games like this seem to come down to running games moreso than the Quarterbacks, and here the edge goes to Cincinnati, simply because the Colts have no running game to speak of and have to rely on Luck, whereas the Bengals have a two-headed attack with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, and this could well tilt the edge in their favor. A tough call for certain, but I'll take a gamble and go with the Bengals to win their first Playoff game since the Boomer Esiason era.
Pick: Bengals 34, Colts 30

Sunday, 4:40pm
Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
This is also a real tossup game between a pair of teams that haven't had Playoff success in a long time. Dallas has won all of one Playoff game since 1997 and the Troy Aikman/Emmitt Smith regime. Detroit hasn't won one in about as long as Cincinnati has, which takes them back to when Barry Sanders was toting the rock for them and their QB was Erik Kramer (a halcyon era indeed). To compound matters, that's the Lions only postseason win in the Super Bowl Era. Dallas has had a surprisingly good season, primarily because they decided their best way to go about things was to run DeMarco Murray into the ground, eat up the clock in a majority of their games, and not try to let Tony Romo have to do too much. Romo has had a fine season for once in his life, and so the prevailing thought is that maybe he's over that general A-Rodism that overcomes him in big moments. The worry about the Cowboys is that they've been consistently mediocre in spite of a wealth of talent for so many years, that you had to think that one of these years, they might actually get out of their own way and win some games. This could be one such year, but I'm not really buying it. The same could be said of Detroit, who can match Romo with Matthew Stafford, equal parts talent and stupidity, and can match Dez Bryant with Calvin Johnson, and their RB tandem of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. The Lions also have a much better defense than Dallas, and they'll have the added benefit of having Ndamukong Suh playing this week, his suspension for stepping on Beautiful Aaron Rodgers last week having been overturned. I suppose either team could come away with the win here, but I see Detroit's defense stepping up and making plays in such a way that I don't think Dallas' defense is capable of doing. Plus isn't Romo way overdue for a real stinker of a performance? Finally, this is the 4pm Sunday game, usually a marquee matchup where something weird usually happens and things never go quite the way you'd expect it to. I see a close game, but a late Romo turnover will tilt the scales in Detroit's favor while Jerry Jones turns a Coughlin-esque shade of red.
Pick: Lions 30, Cowboys 20

So, there you have it. Enjoy the weekend if you can, and don't sit there watching these games in a mostly dark room sullenly stewing like I probably will.

Nice To See You Again

The NFL Purist will always tell you that Divisional Playoff weekend is usually the best weekend of the season. The weak links have usually been disposed of in the Wildcard round, and now the league's real elite teams start to show what they're made of. Adding a little fuel to the fire is the fact that three of the four games this weekend are rematches of regular season games that drew a decent amount of hype. The fourth one isn't a rematch, but it does feature two teams that have a much-ballyhooed history of meeting up in the Playoffs (and should that not be enough to satisfy you, another one of these games is a Divisional matchup featuring two teams meeting for the third time this season). One need only look at the Quarterbacks to gauge how good the competition is at this level of the playoffs. When the "weakest" of the bunch is a former #1 overall pick who threw for over 4,000 yards as a Rookie, you know the competition is pretty stiff.

Last weekend, I went 3-1 with my predictions. Indianapolis advanced thanks to a miracle comeback after making me look rather foolish for the first half plus of their game. San Diego blew up Cincinnati's shit and made them look like chumps. I have, of course, already been through San Francisco's win in Green Bay. The only misstep I made was picking Philadelphia over New Orleans, as I underestimated the Saints relying on their running game, taking advantage of some holes in Philly's defense and keeping their quick-strike offense off the field. Well played by Sean Payton and Company, but they face a much taller order this weekend.

Saturday, 4:30pm
New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
This is the rematch of a Monday Night game that got a lot of hype as The Game that would determine who would be the #1 seed in the NFC and the Saints basically got their clock cleaned by the Seahawks and their juiced-up defense. Since then, the Seahawks have pretty much hummed along, only hiccuping against San Francisco and Arizona, while the Saints frittered away their division. The Saints, not given much of a chance last weekend in Philadelphia, shocked everyone by winning on a last-second Field Goal to win their first road game in Franchise History. Winning their second will be a tall order against a Seahawks team that has been more or less unstoppable in their little Tin Shack where everything seems to just bounce their way. Or it did until Arizona decided they'd had enough of this fuckery and hit the Seahawks back. The Seahawks can be hit back, but unfortunately, the Saints defense lacks the personnel of the Arizona Cardinals, and fortunately for the Seahawks, they don't have to worry about the Cardinals showing up because they didn't make the playoffs. Drew Brees and the Saints won against the high-powered Philly offense by basically keeping them off the field and relying on their running backs Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, and Brees made the necessary plays. This is all fine and good when you're playing the Eagles. The Seahawks are another story and playing keep-away becomes infinitely more difficult when you roll into Seattle with 60,000 screaming lunatics (plus another 130,000 piped in through the PA system) and Pete Carroll lays out the Adderall spread for his defensive backs. It won't be the massacre the last matchup was, but Seattle's defense will probably make a few plays and Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch will grind out the rest from there.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Saints 17

Saturday 8:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
The lone game that isn't a rematch of a regular season game, but this Patriots/Colts Prime Time matchup makes up for it by being a revival of one of the more hotly contested rivalries of the past decade. Though the lack of Peyton Manning in this game kind of takes a little of the juice out of the matchup, it's still a solid matchup of old rivals. Now, the AFC games seem to be more difficult to pick, and their two games are more or less crapshoots. This game, for all intents and purposes, seems to favor the Patriots. They're in their element, at home, with Tom Brady running the show and an offense that can move the ball and score points even if Brady were throwing the ball to Lucas Duda. On the other side, the Colts defense got torched by Alex Smith and the Chiefs last weekend and were only fortunate enough that Andrew Luck kept his cool and led them all the way back from 28 points down to win. Luck's performance will certainly go down in NFL Lore, and it certainly would give you the impression that no situation is too daunting for him. That being said, I tend to lean towards experience and the Hot Hand. While the Colts certainly indicated that they're no pushover, and while the Patriots have laid their fair share of home playoff stinkers over the past few years, Luck doesn't have Tom Brady's resume.
Pick: Patriots 37, Colts 30

Sunday 1:00pm
San Francisco 49ers (13-4) at Carolina Panthers (12-4)
A rematch of what's probably the hardest-hitting game of the regular season, a 10-9 slog that probably served as the 49ers most galling loss of the season. The game seemed to be a bit of a microcosm of the offensive woes that the 49ers had over a majority of the season, while also illustrating how potent Carolina's defense can be. In the game, the 49ers had three early-game drives that they couldn't finish, and settled for 3 Field Goals. In the end, these squandered opportunities allowed the 10 points Carolina was able to muster to be good enough to win the game. Since then, the Panthers rode the momentum of that victory to a First-Round bye, while the 49ers got themselves healthy, won a Wildcard and a Road Playoff game to get to this point. Healthy is the key thing here, because it really bit the 49ers in the ass in the first matchup with Carolina. Michael Crabtree wasn't active and Vernon Davis left with a concussion. Anquan Boldin was bottled up, leaving Colin Kaepernick with the option of throwing to Vance McDonald and Kyle Williams, and the result was that he spent too much time looking around a collapsing pocket before sailing doomed passes or, worse, getting sacked. The Panthers won, but that's not to say that they had much success on offense, either. Cam Newton generated only 169 yards through the air while completing only 50% of his passes, while the game's lone touchdown came on a busted run by DeAngelo Williams and the winning score came on a prayer 53-yard Field Goal by Graham Gano in the 4th Quarter.

The point is, the fact that the Panthers won the game doesn't necessarily mean that they dominated, and asking them to repeat the success they had against a 49ers team that is now healthy and really starting to click is a tall order, especially considering that a) Steve Smith, their elder statesman and top playmaker on offense is hurting and b) For a majority of this group, this is their first Playoff game. The 49ers are a playoff-toughened bunch that seems to raise their level of play the further into January they get. Colin Kaepernick came off an inconsistent regular season and really took over their Wildcard matchup in Green Bay, showing up without sleeves in 3˚ weather and making plays with his arm and his legs and looking very much like the force he posed as last January. You know, when this group was 5 yards away from winning a Championship.

Sure, the 49ers are kind of becoming the darlings of the league right now and getting quite a bit of hype, and when you take into account the 3-year run of success they're on, they've earned it. But a really good, young Panthers team is kind of getting written off a little bit, through no fault of their own. But if they want to have success in this game, they're going to have to set an early tone. The 49ers, early in the season, had a habit of starting slow. Over the final half of the regular season and last week in Green Bay, they've started off on fire offensively, moving the ball at will. The key would be if they can finish drives with Touchdowns rather than Field Goals, and extend their success through the remainder of the game. After one quarter last weekend, the 49ers looked like they were going to blow the Packers out, but only led 6-0. This happened against Carolina, too. But if the 49ers finish drives early and get Newton in a situation where he's going to have to lead the Panthers back from behind in his first career playoff game and all the emotions that entails, this game could get away from Carolina quickly. Even if the 49ers don't go ahead early, the Panthers still have to deal with an offense that's much more complete than the one they faced in November, and in the end, the health and experience of the 49ers is what's going to carry the day.
Pick: 49ers 20, Panthers 10

Sunday 4:30pm
San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
Another one I can't seem to figure out. Of course, as is usually the case when division rivals meet in the playoffs, the old "Familiarity breeds contempt" adage is in full effect. These two teams met twice in the regular season, with the road team winning both times. The SuperDuperChargers come into this game on an emotional roll, sneaking themselves into the playoffs and then beating the Bengals, while the Broncos have rode the Peyton Manning express to another 13 wins and a #1 seed. 13 wins and a #1 seed seems to be the M.O. for Manning's career, and usually it's followed up by an abject stinker in the Divisional round. Any and all logic would dictate that Manning and the Broncos would roll over the low, leaky Chargers and Philip Rivers, but Rivers has had a bit of a career rebirth under coach Mike McCoy's system and have gotten to this point in spite of no support and seemingly impossible odds. The Chargers won last weekend by running the ball down the Bengals' throats and making a number of key defensive plays, among them 4 turnovers. Logic would dictate that the Broncos won't make the same kind of mistakes that the Bengals did, but then again, stranger things have happened in the NFL. Particularly when it's the weird, Sunday 4pm Divisional Round game. The Red Flags seem to be in full view. Peyton Manning and his spotty playoff record. The Broncos shitting the bed in this same situation last year against an opportunistic Ravens team that was working under some higher mojo. A Chargers defense that's had the hot hand. Philip Rivers and his bizarre bolo tie. Peyton Manning and his Pizza. I know my head is saying to make the safe pick and take Denver, but, hey, I've got too many premonitions going on and I'm not putting any actual money on this, so what the hell. I'm going to be a hero.
Pick: Chargers 30, Broncos 27

Strange as it may seem, but after this weekend, there's only 3 meaningful games remaining in the NFL season (unless for whatever reason you are really into the Pro Bowl). If these games go as expected, you can expect some real slugfests to play out in all three of them. Don't forget to use your Clay Matthews, III deodorant after the game! Fuck the Panthers!

Return To The Big Time

The NFL season is basically a blur. The NFL Playoffs are anything but. Even though there's still the same amount of time in between games, it often can feel like weeks before they take the field. I've know that the 49ers would be in the Playoffs for some time; it was more or less a foregone conclusion that they'd be there somehow, even when they looked their worst. But here they are, and along with 7 other teams, they begin the chase for the Big Game this weekend, while the Big Boys get to sit back and watch these teams beat each other up in what appears to be a series of bone-chilling affairs, culminating in what's shaping up to be the bone-chillingest of them all on Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. Here now, my picks for the weekend:

Saturday, 4:30pm
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
The Chiefs and Colts basically both made it to this point without much drama. The Chiefs did it by fattening up on a pillow-soft schedule early, racing out to a 9-0 start before coming back to earth down the latter half of the season. The Colts got off to a hot start, cooled off over the middle of the season after Reggie Wayne got hurt, and then retooled themselves to finish strong. The Colts can also boast to having beaten Denver, San Francisco and Seattle, all of whom are among the top teams in the league. The Chiefs have ridden the recipe of Alex Smith's smarts and Jamaal Charles' power running, and a tough defense that ranked among the tops in the league. But their schedule has dogged them and few believe they're as good as their record might indicate. The Colts, on the other hand, have Andrew Luck and are well served by a breakout season by T.Y. Hilton. Their running game is presumed to be weak because Trent Richardson is a colossal dud, but Donald Brown is kind of a sneaky-dangerous all purpose back. I picked the Colts to win last year in Baltimore but they weren't quite there yet. This year, I think they're ready for a deeper playoff run.
Pick: Colts 24, Chiefs 17

Saturday, 8:00pm
New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
One of those games that confounds people. By all accounts, the Saints should probably wipe the floor with Philadelphia. They're easily the better team, Drew Brees is on top of his game and all their pieces are in place. And yet whenever they go on the road in the playoffs, no matter how good they look, they have this tendency to turn to mush. The Seahawks did it to them in 2010, the 49ers did it to them in 2011, and now here they are, going to Philadelphia in this weekend's Cold Game #1, to face the Eagles, NickFolean Dynamite and their Blur Offense that, once it got going, really propelled the Eagles to this point. True, the Eagles sort of happened into winning the NFC East primarily because nobody else wanted to win the Division, but digging a little deeper reveals the fact that the Eagles have the best Running Back in the NFL right now in LeSean McCoy and a Quarterback in Nick Foles who does not make mistakes. It would be up to the Saints Defense, which has been better this year than in prior years, to try to force a few turnovers if they want to tilt things in their favor, but I don't know if that's going to be in the cards given how smartly Foles has played of late. More than likely, this game is going to dissolve into a shootout between the high-powered Saints and the high-paced Eagles, and in a track meet in the cold, the circumstances seem to favor the Eagles.
Pick: Eagles 44, Saints 38

Sunday, 1:00pm
San Diego Chargers (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
I waffled the most on this game. For whatever reason, I want to pick the Bengals. Not simply because they haven't won a playoff game since 1990, or because they had a decided advantage at home this season, where they've been 8-0, or because they've got this nice underdog spirit behind Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, and a good defense. They just seem like it's their time. And yet I can't seem to shake the idea that this is just a setup for Philip Rivers to come roaring in, slinging some weird sidearm passes around to guys like Keenan Allen and Seyi Ajirotutu and Antonio Gates and just giving the Cincinnati fans one more giant shitburger to carry them into the Winter. This is Cold Game #2, and a rematch of the legendary Freezer Bowl back in the 1981 postseason, where the enduring image is of poor Dan Fouts fluttering passes into a deathly wind with icicles hanging off his beard. You think Philip Rivers is the kind of guy who gives a crap about the cold? Yeah, me neither.
Pick: Chargers 24, Bengals 20

Sunday, 4:30pm
San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
But, of course, all these games are mere appetizers to my main course in the late game Sunday. Did you know that "The Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field" is really a myth? Legendary voice of NFL Films John Facenda never actually said it. It's really just a Bermanism. Plus, it's redundant, because all Tundras are, by nature, frozen. So let's just get past all this Lambeau Field mystique crap and get to the point: It's going to be Really Fucking Cold in Green Bay on Sunday, because that's what happens in Green Bay in January. And while we're on the subject of Packer Brown-nosing, I watched NFL Network's excellent "A Football Life" series this week, where they devoted two hour-long programs to Vince Laaahm-Baaaa-Di. I know his name is synonymous with NFL royalty and I'm supposed to cream my pants at the mention of his name and the Packer Sweep, but after watching this program, I'm basically convinced that if Willy Loman were an NFL Coach, he'd be Vince Laaahm-Baaaa-Di.

Yes, it's a long-winded way of saying that I don't care for the Packers much. The Packers come into this game as the ultimate rags-to-riches tale, having lost Quarterback Aaron Rodgers to injury, suffering through weeks of losing and the indignation of a Tie Game, only to have the remainder of their division fall apart around them and Rodgers to come back and lead them to the Miracle Victory for the Ages last Sunday in Chicago. Rodgers is back, Rodgers is hot, and here we go. They get this game in their stadium, in their weather and under their circumstances.

That being said, they can't beat the 49ers. For as great as Aaron Rodgers is, he's not able to carry the entire game on his back, and the 49ers are just a better put-together team than the Packers are. San Francisco comes into this game having kind of quietly put together a 6-game winning streak, to say nothing of the fact that a majority of this roster is still kind of quietly steaming over their loss last February. Also of note is that in two previous meetings, Colin Kaepernick has completely shredded the Packers. Last year, he did it with his legs. So the Packers muscled up and sold out to stop him from running. The result was that in Week 1 this season, Kaepernick shredded them with his arm, and this was when his receiving corps consisted of Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and Me. Now, he's got a full arsenal at his disposal, while Green Bay's defense hasn't improved much over the course of the season. On the other side, while Rodgers may have saved the Packers' asses last week at the end, he didn't look great for a majority of the game, and their run game may suffer with Eddie Lacy ailing. The Packers and Rodgers took advantage of an awful Bears defense last weekend. The 49ers defense, who incidentally went the entire season without allowing a 100-yard rusher, is significantly better than the Bears defense, and I don't think I need to go into the sordid details.

Then, there's the weather. I know everyone wants to say "Ooooooooh, Packers Weather!" etc, etc, and yeah, to a certain extent that may be true. But once you start getting into temperatures in the single digits or below zero, the weather will affect you whether you're used to it or not. So for anyone who wants to make a stink about the delicate 49ers playing in the harsh cold, well, the Packers have to play in it too, and I don't believe they played in any games this season where the game time temperature was 3˚ with a forecast low of -20˚. So throw the weather theories out the window, because it's going to suck for both sides. This game comes down to talent and mental toughness, and the 49ers have the Packers beat on both counts.
Pick: 49ers 33, Packers 20

What, you're surprised? Go enjoy the games! Have a Blast! Eat some Peyton Manning Pizza! Fuck the Packers!

Re-Humbled

One would have thought that the 49ers, coming off a game where they were not only beaten, but really humbled by the Seattle Seahawks, would respond with a performance where they took out their frustrations on the Indianapolis Colts. Unfortunately, this didn't happen. The Colts, who lack the defensive prowess of the Seahawks, nonetheless had their way with the 49ers, running the ball down their throats and preventing the offense from getting any sort of momentum going, eventually pulling away late and skipping town with a 27-7 victory.

Nothing good happened for the 49ers on Sunday, the second straight time I've had to say that. It's not only Colin Kaepernick's first home loss since becoming the starting Quarterback, it's also the first time under Jim Harbaugh that the 49ers have lost 2 games in a row. Their record, now 1-2, isn't at all where anyone would have figured they'd be at this point, and places them in worse standing than teams like the Jets or the Cowboys.

Injuries, something the 49ers really haven't had to deal with much over the past few years, have struck the 49ers and right now, it's catching up with them. The loss of Michael Crabtree is severely hindering Kaepernick right now, and compounded with Vernon Davis not being able to play due to last week's hamstring injury left Kap, well, hamstrung. Stuck without a real weapon at receiver, the Colts were able to jam Anquan Boldin at the line of scrimmage and stick him in tight man coverage. The other receivers, Quinton Patton, Kassim Osgood and Marcus Marcusson, were non-factors and will continue to be so unless they can prove themselves worthy of the position. More alarmingly, Kap appeared gunshy after being beaten down by the Seahawks. This is a Quarterback who threw for over 300 yards in the Super Bowl, and two weeks ago topped 400 yards, and two weeks in a row he's looked like a skittish Rookie, afraid to zing the ball into a tight target. The 49ers one Touchdown drive came primarily on the ground. If they're going to have success, Kap has to get over this fear and just throw the ball down the field. The reason the 49ers got to the Super Bowl last year is because of this, and he's got to be able to find that confidence again.

Yes, the ground game worked for the first time all season, with Gore rushing for 85 yards, or, 25 more than he'd gained to this point all season, and Kendall Hunter chipped in with a nice rushing touchdown. But the 49ers have scored 10 points in the last 2 weeks with only one of these departments working, and in general neither has really worked that well.

Defensively, the 49ers did OK, but just OK. A general lack of discipline has led to a rash of penalties, which started biting the 49ers in the ass from the very first play of the game when Donte Whitner was flagged for a helmet hit (despite the fact that the replays revealed he hit with his shoulder, not his helmet). And they were costly penalties to boot, several of which helped the Colts continue drives and control the tempo of the game. The Colts raced down the field on their opening possession of the game and scored a Touchdown. Their subsequent drives over the 2nd and 3rd quarters either resulted in Punts or Field Goals, but by continuing to run the ball and smash the 49ers in the face, they a) Controlled the clock and b) Wore down the 49ers Defense. Much like last week, the game was very much in reach after 3 quarters, with the Colts hanging on to a 13-7 lead. All it was going to take was a good, solid drive that ended in a Touchdown. But the 49ers, unable to sustain a drive, could barely move the ball past midfield, and eventually, the Colts wore the 49ers down and Andrew Luck, the former disciple of Jim Harbaugh, beat the 49ers at their own game with an Option run for a Touchdown.

Now in desperation mode, Kaepernick was sacked and fumbled the ball back to Indy, giving the Colts the opportunity to rub some salt in the wound by scoring another Touchdown to put the game out of reach. With nothing left to lose, Kap completed some passes, but ultimately a desperation drive was stopped by an end zone Interception, to finish off a wholly miserable effort.

The 49ers really need to make a concerted effort to try to get back to basics. The read option that Kaepernick excels in hasn't really been utilized that much to this point this season. Perhaps it's a bit of playing possum, but I'm hard pressed to think that Jim Harbaugh would coach that way, particularly when it's led to a couple of losses. More likely, it's just that Kaepernick doesn't have the weapons he had last year. Crabtree's injury has screwed things up more than anyone will let on, and Anquan Boldin, good as he is, is better suited as the complimentary receiver than the go-to guy. And add the loss of Vernon Davis to the mix, and all of a sudden this offense is looking kind of ordinary.

But one thing the 49ers have going for them is that Harbaugh is a good, smart coach and Kaepernick is really talented. And it's only Week 3 and there's plenty of time to right the ship. But there's a lot of room for doubt to creep in, particularly given the sprint that the season is, and the fact that Seattle junked the Jaguars to race out to a 3-0 start and a 2-game lead in the Division. One fear I've had is that this could end up being a repeat of the Mets/Phillies rivalry in '07. The 49ers were a whisker from a Championship last season and appeared universal favorites to get back. But their chief rival, Seattle, thinks they're the better team and has gone out hell bent to prove it, while the 49ers are muddling away. And we know how this turns out. The Phillies won a World Series Championship while the Mets are still trying to get their thumbs out of their asses. Hopefully this is just one of my irrational cross-sport theories that doesn't work. But the 49ers need to fix some things right now, and they've got a quick turnaround this week, as they have the high pleasure of going out to St. Louis to play the Rams on Thursday night. The Rams, who gave the 49ers all sorts of fits last year on a short week? This doesn't exactly look encouraging for the 49ers right now. 

Media Darlings

As usual, I've waited until the Morning of the first Wildcard games to make my picks. Usually it's been out of general laziness. This year, it's only partially out of general laziness. I've also had a bit of a crisis of conscience about picking these games, because I've got a horse in this race, even if the 49ers aren't playing this weekend. Also, the two NFC Teams that seem to be drawing the most favor this weekend are also the two Flavors Of The Week, one of whom I'm going to have to deal with watching come 8pm next Saturday. I'll mention them when I get to picking the games, but just for clarity's sake, these are the teams that everyone's fawning over, showering their Quarterback with all sorts of praise, and basically handing them a clear path through to Championship Weekend. These teams get enough ink and enough jock-rubbing that if you root for another involved team, it's really begun to get irritating, and you want one of their opponents—preferably your team—to knock them in the mouth and put them in their place. But I digress. They've got their own problems this week, and I'm just going to sit back and watch it unfold  before I worry about which team the 49ers will face.

Saturday, 4:30pm
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) at Houston Texans (12-4)
If this seems familiar, that's because it is. These two teams met in the same game at the same time last season, with the Texans, behind 3rd String Quarterback T.J. (Don't call me Tyler!) Yates. The Bengals made some mistakes and the Texans pulled away in the second half for a relatively easy victory. A lot of what I've been hearing this week involves the Texans (as an aside, I find the Houston Texans, currently the NFL's youngest franchise, to be rather cumbersome. Even typing this out, I find I instinctively will type Houston Titans, which never existed, although the team that is now the Titans used to be the Houston Oilers, the perennially lame-duck franchise that was rumored to move for years until they actually did. Houston got another team 6 years later, which baffled me, and they had to suffer through the stigma of having David Carr as their franchise Quarterback for too many years, but now they've gotten it together) slumping late in the regular season and the Bengals hungry for a playoff victory, not having won a Playoff game since 1990, when their Quarterback was the cranky Boomer Esiason. Some signs may point to Cincinnati having an edge here, but I can't say I see it. Houston got off to a really fast start before regressing later in the season, but by that point, their playoff spot, and a home game, were all well-assured. Cincinnati has been one of those annoyingly inconsistent teams all season; the fact that they're the #6 seed tells you that they basically just happened into a Playoff berth (this usually is the case with 1 or 2 teams each season, and it's almost always the #6 seed). Basically, they ended up being the best of a bunch of marginal teams (you can lump them in with non-playoff teams like Pittsburgh, San Diego, the Jets, etc that just flat out stunk), and were helped out by the fact that the AFC was full of bottom feeders this season. Teams like that tend not to last very long in the Playoffs, and usually they're long forgotten by the time Championship Weekend rolls around.
Prediction: Houston 27, Cincinnati 17

Saturday, 8:00pm
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Have you heard about the Packers? Lemme tell you, they got a great Quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, he throws the ball all over the field and does a really cool dance whenever the Packers score a Touchdown. And on Defense, they have this awesome Linebacker named Clay Matthews (III) who has wild blonde hair and flexes his muscles on the field. These guys are the COOLEST!!! They're going to the SUPER BOWL!!! Packers, Packers, Packers! Lambeau Leap! Frozen Tundra! Vince Laahm-Baaah-Di!

Pardon me, I have to go vomit now.

Perhaps I could be accused of being somewhat bitter, and I can't say the Packers haven't earned some praise since they did win a Super Bowl two years ago, but the problem is that when you win a Super Bowl, and you're one of the NFL's staple franchises (see: Packers, Giants), what happens is you become pervasively annoying, so much so that many people, particularly that team's own fans, aren't even aware of it. The Packers won Super Bowl XLV, Aaron Rodgers started doing TV commercials, Clay Matthews, III (and it's time we made note of the fact that he's Clay Matthews, III., in deference to his father, an outstanding LB in his own right, and his grandfather, who also played in the NFL—if Robert Griffin, III can do it, so can he) was all over the place, even some of their lesser known players like Greg Jennings are on Commercials. Just be thankful Brett Favre isn't still around. And there's the whole Lambeau Field mystique and the cheeseheads...It's getting a little tired. I suppose knocking the Packers makes me somehow anti-American or something, but I don't care. I don't like them. The problem is, they're going to be playing this game at home, it's probably going to be about 20 degrees out in Wisconsin, they're pissed off because they think they should have had the #2 seed and a bye, and everyone is feeding into this.

They're playing a Vikings team that beat them last week, and while Adrian Peterson, who is simply a delight to watch, gashed them last week and may well gash them again, but their Quarterback, Christian Ponder, is, at best, middling, particularly when outdoors. There are ways that Minnesota could keep this game close, but it involves a lot of ball control and luck, and hope that Aaron Rodgers can be pressured into mistakes. It's possible, because of the Packers' general lack of a running attack, but I don't think the Vikings will be the team to do it tonight.
Prediction: Green Bay 33, Minnesota 20

Sunday, 1:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Two teams that have sort of done it on smoke and mirrors. This is the one game I've had the hardest time figuring out. The Colts have sort of made it this far on Luck, both the literal luck and their Rookie Quarterback Andrew Luck, winning a number of close games in spite of an aging defense and a poor running game, combined with the Mojo of ChuckStrong, and how they've rallied around their Leukemia-stricken Head Coach Chuck Pagano. The result is one of the real feel-good stories in the NFL this season. On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens are more or less the Over-The-Hill gang on defense, as evidenced by their great linebacker Ray Lewis announcing this will be the last time he'll do his annoying dance (A word on Ray Lewis: Great player, yes. Hall of Fame Linebacker, yes. But let's not forget that he was almost sent to jail in 2000, and let's not even put him in the same ballpark as Lawrence Taylor as far as "Best Linebacker Ever" is concerned). They've had a season similar to Houston, where they started off hot and then came back to earth. They also have an erratic Quarterback in Waka Flacco, who's the kind of Quarterback who you may not often win because of, but you'll sure as hell lose because of (and as an aside on Flacco, I've gone on record as calling him the Ted Lilly of the NFL: He's got a modicum of talent, but he's incredibly wimpy-looking. He can blow up at any second, and he constantly looks like he's about to burst into tears and cry for his mother). They've also benefited from a good deal of luck. So, someone's luck is about to run out. I think it's Baltimore's turn.
Prediction: Indianapolis 23, Baltimore 20 (OT)

Sunday, 4:30pm
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Washington Redskins (10-6)
Bill Simmons wrote in his column yesterday that if the Seahawks could have stopped Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals in week 1, they would have been 12-4, won the NFC West and had the #2 seed and a bye this week. Well, they didn't, so they're on the road, away from their loud stadium and obnoxious fans. Lightly regarded at the beginning of the season, Seattle has sort of rode this groundswell of a hotshot Rookie Quarterback and a thundering running back, and a chippy Head Coach who skips around the sidelines and runs up the score, and an opportunistic defense that may or may not be full of cheaters. They hung around and hung around and won a few really close games, and then they started to believe it, and they started to rip up several opponents, including the 49ers. But I'm still not convinced. They've taken advantage of some pretty weak teams, and a 49ers team that was injured and unprepared. And on the road. Should they have to face the 49ers again, it'll be in San Francisco. Unlike the Packers, they're being anointed without actually having won anything, so I'm really hoping that someone steps up and puts them and their stupid coach in their place.

Unfortunately, I don't think the Redskins can do that. Though Washington has had a great season of their own, has won 7 games in a row, and boasts a team somewhat similar to the Seahawks (minus the annoying coach and cheating defenders), their defense isn't quite as good as Seattle's. They won't come out and start blasting people out of the box. But what I am interested in is to see just how Robert Griffin, III and Alfred Morris handle what's probably the toughest defense they've seen all year. To the Redskins' credit, they've eked out a number of close victories, but not against any teams that had a really good defense. What I do know is that this won't be a romp for Seattle. They've really walked over some lesser teams (the fact that Pete Carroll insistently continues to pass and fake punts when the game is out of reach may have something to do with it), and while they'll probably beat Washington, this will probably be more shootout than cakewalk.
Prediction: Seahawks 37, Redskins 31

So, there you have it. If this makes some sense, more power to me. Whatever happens, the 49ers will, I'm sure, be ready for whoever shows up in San Francisco next Saturday.

Big Game Bonanza!

All Right, so it's here at last, THE BIG GAME with the Colts and the Saints and the John Madden Meatballs and the Frank Gifford Hoopla and the Joe Buck Hair Gel. I'd like to say that I have some great, deep thoughts about how this game is going to go, but after watching how the Conference Championships went two weeks ago, I don't think there's much to figure out.

This is the Colts game to lose. Period. The Jets came out with a great game plan in the Championship game, had a lead, and the Colts (read: PEYTON MANNING) just made a few adjustments and ended up swatting them away like flies. On the other hand, the Saints came out and moved the ball, or at least appeared to move the ball against Minnesota, but they couldn't stop the Vikings. They only won that game because the Vikings basically turned into the team I knew they were all season long: A talented, but fundamentally weak team that would implode in a pressure situation. Adrian Peterson couldn't hold on to the ball, Brett Favre made his typical Brett Favre mistake, the Saints got a couple of breaks and won the game in an overtime thriller.

If the Saints come out and put forth a similar defensive effort against the Colts, they're going to lose by 30 points. The Vikings were a mistake prone team and the Colts just don't make mistakes. The only way the Saints can win is if they move the ball, but slowly, rather than the fast break, shoot down the field method that's worked for them all season. Yes, as we've learned in the past, ANYTHANG'SPOSSABULLLL! A lot of people have been going with the underdog and picking the Saints. They've become a very chic pick these past couple of weeks, and it's somewhat similar to the number of people that picked the Jets in the AFC Championship (something I did myself). But this season, the NFL has yet to figure out how, exactly, to stop the Colts at full strength. Unless someone comes up and pops Peyton Manning in the jaw and knocks him out of the game, the Saints are going to have to play a perfect game x2 to beat Indianapolis today. Sorry, New Orleans, sorry, lovers of the underdog. These games have a habit of being slow to develop and lacking in pace, before there's some sort of late flurry. I think the Saints can keep it a game, but the Colts have ridiculous killer instinct and they put it away late.
My pick: Colts 41, Saints 30