Delusions Of Grandeurson

To state the obvious, the Curtis Granderson signing by itself won't make the Mets into a Playoff team. In fact, it's no sure thing that the signing will even make them a contending team right away. Granderson, who will be 33 on Opening Day of 2014, is coming off a season completely undercut by a pair of freak injuries, switching leagues for the first time and moving to a ballpark that's decidedly un-friendly to hitters.

And yet, I have absolutely nothing bad to say about the move.

Skeptics seem to point to Granderson's signing potentially being another Jason Bay-type disaster, and for all we know, that could very well happen. Granderson's career arc doesn't necessarily posit that he's due for that kind of a serious dropoff (Unlike Jason Bay, I never referred to Granderson as an overglorified Gabe Kapler). First of all, Granderson actually seemed like he wanted to come to the Mets. Jason Bay seemed to come to the Mets because nobody else would take him. But it goes deeper than that. While playing most of his formative years in spacious Comerica Park, Granderson was a gap hitter who hit a lot of doubles and triples (his 23 in 2007 led the AL) and scored a lot of runs. When he moved to the cute little bandbox in the Bronx, those doubles and triples were suddenly flying out of the ballpark, which led to 41 and 43 Home Run seasons in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Nobody's hitting 40 Home Runs a season playing half their games in Citi Field, but a more likely scenario would see Granderson's Home Runs drop off and his doubles and triples increase again. Point is, he's used to simply hitting line drives, so the park factor won't fuck up his head the way it did to Bay.

Also, the specter of playing in the media vacuum that is New York can mess up some sensitive-types. Jason Bay came to New York after spending many years in Pittsburgh obscurity and surrounded by a galaxy of stars in Boston before coming to the Mets with the expectations of being The Man and rescuing the Mets from a down season (the fact that things were already too far gone is besides the point; we really hadn't accepted that as truth yet). After a slow start, he pressed and never recovered. Granderson arrives with the Mets having already spent 4 years playing in New York for that other team, so he's used to the basic craziness of the whole thing. Granderson is also one of those gregarious, outgoing types, who's more likely to fire back some witty retorts when faced with criticism. Additionally, Granderson is joining a team that's taking a step forward in rebuilding. He doesn't have to be The Man. He just has to do what he does and help make the players around him better. This is also something he's generally used to doing. He's not a savior and nobody is viewing him as such. Or, at least, they shouldn't be (the real savior is going to miss playing with Granderson for a year, assuming things go as planned).

Really, the best thing about the Granderson signing is that it happened at all. After about a month of Free Agency chatter and a tepid amount of player movement, the Mets fans were really starting to get restless. This was supposed to be the Offseason where things finally started to happen for the Mets to bring them out of this 5-year abyss. Nobody was amused by the Chris Young signing, particularly when, for a while there, it looked like that was all the Mets were going to do. But then the Granderson rumors picked up steam and finally it became official last Friday morning. Finally, the Mets had gone out and done something of consequence. It's been a long time since the Mets made a Free Agent signing of some note, and that it's someone that fans can really get behind makes it that much better. It means that the days of us Mets fans having to talk ourselves into the idea that somehow Shaun Marcum is a shrewd Free Agent pickup are (probably) finally over.

If anything, the Granderson deal is probably more like the Pedro Martinez signing back in 2005 as far as the statement it makes. Pedro was past his prime and probably signed for a year longer than the Mets should have given him, but they had to bring him in and they couldn't fuck it up. Once Pedro signed, and made it clear that this was where he wanted to be, other Free Agents saw that the Mets were serious about putting together a winning team and pretty soon, guys like Carlos Beltran, Billy Wagner and others were coming on board. Pedro didn't ultimately perform to the worth of his contract (though not for lack of effort), but no Mets fan can possibly think it was a bad move for how it eventually set the team up for success. Of course, that was fleeting success, but it was fun while it lasted, wasn't it? This is what the Mets are doing with the Granderson move. It's a 4-year contract, which will last until he's 37 and probably on the downside of his career, but that's irrelevant. The Mets are a big-market team and should be able to absorb a few bad contracts assuming the economics fall into place.

By signing Granderson, the Mets are finally making good on the promise they've continually made to their fans that 2014 would be the year things finally got better. By signing Granderson, the Mets are sending a message to other Free Agents that this is a team players want to come to (and Granderson said as much in his press conference Tuesday). They're sending the message that this 5-year journey through Hell is finally coming to an end and the team is going to get serious about winning once again. Granderson's effect on the Mets may not be obvious immediately, but in time, it will pay off.

What A Putz!

The move made to sign Francisco Rodriguez was more or less a no-brainer. And the signing was made even easier given the terms of the contract that the Mets have given him. With the Bullpen being the #1 problem that the Mets had over the past two seasons, this was a clear and necessary move. As soon as the offer seemed close to completion, the e-mails began flying around. I personally loved the move. Consider that 3 years ago, the Mets gave Billy Wagner a 4 year contract worth even more money. Now, consider that, at the time, Wagner was a 10-year veteran at age 35. Consider that Rodriguez is a playoff-tested veteran in his own right with a similar lights-out track record at age 27, and the deal is fabulous for the Mets. 3 years for a closer isn't overcommitting to Rodriguez, and the money certainly isn't a payroll-buster by any stretch of the imagination.

But that couldn't be the only move made to the Bullpen. It could only be a nice start to moving in a positive direction. Other moves would certainly be necessary. Perhaps the bigger names, Fuentes, Hoffman or Wood, would be in the mix, or if not, other, non-tendered guys would have to be brought in to push the existing names that would survive the offseason. But other moves were necessary. As I mentioned in my 2005 Capsule, it's often the names that arrive in trades that you don't necessarily consider. And late Wednesday night, Minaya and the Mets made such a move, in another brilliant deal to bring in J.J. Putz from the Seattle Mariners in a massive 3-team, 12-player deal.

Here's why I like the move:

Putz, at 32, will be the 8th inning answer. In 2007, he was clearly the best reliever in the AL, before being slowed by injuries in 2008. His talent is evident, a 97-99MPH fastball combined with a diving splitter netted him 40 saves and a 1.38 ERA in '07. He's a guy who can get out just about anyone, and not be spotted simply as a situational guy. The change of scenery from a conflicted clubhouse in Seattle to New York should only help.

I also like the spare parts the Mets got as well. Sean Green isn't someone I know much about, but he's a new face and some fresh blood to try out there. Jeremy Reed is a burner who projects as a 4th Outfielder type, but, again, a new face.

Putting Putz in front of Rodriguez (or even having Putz spell Rodriguez on certain days) gives the Mets a 1-2 punch that they simply have not had out of the bullpen in 2 years, and certainly a combination that far outdistances Heilman/Sanchez and Wagner as far as pure heat. These are guys that will, more often than not, get the job done. This was something that nobody could be counted on to do, especially as last season drew to a close. Rodriguez himself could mean a 10-win differential for the Mets. In either of the last two seasons, that would have been the difference between a Division Title and a trip home. Putz as the bridge from the starter (assuming the starter goes 7, I think you can count on that from Santana and Pelfrey on most days, Maine and whoever on certain days) should only strengthen that argument.

The Mets also could have done quite a bit of addition by subtraction in these deals as well. Gone are:

1) Aaron Heilman, who can enjoy going 8-11 with a 5.13 ERA as Seattle's 4th starter. Won't be missing him at all.

2) Joe Smith, who I would have liked to keep, but in reality, he's a situational righty in a bullpen that was comprised almost exclusively of situational guys that always backfired.

3) Endy Chavez, who I hate to see go. Endy will forever hold a place in the hearts of all Mets fans, no doubt. But in reality, you have to give up to get, and Endy Chavez wasn't going to make or break the fortunes of the 2009 Mets. Replacing Endy with Jeremy Reed is more or less a wash, plus Reed is 3 years younger. Besides, the Left Field wall in Citi Field is 16 feet high. Endy isn't going to scale that wall to rob any HRs.

4-7) Jason Vargas (Yawn), Mike Carp (Ditto), Maikel Cleto and Ezequiel Carrera (If you're at all concerned, I've linked to their Baseball Reference pages so you can see that they're not quite what you would consider a Major League prospect).

On paper, yes, the Mets look like they gave up a lot. In reality, this deal could prove to be a heist for the Mets. If nothing else, it's certainly a step in the right direction, and a good step towards completely re-inventing the nightmare that was the Mets bullpen, replacing the question marks with Winners.

Hot Stove 101

I belong to a small Mets e-mail circle amongst some friends. During the season, it consists mainly of state of the team kind of missives fired at each other every few weeks. It's also where my annual Mets Report Card began, something I've continued at the current time. When I'm feeling salty (or uninspired), I may post a previous year's report card just for shits and giggles, but that's neither here nor there.

At any rate, with the offseason in full swing, I've found myself deluged with e-mails suggesting different ways the Mets can improve themselves. Now, I should mention that, along with myself, the major contributors to this circle are as follows:

Subject A: Likes to kick off debates by suggesting a barrage of moves, each one resulting from the previous, as if a chain reaction.

Subject B: Disagrees with everything. Way too into Sabermetrics. Also was way to into Benny Agbayani and, after him, Timo Perez.

Subject C: Has been saying the Mets "Need to go young" for the past decade.

Subject D: Just the facts, please (This is me).

There are also some lesser figures in this circle, who often remain sideline to these debates, which, believe me, can become long winded. Hot Stove Baseball simply does not exist without a week-long string borne out of the suggestion of a series of ridiculous trades that wouldn't ever happen, and such a string began this past weekend, meaning that it's officially Hot Stove time.

Now, bear in mind that I don't quite understand the thought process that goes into these deals, but Subject A kicked things off by suggesting the following:

1) "Trade Delgado to the Angels for Justin Speier, Erick Aybar, and a player to be named. The PTBN should be a minor league hitter with on-base skills and poor athleticism -- an A's kind of layer, not an Angels kind of player."

2) "Trade Scott Schoeneweis, Luis Castillo and cash to the Diamondbacks for Chad Tracy. (They don't need Tracy, he'll cost them $5 mil, and they need a 2B and 'pen lefty. Veterans may also appeal to them. We'll eat some of Castillo's contract.)"

3) "Trade Aaron Heilman, Eddie Kunz, and the PTBN to Oakland for Huston Street and Justin Duchscherer."

Within minutes, my BlackBerry was abuzz with riotous discussion, where Subject B was advocating that Subject A be fed to the wolves while the Mets deal for JJ Putz, sign Chad Cordero, trade for Javier Vazquez and sign Bobby Abreu to play LF. Subject C blasts this as utter insanity, as Daniel Murphy needs to play, and needs to play 150 games wherever he ends up playing, be it against RHP or LHP. He figures this to be in LF, since there was a minor blurb on Rotoworld stating that Murphy's defense at 2B in the Arizona Fall League was "Less than Stellar."

I decide it's time for me to chime in. I read on Rotoworld (and you can read the same thing on your lower right hand side) that a deal with Tampa involving Aaron Heilman for Andy Sonnanstine or Edwin Jackson was in the works. I figure this should throw a nice curveball into the discussion.

Subject A is still stuck on this supposed deal for Duchscherer. By Monday afternoon, the Matt Holliday deal has been made, meaning Oakland has sufficiently gutted its pitching staff to make a Duchscherer deal make even less sense for them. Knowing he's finally beat on this end, he decides to come completely out of left field and suggest that the Mets go after Trevor Hoffman. Trevor Hoffman! A 41-year old Closer who displayed frightening inconsistency and is showing signs of wear after a 17-year career. This as a potential alternative should talks with Brian Fuentes go sour.

This is one of those suggestions that makes me crazy, since I believe that the Mets have erred the past few seasons in relying too heavily on older players. I state that the only advantage to having Hoffman on the team is that the fans will get really fired up when they play AC/DC every 9th inning when Hoffman comes into the game.

Nobody agrees with me. Only Subject B seems to be even somewhat against the move, reluctantly agreeing that "Cheap and short-term sounds good to me." He then immediately jumps back to Murphy playing 2B, and that even if his defense is barely passable, he should get a shot at 2B. It's not, he states, as though Murphy is a natural in LF. Subject A agrees, and tosses Rickie Weeks into the mix, inferring that the Brewers "may be fed up" with him. Everyone agrees that this would be a great move, assuming that the Brewers could be suckered into Heilman. Stranger things have happened; they did take Guillermo Mota off our hands last year.

Since Subject A's suggestion of Weeks went over so well, he's feeling good, so he decides to toss Milton Bradley's name out there as a solution in LF. Subject C would love to roll the dice on Bradley, headcase be damned. Subject B, however, is wholeheartedly against the move. Subject B isn't a fan of the dreaded "clubhouse cancer," despite the fact that Bradley had no problems in Texas. He quickly compares Bradley to the likes of Bobby Bonilla, Vince Coleman and Bret Saberhagen. As if to dangle a carrot in front of Subject B's face, Subject C slyly remarks that none of those guys led the league in OPS the previous season. OPS being the magic word, the one that makes Subject B drool and Subject D want to kick him in the teeth.

On that note, the entire discussion takes a brief hiatus for the night. We have to sleep sometime, don't we?

Could Be Worse...

...We could be the Florida Marlins.

The past two seasons, the Florida Marlins have shown signs that they're about to turn the corner and go on one of their improbable runs a la 2003. Unlike the Mets, who seemed to have a reliance on aging veterans, the Marlins were a young team, built mostly out of the prospects received in trades when some of their young stars became to expensive to retain. It was unfortunate, and rather embarrassing, that the Marlins weren't able to keep their championship team of 2003 together for a longer period of time, but, so be it. It's hard to get too broken up about a team in your own division that can't seem to build upon anything they do.

Such is the case once again. Last November, I picked the Marlins to make a major step forward, contend with the Mets and hop over Philly to win the NL Wildcard in 2008. About 3 weeks later, the Marlins dealt their best hitter and, arguably, their best pitcher, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, to the Detroit Tigers for a roster's worth of Minor League talent, very few of whom played a role with the team in '08.

The 2008 Marlins again hung tough, and were right there with the Mets and Philly before fading down the stretch. This young team was becoming a cohesive unit, with guys like Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham and Hanley Ramirez finding themselves, and a young pitching staff that was rapidly improving. After the Marlins successfully kicked the Mets in the nuts the final weekend of the season, I figured, once again, that the Marlins would continue to get better and more than likely pass the Mets in 2009, unless the Mets did something major.

Instead, the Marlins are breaking themselves up again. It was one thing when Mike Jacobs was quietly dealt to Kansas City for a pitching prospect. Odd, yes, but Jacobs was due a big raise in Arbitration, and with players like Dallas McPherson and Jorge Cantu clogging up the infield, Jacobs was certainly an expendable commidity. But last night, the Marlins did it again, dealing streaky outfielder Josh Willingham and talented headcase Scott Olsen to the Washington Nationals, again for a package of Minor Leaguers headlined by 2Bman Emilio Bonifacio, which would lead you to believe that a deal involving Dan Uggla is imminent.

So much for the Marlins moving forward. Right now, the best they can hope for is to stand still. Many of the pitchers and the spare pieces remain, but who knows who else is going to be dealt? Ramirez is certainly safe as he's under a long-term contract. But other young pitchers such as Anibal Sanchez or Josh Johnson could be moved as well, interesting from a team that was planning to increase their spending. They're looking at plugging these holes with prospects and raw talent that may or may not be ready yet. Certainly, the "core"of the Marlins team had done that after being mostly thrown together in 2006. Again, I'm not complaining.

On the other side, the Nationals should certainly benefit from having Willingham and Olsen around, but this deal isn't going to suddenly turn the Nationals into contenders. In an outfield that's already clogged up by Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes (Bitch!), Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena, Willingham becomes, quite possibly, the best of the bunch. On a pitching staff that was headlined by Odalis Perez and a random mishmash of awful, the sweaty (though I figure he won't sweat as much in Washington as he did in Florida), drunken Scott Olsen all of a sudden is the best pitcher on that team. This trade should improve the Nationals, and perhaps the Nats were only a player or two away from contending, but I don't think it was these two players. They've still got a lot of holes. By dealing a pair of their more talented guys to a team mostly devoid of talent, the Marlins have made things a bit easier for the Mets and Philly. They probably won't be a major contender, just a pain in the ass like they usually are. Washington? Who knows.