The More Fool You

Last weekend, I tried to be a hero and make some innovative picks based on what I believed to be some well-informed observations. Instead, I looked rather foolish as teams played straight up or generally took advantage of some controversial breaks and I ended up going 1-3 for the Wildcard Round. That's not my general pattern, but then again maybe I should have known better. The Cincinnati Bengals weren't going to go into Indianapolis and win. Though the Colts don't pose as a team of world-beaters, they were advantageously matched up against a team that has a habit of self-destructing at this juncture. A similar case unfolded in Pittsburgh, where a Steelers team that is probably better than the Ravens ended up losing because a) Their Running Back-By-Committee was doomed to fail before it even got started and b) the Ravens have a habit of turning it on at this juncture. So, now we're here in the Divisional Round where the Big Annoying Boys take the field and things really start to get interesting. Maybe. I again want to try to be a little more interesting than just going with the field, but I have the sense that this is probably going to be a more form-holding weekend than we usually get. But either way, I have an even greater sense that I'll end up looking the fool.

Saturday, 4:35pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4) 
Bad enough that the Ravens are here again, but now everyone's remembering that magical nauseating run they had two years ago where they went into New England and beat the Patriots, and if you'll recall, I picked against them in every round and they won each time. I thought they weren't that good, but somehow Wimpy Joe Flacco turns into Joe Montana in January and I'll never understand why this happens. New England, however, has put together their best team in a few years, and this is a team that finishes 12-4 and goes to the AFC Championship Game on a routine basis so that's saying something. Tom Brady is still there being Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski will probably have had his bowl of gravel for lunch, and oh by the way Darrelle Revis is lurking in the secondary. Pundits that claim to know lots of things seem to be leaning towards the Ravens because this seems to be the sort of situation where Flacco will succeed and because Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass with his feet last week and everyone needs a new Ray Lewis to hang their hat on. That's why the Patriots will win. Too much hype in the opposite direction.
Pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 24

Saturday, 8:15pm
Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
I'd heard an argument somewhere that maybe, just maybe, the Panthers can come into Seattle, run the ball, not make mistakes and keep the Seahawks off balance and give them a game. I'm not fooled. Carolina didn't play a good game last week against Arizona, but they happened to come out on top because the Cardinals were playing a 4th string Quarterback. This won't fly in Seattle. You know what's coming. The speakers are cranked up, the aluminum walls are extra tinny and the crowd noise is on queue, waiting for Cam Newton to capitulate and throw some dying quail to Richard Sherman so he can disco dance into the End Zone. This is a joke of a matchup and likely won't be interesting for more than a quarter. Make other plans for Saturday night.
Pick: Seahawks 51, Panthers 3

Sunday, 1:05pm
Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)
So the team that was 8-0 on the road goes to play the team that was 8-0 at home in this matchup of annoying teams that nobody likes but the NFL loves to cram in our faces. America's Team! Frozen Tundra! Aaron Rodgers! Tony Romo! Jerkoff head coaches! Ice Bowl! Coach Willy Loman! Woo woo woo! If you haven't puked from overexposure by the end of the 1st Quarter, I salute you, but this is the sort of matchup that the NFL and TV executives are probably peeing their pants over. Word is it's going to be -33˚ and driving snow in Green Bay, which I think is basically the weather there every day from November to April, or at least that's what the NFL wants you to believe. Meanwhile, there's still a game to be played, and stripping away the hype, you have a pair of teams that at one point or another could have been considered "The Hot Team" in the league. Dallas got off to a hot start. Green Bay was throwing 40+ points on the board each week for a while there. But they both came back to earth, and now what it boils down to is a pair of injured Quarterbacks playing in cold weather, so maybe it's better to focus elsewhere. They can both run the ball. Defense? Hmm...neither of these teams play it much. Dallas can't get out of their own way most of the time and the Packers defense is led by a second-rate commercial actor who plays football when he feels like it. What it boils down to is that this is a total snark-fest and part of me is kind of glad I booked a noon brunch so I can kind of ignore it.
Pick: Packers 45, Cowboys 34

Sunday, 4:40pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
I actually think this is the oddest matchup of the weekend. Conventional wisdom would have Peyton Manning going out, tugging his jockstrap a few times and throwing 7 Touchdown passes in the 1st half just to remind everyone that he's still the Pizza Man. And that may yet happen. The Colts, as I mentioned last week when I picked against them, don't do many things well, except that they have Andrew Luck, who may be the second coming of Manning himself, if his first few years are any indication. Denver can run and plays good defense. It's highly doubtful that the Colts can do either particularly well. But many of you know my 4pm Sunday game theory, and how in general, conventional wisdom tends to go out the window in favor of strange things happening. That, combined with the fact that strange things tend to happen to Peyton Manning in the Divisional round in general, the certain-to-be-cold weather in Denver, and the fact that he's been sort of un-Manning-like as this season has drawn on and it makes the hero in me want to show itself. There's an overthrown pass on a 3rd down play. There's a dying quail that falls into the hands of an opposing player. There's a 9-minute Touchdown drive in the 3rd Quarter. There's another game slipping away and hands are being tossed in the air and another shake of the head and a puss on the face...
Pick: Colts 23, Broncos 19

OK, ok. I couldn't resist. After all, I'm not putting any money on these games. Get your Insurance and your Pizza and your shampoo and Chunky Soup ready.

The No-Cares Bears

I feel some sort of moral obligation to make picks for the NFL Playoffs, even if the 49ers aren't involved. I suppose if I don't I might be subject to some sour grapes taunts but let's be real: The NFL Playoffs this season are going to be more about rooting against teams I don't like than anything else, and unlike the previous 3 years, I can't say I have too much of a vested interest in the whole thing. That being said, since there's no team for me to clearly root for, and plenty of teams that I don't like involved, expect a lot of snide comments and ridiculous barbs out of me while I make my picks for these next few weekends.

I suppose the one bit of solace I can take is that given how badly the 49ers played at times this season, it's probably better that they didn't make the playoffs because they stood a good chance of getting themselves bounced in an early round if they did make it, and in some ways, it's better to just not be there at all and count your losses at 8-8 than making it, getting beaten on Saturday afternoon and being "The Forgotten Team" in the playoffs like the Bengals usually are every year.

So, what is there this weekend?

Saturday, 4:20pm
Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
That the Panthers are here is by virtue of one of those little NFL quirks that gives the division champion an automatic home game, and another one of those little NFL quirks that the Panthers won a particularly awful NFC South with a sub-.500 record. But here they are, and believe it or not I think they actually have a good chance to win. The Panthers have been here before, they did win 12 games and scored themselves a 1st round bye last season (before the 49ers came to town and kicked them in the teeth), and they're facing a Cardinals team that started off 9-1 and were the darlings of the NFL before Carson Palmer got hurt, and then Drew Stanton got hurt, leaving them with journeyman Ryan Lindley at the QB helm which has kind of put their offense at a standstill. They do boast a good defense that should give Cam Newton and company fits, but I have the feeling that it won't be enough. The Panthers have the advantage of having muddled through a season where they didn't win a game for 2 months, but they won the games that counted, which ended up being their last 4 in a row, so believe it or not, the sub-.500 team is actually peaking which generally is a good thing to have happen when you're heading into the playoffs. I figure this is one of those games where the Panthers sort of lull their way to a lead, and this is one of those games where you look up and see it's the 4th Quarter and they lead by 17 points.
Pick: Panthers 23, Cardinals 9

Saturday, 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
This is one of the NFL's favorite masturbatory matchups, a rivalry game between two hated rivals, and they still want to give it that starch even if Ray Lewis isn't around to do his stupid Dougie Dance or whatever the hell it is. Somehow the Ravens are in the playoffs; they made it here as the AFC's #6 seed, the winner out of a consortium of teams that spent a majority of the season unable to get out of their own way. I believe this group included Buffalo, Houston, Kansas City, San Diego and even Miami was involved at one point, but it's the Ravens that are here, in spite of their best player being suspended in one of the NFL's stormiest scandals and Joe Flacco still looking like $120 million worth of wimpy (and if you think I'm still stewing over the Super Bowl from 2 years ago, YOU'RE RIGHT!). The Steelers have been the better team most of the season, Ben Roethlisberger has had a great year, as has WR Antonio Brown, but the issue for the Steelers right now is the availability of Le'Veon Bell, their Running Back who's proven himself to be of Frank Gore quality, but was injured late last week and is unavailable. This is a big blow to the Steelers, but even though they're forced to use one of their lesser backs, they still seem to me like they're going to advance here.
Pick: Steelers, 24, Ravens 17

Sunday, 1:05pm
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
This is a matchup between two teams that need to put up or shut up. The Bengals need a win here because they've made the playoffs every year for the last 4 seasons, and every year, they've played like schmucks and lost their first game. Generally, it's because their Quarterback, the wildly uneven Andy Dalton, has turned the ball over some ungodly number of times. The Colts need to win simply to prove that they're a more cohesive team than just some middling players with an extraordinarily talented Quarterback, Andrew Luck. Last season, the Colts were well on their way to getting embarrassed at home by Kansas City before Luck sprung to life and spearheaded a big-time comeback, and then the Colts summarily got their asses handed to them the following week in New England. Injuries play a role here too, since Cincinnati may be without Receiver A.J. Green, who was concussed last week in Pittsburgh. Indy's top receiver, T.Y. Hilton is also banged up but seems more likely to play. Tossup games like this seem to come down to running games moreso than the Quarterbacks, and here the edge goes to Cincinnati, simply because the Colts have no running game to speak of and have to rely on Luck, whereas the Bengals have a two-headed attack with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, and this could well tilt the edge in their favor. A tough call for certain, but I'll take a gamble and go with the Bengals to win their first Playoff game since the Boomer Esiason era.
Pick: Bengals 34, Colts 30

Sunday, 4:40pm
Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
This is also a real tossup game between a pair of teams that haven't had Playoff success in a long time. Dallas has won all of one Playoff game since 1997 and the Troy Aikman/Emmitt Smith regime. Detroit hasn't won one in about as long as Cincinnati has, which takes them back to when Barry Sanders was toting the rock for them and their QB was Erik Kramer (a halcyon era indeed). To compound matters, that's the Lions only postseason win in the Super Bowl Era. Dallas has had a surprisingly good season, primarily because they decided their best way to go about things was to run DeMarco Murray into the ground, eat up the clock in a majority of their games, and not try to let Tony Romo have to do too much. Romo has had a fine season for once in his life, and so the prevailing thought is that maybe he's over that general A-Rodism that overcomes him in big moments. The worry about the Cowboys is that they've been consistently mediocre in spite of a wealth of talent for so many years, that you had to think that one of these years, they might actually get out of their own way and win some games. This could be one such year, but I'm not really buying it. The same could be said of Detroit, who can match Romo with Matthew Stafford, equal parts talent and stupidity, and can match Dez Bryant with Calvin Johnson, and their RB tandem of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. The Lions also have a much better defense than Dallas, and they'll have the added benefit of having Ndamukong Suh playing this week, his suspension for stepping on Beautiful Aaron Rodgers last week having been overturned. I suppose either team could come away with the win here, but I see Detroit's defense stepping up and making plays in such a way that I don't think Dallas' defense is capable of doing. Plus isn't Romo way overdue for a real stinker of a performance? Finally, this is the 4pm Sunday game, usually a marquee matchup where something weird usually happens and things never go quite the way you'd expect it to. I see a close game, but a late Romo turnover will tilt the scales in Detroit's favor while Jerry Jones turns a Coughlin-esque shade of red.
Pick: Lions 30, Cowboys 20

So, there you have it. Enjoy the weekend if you can, and don't sit there watching these games in a mostly dark room sullenly stewing like I probably will.

Dream On

I talked last week about the tradition of Champions the 49ers had created for themselves in the 1980s and 1990s, and how it's endured through to the next generation of the franchise. The 49ers had a chance to add to that heritage on Sunday night in Super Bowl XLVII, and place themselves alongside the legends of Super Bowls past. But after once again falling far behind their opponent only to charge back in the second half, they came up five yards short of one final miracle, falling to the Baltimore Ravens 34-31.

I don't know, for the non-football audience, if there's an equivalent Mets loss that can compare to this. Maybe Game 6 in Atlanta in 1999 is close, but it's impossible to compare Baseball and Football, and I'm too much of a carcass to attempt to do so. It's taken me this long to be able to form coherent enough thoughts to write out here. To call my feelings about this somber would be an understatement. After spending most of last offseason randomly thinking about their loss to the Giants in the Championship game and what might have been, I've now got to look forward to another offseason, thinking about a close game that came down to a few plays, a few missed opportunities, and a loss that will rankle me for the next several months. Yes, I'll cheer up in a day or two and everything will get back to normal. Yes, I'll also spend a lot of time reflecting on what a great season this was, and the wild ride that took the Niners all the way down to the Super Bowl, but they couldn't bring home that 6th title. The legacy of the 49ers, to have made it to the Super Bowl so many times and always managed to emerge victorious, is now tainted. And that sucks. Many people seem to have the prevailing thought that in many ways, it's better to not make it to the Super Bowl altogether than it is to go there and lose it. A loss in the Super Bowl, constantly the most-watched sporting event of the year, can brand you with a negative label, whether it's earned or not, that you'll constantly have to overcome. I've been through slews of shitty playoff losses, I've seen the Niners hang in and lose by a hair, and I've seen them get smoked. But I've never seen them lose quite like they did last night.

The 49ers came out and appeared ready to exchange punches with the Ravens. They fell behind early, but not so much that it concerned me. They'd been playing from behind every week. Nonetheless, they would have been wise to not let Baltimore get too far ahead. Their defense, even with their deficiencies, was better than Atlanta's. And Joe Flacco came out as strong as I'd expected. To win, the 49ers would have to move the ball and score often. But this appeared to fall apart in the 2nd quarter, when a pair of turnovers spelled instant disaster. First, LaMichael James' fumble, which killed a drive that appeared primed to end in points when he coughed it up struggling for yards in a scene similar to Michael Crabtree's fumble in Atlanta. That ended in a Baltimore touchdown. Then, Colin Kaepernick, who had been scintillating throughout the playoffs, made a rare mistake, tried to do a little too much and overshot Randy Moss and hit Ed Reed instead. That was when I started getting really worried. Kaepernick had just thrown the first Interception ever thrown by a 49ers Quarterback in the Super Bowl and it couldn't have come at a worse time. Baltimore's possession that time ended with a fake Field Goal that probably would have ended with a Touchdown had Patrick Willis not snuffed it out. But Baltimore got their touchdown the next time out courtesy of Jacoby Jones, who basically did an excellent job of making Chris Culliver look like even more of a chump than Culliver had made himself look on the way to a 56-yard score and a 21-6 Ravens lead at the half. Jacoby Jones followed with a haymaker after halftime, running back the opening kickoff 108 yards for another score that, as far as I was concerned, may as well have put the lights out on the game. They had committed far too many mistakes and minor as they may have been, they had begun to add up to disaster.

Down 28-6, the 49ers probably couldn't have been blamed for lying down. But true to the form that got them to this point, they did not. Following the bewildering power outage that did little more than give me time to stew over this mess, the 49ers regrouped, got their asses in gear, and began to fight back. And they fought back fast. Within mere minutes, 28-6 had become 28-23 and all of a sudden everyone was back into this thing. And it was all generated by Colin Kaepernick.

It wasn't so much that Kaepernick played particularly badly in the first half. He may have had moments where he didn't relax, which had been his undoing in certain instances, but I can't recall more than 2 or 3 bad throws out of him all day. He wasn't helped by a number of drops from his receivers. But there's just something about Kaepernick. When he gets the offense going, it appears to energize the entire team. You can see it happening. He hit Crabtree for the 49ers first touchdown and immediately, the 49ers Defense came to life and stopped the Ravens cold, even forcing a fumble from Ray Rice. The touch was back on his passes and the 49ers began ripping through the Baltimore Defense. You can say whatever you want about Kaepernick now, and I suppose people already have. Bill Cowher even went on CBS during the power outage and called for Alex Smith. That wasn't ever going to happen. If there was any Quarterback who could have led the 49ers back into the game, it sure as hell wasn't Alex Smith. Kaepernick had gotten them this far and he damn near brought them all the way back once again. As far as I'm concerned, Colin Kaepernick's performance bordered on Heroic. This team respects and loves him so much that when he kicks it into gear, it feels like the entire team kicks in with him. And that's exactly what happened in the 3rd Quarter Sunday night.

The game from there was the back and forth I'd expected. The 49ers got a Touchdown from Gore and a Field Goal from Akers (who shut everyone up by hitting all 3 Field Goals he attempted) before the Ravens finally responded. But by that point, the 49ers had begun to generate enough on defense to slow down, if not stop completely, the Ravens attack. Now, they were the ones getting the Field Goals. The 4th Quarter began with one for Baltimore, but the 49ers responded by zipping right down the field for another Touchdown, this one from Kaepernick himself on a 15-yard scramble that put the 49ers within a 2-point conversion of tying the game at 31. But the Ravens came on an all-out blitz on the conversion, forcing Kaepernick to throw the ball away.

Baltimore kicked another Field Goal on their final drive, aided by a Pass Interference penalty on Chris Culliver and an offsides call. Little things that hurt. So with the score 34-29, and about 4 minutes to go, the 49ers had one final chance to get the ball into the End Zone, erase the deficit, erase the Ravens and bring home a Title. Colin Kaepernick had done it all to this point, and now here was his Joe Montana moment. As he had all second half, Kaepernick threaded passes with precision. Frank Gore, suddenly energized in the second half, came up with a pair of key runs. The Ravens defense was gassed. It was all coming together, just as I saw Joe Montana do it so many years before. Colin Kaepernick was going to pull off the greatest comeback in Super Bowl History and put his name alongside the NFL's elite...

...They came up five yards short.

There were many questions after the game, and it may be some time before they get answered. The 49ers committed a myriad of mistakes that offset the fact that they out-gained the Ravens by over 100 yards of offense, and offset the fact that Colin Kaepernick threw for over 300 yards, Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree caught over 100 yards worth of passes and Frank Gore ran for over 100 yards. When that kind of production happens and you lose, you probably screwed up badly in other places.

The 49ers defense was abysmal through the first half, and when they really needed a stop in the 4th Quarter, they couldn't get it. The problem isn't the players, it's the depth. The 49ers have made it through the season rarely substituting on defense. The guys were just gassed. And without experienced backups, that becomes a liability.

The play calling, both early and late, was terrible. The final series for the 49ers will probably be scrutinized for weeks to try to figure out what they could have done differently to make up those 5 yards that they couldn't get. The final 3 plays were all passing plays. That probably shouldn't have happened. Where was Frank Gore? Gore had run up 110 yards for the game, most of them in the 4th Quarter. The 49ers had particular success running Gore on misdirection plays away from the action, and besides the point, Gore's strength is his ability to weave his way through tacklers. Where was a designed roll out for Kaepernick? Where was Vernon Davis (Bill Barnwell on Grantland noted that this would have been a perfect spot for the same Vernon Post play that won them the Saints game last year), who had been similarly unstoppable? Three consecutive pass plays directed at the same receiver, Michael Crabtree, though perhaps high-percentage, didn't play to Kaepernick's particular strength and also really wasn't the kind of play calling that got the 49ers to that point.

Whether or not Crabtree was the victim of a helmet-to-helmet hit on 3rd down, or held on 4th down is immaterial. Bad officiating and non-calls are a regular occurrence in the NFL. The 49ers were also done in by some penalties that they richly deserved. The referees did a bad job, but the play on 4th down—Crabtree was held by Jimmy Smith—is almost always never called. It wasn't called on NaVorro Bowman in the Championship game, either. My feeling is that the 49ers are less sore losers than simply frustrated from how close they came to winning this game. Or maybe that's just what I'd like to believe. Either way, them's the breaks. I can't get too bent out of shape about it because it shouldn't have come down to that. There's plenty of other things to be bent out of shape about.

For the second season in a row, the 49ers have made a deep playoff run that ended with an excruciating loss. That it's come after so many years of losing is a testament to what Jim Harbaugh has brought to the team—yes, often at the expense of classiness, but the NFL is about winning games, not pleasing the press—and they have the pieces in place for continued success. The 2012 season brought Colin Kaepernick to the forefront as the future of the 49ers at Quarterback. Though he was up and down in his first half-season as a starter, he showed his stuff on the biggest of stages and although last night wasn't his time to shine brightest, he proved he belongs. He's got limitless potential and clearly, he's the future of the 49ers. The remaining core pieces of the team, Gore, Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Aldon Smith, Anthony Davis, Joe Staley, Mike Iupati, Delanie Walker, DaShon Goldson and Andy Lee will all be back. Many of them are still young and entering the prime of their careers.

But youth and talent doesn't guarantee continued success. That's the nature of the NFL. That's why I said every Championship season is special and precious and the opportunity to be in the Super Bowl shouldn't ever be taken for granted. The 49ers were perilously close to not even winning the NFC West this season, or being stuck without a 1st round bye. Who's to say that the Seahawks, who were up the Niners' asses all season, don't continue to ascend and prove an even tougher opponent than last year? The St. Louis Rams also improved by leaps and bounds. Outside the division, there's plenty of other teams that can cause plenty of headaches. That doesn't even account for injuries and other teams adjusting to the 49ers style of play. Sometimes, making the Super Bowl is the worst thing that can happen to a team, win or lose. It leads to the assumption that you're probably good enough. The hope is that the 49ers realize that they're only good enough to compete for a Championship. There's still pieces that can be added, particularly for depth, something that's often overlooked.

No, there's nothing to be ashamed about. They just fell behind too far too early and ran out of time. Their defense couldn't account for the buzzsaw that Joe Flacco had become and their play calling lacked variety at a key moment. They were behind 22 points and damn near made it up. The point is, it's a bitch and a half to have come all this way for two years in a row, battle hard through two seasons, overcome a really bitter playoff defeat, stay mostly healthy and make it all the way back, get to the Super Bowl and lose. Last year, the 49ers used their defeat in the Championship Game to rally them all the way back and into the Super Bowl. But 5 yards away from bringing home the ultimate prize, they fell short. And for the second year in a row, I'll have to spend the offseason thinking about what might have been.

Bring It Home

It shouldn't be that difficult to figure out who I'm picking to win Super Bowl XLVII on Sunday, but the reason for my selection goes deeper than my allegiance. The 49ers and the Ravens appear pretty evenly matched, much moreso than most Super Bowls tend to be.

Usually, when the 49ers have been in the Super Bowl, I've felt fairly confident that the 49ers are going to win the game. Super Bowl XXIX was a pretty good example of this. The 49ers were far and away better than the San Diego Chargers, and the 18 1/2 point spread was indicative of that. Basically, come game day, I felt that there was no earthy way the 49ers wouldn't win, and I was right. The Chargers never posed a serious threat and the 49ers cruised to a 49-26.

This season, I believe the 49ers are a better team than the Ravens, but they're not so much better that the game is a mismatch. Just about everything I've read and seen and heard over the two weeks of hype leading up to the game has proven that although the 49ers are favored by 3 1/2 points, it's really anyone's game.

The Ravens come into this Super Bowl riding an emotional high that's been centered around their retiring superstar Ray Lewis. They've overcome some pretty heavy obstacles to get here. I didn't pick them in any of their 3 playoff games, and they shut me up by winning all 3. Prior to the Wildcard Round, I ridiculed their Quarterback, Joe Flacco, as a wimp, and he's shut me up by playing some of the best Football of his life. They beat the Colts at home pretty convincingly. On the road in Denver, in an impossible situation, they won again thanks to a miracle Touchdown pass from Flacco to Jacoby Jones and their defense's ability to force Peyton Manning into making a key mistake in Overtime. They capped off their journey with another impressive road victory in New England, where they just laid down the hammer on Tom Brady in the second half of the game and coasted home from there. Flacco has proven himself capable of any challenge and unflappable in a difficult situation, and his play is really the reason they've made it to the Super Bowl. He's going to be a major challenge for the 49ers. Ray Rice has played well, but it's been the play of their receivers, specifically Jones and Torrey Smith, and Anquan Boldin, who has really raised his game to another level after a subpar regular season.

They'll be facing a 49ers defense that really got lit up by Matt Ryan and the Falcons in the Championship game, and took a half to really get going against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Their pass rush holds the key to this game. Ever since Justin Smith injured his triceps against New England, it hasn't been the same. Aldon Smith, who set a club record with 19 1/2 sacks this season, hasn't had one since Smith got injured. Though Justin Smith is back, he's clearly not 100%, and it's allowed opposing Quarterbacks to put up some gaudy numbers against them. However, in spite of this, the 49ers have been able to get stops when they absolutely had to. Though they were in a real dogfight in the Green Bay game, they eventually wore down the Packers' offensive line in the 3rd quarter, slowing down Rodgers enough for the offense to put the game out of reach. In Atlanta, they barely laid a hand on Ryan, but come the second half, they forced him into a pair of turnovers, and once they got the lead, they came up with a huge 4th down stop in the closing minutes to seal the victory. Even with their pass rush suffering, guys like NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Carlos Rogers, Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner and Tarell Brown raised their game enough to compensate. Patrick Willis, of course, has always been on another level. One huge thing the 49ers have been able to do all season has been that even when they allow a receiver to make a catch, they've usually tackled him right there and prevented a bigger gain.

Though the 49ers have built their reputation on defense these past two years, it's been the offense that has stolen the show in the Playoffs. It's all revolved around Colin Kaepernick, who has proven himself a serious threat no matter what he does with the ball. The Packers tried to muscle up against their running backs, so Kaepernick simply ran around them. The Falcons tried to cut off the edges of the field to prevent him from running, so instead he handed off to Frank Gore and LaMichael James and let them do the damage. And neither of those teams did a very good job of stopping him from throwing the ball, whether it was to Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss or Vernon Davis.

The Ravens defense did a good job against all of their playoff opponents, particularly New England. But all of their opponents had problems running the ball against them, which allowed them to key in on stopping the Quarterback. They haven't faced someone quite as multifaceted as Kaepernick, and the 49ers tandem of Frank Gore and LaMichael James (who has emerged as a star-in-waiting this postseason). The Colts didn't have it with Donald Brown and what's-his-face, the Broncos backs were unimpressive, and they just knocked Stevan Ridley out cold in the Championship. Gore and James will prove a bit more formidable a test. The other problem they have is that, unlike the 49ers, who boast a lot of youth and speed on defense, the Ravens defense is comprised mostly of veterans who are entering the latter stages of their careers. Ray Lewis doesn't have the sideline-to-sideline speed he once had, and if he matches up one-on-one with Vernon Davis, that's going to be a problem. Their pass rush has been spotty, too. The key for the Ravens on defense, much like for the 49ers, will be if they can generate a pass rush against a 49ers Offensive Line that's been great all season. The other key will be if their Linebackers and Secondary can prevent the 49ers from turning the short pass into the big gain. Though the 49ers were able to open up a much more vertical passing game with Kaepernick at the helm than they were with Alex Smith, they still rely on the quick passes and short routes an awful lot.

Special Teams is something else that could rear its ugly head on both sides. The Ravens kick coverage team has had its share of problems. They allowed a pair of kick returns for Touchdowns against Denver. Though Ted Ginn, Jr, hasn't been as explosive as he has been in years past, he's still a threat, and LaMichael James has also performed well returning kickoffs. Jacoby Jones on the Ravens side has been very solid. But the biggest wildcard of the game is David Akers for the 49ers. An elite Kicker for years, Akers has struggled with injuries and inconsistency all season, to the point where he's now a major liability. He missed an eminently makeable Field Goal in Atlanta. His confidence appears completely shot and the 49ers already attempted to bring in another Kicker to compete for the job, but that didn't work. Many have questioned why Akers wasn't cut outright, but the real reason is that most out-of-work Kickers are out of work for a reason: They're not very good. If the game comes down to a Field Goal, that's a sticky situation. If Akers misses a Field Goal early, it calls the way the 49ers play out the rest of the game into question. I have the feeling that the 49ers may go for it on 4th down more than once in this game. The hope is that it won't come down to that. One thing that the 49ers have done well, particularly with Kaepernick at Quarterback, is finishing off their drives with Touchdowns rather than settling for Field Goals.

One intangible thing I've noticed amid the hype-fest is the focus of the two teams. Ever since the 49ers won the Championship, the focus has been on prepping and planning to win the Super Bowl. That seems to be the singular focus across the team, outside of an ill-advised comment from Chris Culliver, and an outrageous statement from Randy Moss that may have been done to draw attention away from his teammates so they can focus and prepare, and onto himself, since he's used to all sorts of media attention anyway. On the other hand, the Ravens appeared to be more interested in junking the Patriots and complaining, be it Flacco talking about next year's Super Bowl in New Jersey, or Bernard Pollard whining about fines, rather than discussing the game, and what's besides the point is that Ray Lewis is the only player anyone seems interested in saying anything about, whether it's good or bad. As a team, their focus has come off really weird. This may be another one of my ridiculous observations, and may mean nothing, but it's something worth noticing.

Putting it all together, I think this is the 49ers game. They have the players that can control the tempo of the game, and the kind of rhythm on both sides of the ball that, when they're working well, can slowly but surely wear down their opponent. This is how they've won in the Playoffs, by wearing down their opponent. Even when they've started slow, they haven't panicked, they stuck to their game plan and remained patient enough for the games to work back into their favor. Two major things that can't be coached, youth and speed, are on their side. Two weeks ago, I said that they played this entire season to get to the Championship game and win, so that they could go forward and win the Super Bowl. The chance is right there for them, and I believe they will go out on Sunday and grab it.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Ravens 23

Not To Be Denied

Several years ago, I talked about how Conference Championship Sunday in the NFL is a rather breathless day, and that was how I felt when the 49ers weren't involved. There's a bit of finality to the day. It's the NFL's last pure weekend, and even then it's not really a true weekend since they moved the game times to 3pm and 6pm from 1 and 4. That doesn't remove the importance from any of the games, mind you. But, suffice it to say, with the 49ers involved last season, I basically had to just pass time during the AFC Championship until the 49ers took on the Giants, something I did through clenched teeth. This year, the 49ers are back in the NFC Championship. Even though it's the early game, I'm quite certain I will have whipped myself into quite the frenzy by time 3pm rolls around. I'll probably be burned out by time the AFC Championship game starts at 6:30. It just doesn't even rate with me. Predictions, half-informed, nonetheless. 2-2 last weekend brought me to 5-3 overall.

 Sunday, 3:00pm
San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (14-3)

So, for the second consecutive year, the 49ers find themselves in the NFC Championship game. This is the 14th time the 49ers will have played in the NFC Championship (their 9th since I've been watching). For all the success the 49ers have had as a franchise, they're actually 5-8 in NFC Championship games. Last year, they hosted the game and fell painstakingly short in a the kind of game that I think about a year later and still get rankled. This mission this season, though it's never been widely discussed, was clearly with the mission to make it back to this game and win it this time. But, they'll have to go on the road to Atlanta in order to do it.

The 49ers and Falcons don't meet all that often anymore, unless the schedule falls that way. This wasn't the case for many years, when the Falcons bizarrely resided in the NFC West and these two teams met twice a year. Though the 49ers lead the all-time series 44-30-1, they haven't beaten Atlanta since the divisions realigned and the only time they met in the Playoffs, the Falcons won 20-18. Needless to say, I've never cared for the Falcons much, which is just as well since I have no particular affection for Atlanta's baseball team, or the city in general, either.

That the Falcons are here is a bit of a miracle. In spite of the fact that they got off to a hot start and went 13-3, nobody really gave them any kind of credit for their strong season. Faced with a matchup against the red-hot Seahawks, most predicted that the tandem of Matt Ryan and Soupy Sales would fall for the 4th consecutive time in the Playoffs. They almost did in excruciating fashion, running out to a 27-7 lead, then blowing it all in the 4th Quarter before Ryan rallied the Falcons back and put them in position for the winning Field Goal. Basically, Atlanta won in spite of doing a lot of things wrong and my feeling about them, outside of being glad that they kicked the Seahawks in the nuts, was that they don't really play complete games.

This was in stark contrast to the whipping the 49ers laid on the Packers. Yes, I'm biased, but let's face it. Everyone was on the Packers' jock going into the game, and the 49ers wore them out. The Packers kept the game close for the first half, but come the second half, Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense just overwhelmed them with a barrage of different formations, different looks and plays they just weren't equipped to defend. The Packers had no answer and what was a 24-24 shootout turned into a 45-24 pasting. The 49ers contained Aaron Rodgers and the potent Packers offense by pounding out 323 yards on the ground, controlling the clock and keeping Rodgers off the field. The 579 yards they generated represented a 49ers Postseason record.

All things considered, I still have some concerns about this game. Colin Kaepernick had the ultimate "I'll Show You" game last weekend, shaking off an early interception before catching fire. His performance has launched him into the national spotlight, and even on the (regional) cover of Sports Illustrated. The concern is that he won't sneak up on the Falcons quite the same way he did on the Packers. Then again, the 49ers mix up their offense enough that, in general it may not be too much of a concern. In spite of the fact that the Packers defense got more hype (based more on Clay Matthews, III's hair than actual talent), Atlanta probably has a better unit, but it depends mostly on the effectiveness of John Abraham, the former Jet standout who has a history of no-showing big games.

Also, the game is in Atlanta. I said this already, but it's worth taking note. The 49ers history in NFC Championship games is checkered, and their history in Playoff road games is also pretty checkered (although because of the years of success they've had, they also haven't had to play that many road games). In fact, the 49ers haven't won a Playoff road game since 1988, when they beat the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship to go to Super Bowl XXIII. Since then, they've gone 0-5. But, at the same time, the 49ers have lost their fair share of Championship games on their own home field, so this could all be another one of my illogical concerns.

Although Atlanta has been very good all season, and they showed their intestinal fortitude by getting up off the mat and rallying to beat Seattle last weekend, they're going to have their hands full with the 49ers. They'll give the 49ers problems of their own, in the same respect that Green Bay gave them some problems, but the 49ers create the same kind of matchup issues that they did against Green Bay. The Falcons boast a better running game than Green Bay, and they have a pair of lights-out WRs in Julio Jones and Roddy White, but Matt Ryan isn't Aaron Rodgers. On the other side of the ball, I don't really know a great deal about Atlanta's defense (again, they don't have beautiful people like Clay Matthews, III, so nobody pays attention to them), other than they didn't really do anything especially impressive against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Wilson shot himself in the foot a few times, but when push came to shove, Wilson was able to run and throw as he pleased. I expect Kaepernick will have the same success.

Ultimately, I believe the 49ers will win. I firmly believe that they're the better team on both sides of the ball, but that's not why I think they're going to win. Championship games often come down to desire. I said it before and I'll say it again. The 49ers got this far last season and lost. They have the crucible of knowing what it's like to go this far only to come up short. Patrick Willis set the tone for this season after their opening game, saying "People don't understand. We're on a mission." This season hasn't been perfect for the 49ers, but when it's mattered the most, they've come up with the victories they had to get to bring them right back to this game. Jim Harbaugh made the calculated gamble to switch from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick with an eye towards getting back to this game and beyond. Given another opportunity, the 49ers will not be denied.
Prediction: 49ers 34, Falcons 24

Sunday, 6:30pm
Baltimore Ravens (12-6) at New England Patriots (13-4)

 After a miracle comeback in the last minute of regulation that led to a heart-stopping victory in the 6th Double Overtime game in NFL History, the Baltimore Ravens have all the look of a team of destiny, rallying behind their retiring hero, Ray Lewis. On the other side, the Patriots are basically doing what they always do, just sort of rolling on like the machine they usually are. Admittedly, I really haven't bothered to form much of an opinion on this game. I've devoted the entirety of my thought process to the 49ers and the NFC Championship, to the point where I'm not really sure I care who wins, and I really don't know if I have an accurate idea of who will win. I know it's going to be close, and it may come down to a similar instance as last year, although I don't think it's going to be quite as spectacular as Billy Cundiff's shanked Field Goal.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Ravens 20

I guess you could call this a half-well-informed set of predictions. I say I don't care about who wins in the AFC not to be funny or to blow it off, I legitimately don't care who wins the AFC game. My head is wrapped solely around the 49ers right now. 

The Big Boys

I'm actually making my picks at what is for me a somewhat early date this week. That it's been a bit of an intense week for me might be an understatement. I'd run through a brick wall if it meant time could just jump to 8pm Saturday night and I could sit and watch the 49ers and Packers slug it out in their game. But there's still two days yet before I can really get myself too worked up about it. Mostly, I've passed the time reading blogs on the game and following the 49ers "Quest for Six" campaign. There's also three other games that I have to predict, and many of them involve teams that I don't care for very much. In fact, the other NFC game, the Seattle Seahawks/Atlanta Falcons matchup, involves a current 49ers Division Rival and a former division rival, so no matter who wins that game, I probably will have plenty to snarl about. Both of the NFL's Darlings won last weekend, and most of the experts, I'd assume, will pick them to win again this weekend. Nonetheless, games still have to be played, so everyone should be careful not to prematurely anoint someone a champion just yet. Funny things happen in the NFL, particularly when the Divisional Round is concerned.

I was 3-1 on my predictions last weekend, only losing when the Ravens beat the Colts. In retrospect, I feel somewhat foolish having made this pick. I probably should have known better than to go with the mostly rebuilt and inexperienced Colts on the road like that, but sometimes you make the risky pick. That ends the suspense of the quest for a 11-0 postseason, but maybe 10-1 is a possibility.

Saturday, 4:30pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
The prevailing thought is that neither AFC Playoff game this week is much of a contest, and that may well be true. Many seem to think that the Broncos will rampage over the Ravens, and the fact is that they probably will win. They're a much better put-together team, and Peyton Manning eats Joe Flacco for lunch on his lesser days. The Ravens won last week primarily due to riding the Ray Lewis Mojo and also due to their ability to pressure Andrew Luck into making poor throws and mistakes. They won't be able to do this against Peyton Manning, who's been playing about as well as he ever has. So, their best hope would be to try to control the game with Ray Rice, who's the best Running Back on the field in this game. I don't,  however, think this will go so well, since Peyton Manning thrives on a quick-strike, no-huddle attack that zips down the field. Should the game dissolve into a shootout, that would be instant disaster for the Ravens. So, yes. The Ravens first, last and only hope is to control the ball. Not that that wasn't blatantly obvious. Ray Rice fumbled twice last week. That doesn't bode well.
Prediction: Broncos 30, Ravens 20

Saturday, 8:00pm
Green Bay Packers (12-5) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
The buildup for this game feels to me an awful lot like last year's Divisional Playoff game, when the Saints came into San Francisco all high and mighty, and everyone thought Drew Brees was going to come in and light the 49ers on fire, and the 49ers would be overwhelmed by the moment and the Saints were going to cruise on. What ended up happening was that the 49ers smacked the Saints in the mouth and held them off at the end. It feels like a similar story with a different cast of characters. Both these teams are battle-tested. The Packers come in riding the wave of a big-time hot streak behind Aaron Rodgers. The 49ers didn't surprise anyone this year like they did in 2011, and the result was that they've been a bit more inconsistent this year. That said, they did open their season with a rather impressive 30-22 victory over the Packers, exploiting weaknesses in the Packers' run defense and offensive line. But that was week 1, and a lot has happened since then.

The big story this season was, for the 49ers, the switch at Quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick. The ultimate risk, Jim Harbaugh sacrificed the steady efficiency of Smith for the big play ability—and unpredictability—of Kaepernick. The results to this point have been mixed, Kaepernick has been rather boom or bust and the offense as a whole seems to still be in a period of adjustment to the frenetic energy he seems to bring.

On Defense, the 49ers proved in Week 1 that they could contain Rodgers, mostly. But the key for all of this remains whether or not Justin Smith is able to play, and if he can (it appears he will), how effective he's going to be. Justin Smith's ability to disrupt opponent's offensive linemen limits the opposing run game, and also opens up lanes for Aldon Smith to get sacks. Without Justin Smith, the 49ers defense has been vulnerable against the run. This may not be a great concern, seeing as how the Packers have a terrible running game, but regardless, Aaron Rodgers is the best player on the field and can raise hell at any given moment. A healthy Justin Smith limits the Packers' meager ability to run and also will create more pressure on Rodgers, who was sacked a league-high 55 times this season.

Last week, at the start of the Packers/Vikings game, I mused that Minnesota being forced to use Joe Webb at Quarterback didn't bode well for the 49ers. Webb, a speedy, mobile QB who specializes in running around a lot to create plays, plays a similar style of QB to Colin Kaepernick. But Webb was forced into the lineup cold, after not having played much all season, and it showed. Webb proved himself mostly incapable of being able to throw a pass, and the Packers exploited this. Kaepernick may have a similar style to Webb, but he has far better tools. He won't spend his night holding the ball too long and throwing desperate, dying quails to nobody in particular. If anything, both he and Frank Gore should be able to pound the ball on the ground fairly well against the Packer defense.

This game seems to be confounding most Football observers, because although the 49ers pose a lot of matchup problems for the Packers, the Packers ultimately have the best player on either team in Rodgers, and the 49ers have a Quarterback making his first Postseason Start with a lot of question marks around him. In a Quarterback-driven league, this means a lot. But does it? Ultimately, I think most people may have already anointed the Packers as the team of Destiny and, perhaps, are too afraid to pick against them. But I haven't anointed anyone yet. I'll wait until February 3rd to do that.
Prediction: 49ers 20, Packers 14

Sunday, 1:00pm
Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
How do you follow up a preview like that one? This game seems to be a bit more cut and dry than the SF/GB game. The Seahawks have been on a rampage, and the Falcons appear to be this season's paper tiger, having coasted through the NFL's easiest schedule to a 13-3 record and a #1 seed. These are a pair of eminently unlikeable teams. I've already said plenty about Seattle this year. But just to recap, after watching their game against Washington, people are now starting to notice that Seattle pushes the envelope of being a dirty team. Their defensive backs have been laying out opposing receivers for weeks, and to add insult to injury, after beating Washington, one of their DBs decided to try to fight one of the Washington players. All a reflection of their D-bag coach. Additionally, Russell Wilson has been drawing praise for running down the field to throw blocks for his Running Backs, but what nobody wants to admit is that Wilson isn't actually throwing any blocks. He's just running down the field and sort of getting in the way of defenders. He appears to purposely be avoiding hits. But, no matter, so long as they win games, he's a Hero. Somewhere, this will be exposed.

But, once again, they're probably the better team in this game, because Atlanta has been boring and overhyped for years. Matt Ryan has appeared to make a career for himself by storming around the sidelines screaming "YEAH!!!" with ferocious intensity while not really doing anything particularly great, and their coach, Mike Smith just looks like a rubber-faced doofus. Not surprisingly, they've managed to lose every playoff game they've appeared in. The pressure is really on them this year, and unfortunately, the Seahawks are probably the last team they want to see.
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Falcons 24

Sunday, 4:30pm
Houston Texans (13-4) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Kind of an overlooked game, because it was only a few weeks ago that Houston came into New England on a Monday Night and got housed by the Patriots. Though I don't suspect this will be another blowout, I (and probably everyone else) thinks the result will ultimately be the same. I flip-flopped on this game a bit, because New England does have a fairly recent history of shitting the bed in the Divisional Round against a chippy opponent (see: 2010 New York Jets), but they've also been known to lay down the hammer here as well. The Texans defense might make things a little hairy for Tom Brady, but then again, pressure doesn't seem to faze him. On offense, the only hope they have is pretty similar to the only hope the Ravens have: Hope Arian Foster can just run and run and run and eat up all the clock, because Matt Schaub isn't likely to best Brady in a shootout.
Prediction: Patriots 26, Texans 18
(Yes, I kind of mailed this one in. After writing those other previews, I'm burnt out.)

So, that's my take on what is generally considered the best weekend of the NFL's season. If things go well, you can expect that I'll be in a ferocious mood talking about the Seahawks. If they don't go well, I'll be in an even worse mood. That's all I can tell you. Following your team in the NFL playoffs isn't much different than following your team in the MLB playoffs, except that the games happen less often, so you're stuck waiting around getting worked up. Bring it on. Fuck the Packers. 

Media Darlings

As usual, I've waited until the Morning of the first Wildcard games to make my picks. Usually it's been out of general laziness. This year, it's only partially out of general laziness. I've also had a bit of a crisis of conscience about picking these games, because I've got a horse in this race, even if the 49ers aren't playing this weekend. Also, the two NFC Teams that seem to be drawing the most favor this weekend are also the two Flavors Of The Week, one of whom I'm going to have to deal with watching come 8pm next Saturday. I'll mention them when I get to picking the games, but just for clarity's sake, these are the teams that everyone's fawning over, showering their Quarterback with all sorts of praise, and basically handing them a clear path through to Championship Weekend. These teams get enough ink and enough jock-rubbing that if you root for another involved team, it's really begun to get irritating, and you want one of their opponents—preferably your team—to knock them in the mouth and put them in their place. But I digress. They've got their own problems this week, and I'm just going to sit back and watch it unfold  before I worry about which team the 49ers will face.

Saturday, 4:30pm
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) at Houston Texans (12-4)
If this seems familiar, that's because it is. These two teams met in the same game at the same time last season, with the Texans, behind 3rd String Quarterback T.J. (Don't call me Tyler!) Yates. The Bengals made some mistakes and the Texans pulled away in the second half for a relatively easy victory. A lot of what I've been hearing this week involves the Texans (as an aside, I find the Houston Texans, currently the NFL's youngest franchise, to be rather cumbersome. Even typing this out, I find I instinctively will type Houston Titans, which never existed, although the team that is now the Titans used to be the Houston Oilers, the perennially lame-duck franchise that was rumored to move for years until they actually did. Houston got another team 6 years later, which baffled me, and they had to suffer through the stigma of having David Carr as their franchise Quarterback for too many years, but now they've gotten it together) slumping late in the regular season and the Bengals hungry for a playoff victory, not having won a Playoff game since 1990, when their Quarterback was the cranky Boomer Esiason. Some signs may point to Cincinnati having an edge here, but I can't say I see it. Houston got off to a really fast start before regressing later in the season, but by that point, their playoff spot, and a home game, were all well-assured. Cincinnati has been one of those annoyingly inconsistent teams all season; the fact that they're the #6 seed tells you that they basically just happened into a Playoff berth (this usually is the case with 1 or 2 teams each season, and it's almost always the #6 seed). Basically, they ended up being the best of a bunch of marginal teams (you can lump them in with non-playoff teams like Pittsburgh, San Diego, the Jets, etc that just flat out stunk), and were helped out by the fact that the AFC was full of bottom feeders this season. Teams like that tend not to last very long in the Playoffs, and usually they're long forgotten by the time Championship Weekend rolls around.
Prediction: Houston 27, Cincinnati 17

Saturday, 8:00pm
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Have you heard about the Packers? Lemme tell you, they got a great Quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, he throws the ball all over the field and does a really cool dance whenever the Packers score a Touchdown. And on Defense, they have this awesome Linebacker named Clay Matthews (III) who has wild blonde hair and flexes his muscles on the field. These guys are the COOLEST!!! They're going to the SUPER BOWL!!! Packers, Packers, Packers! Lambeau Leap! Frozen Tundra! Vince Laahm-Baaah-Di!

Pardon me, I have to go vomit now.

Perhaps I could be accused of being somewhat bitter, and I can't say the Packers haven't earned some praise since they did win a Super Bowl two years ago, but the problem is that when you win a Super Bowl, and you're one of the NFL's staple franchises (see: Packers, Giants), what happens is you become pervasively annoying, so much so that many people, particularly that team's own fans, aren't even aware of it. The Packers won Super Bowl XLV, Aaron Rodgers started doing TV commercials, Clay Matthews, III (and it's time we made note of the fact that he's Clay Matthews, III., in deference to his father, an outstanding LB in his own right, and his grandfather, who also played in the NFL—if Robert Griffin, III can do it, so can he) was all over the place, even some of their lesser known players like Greg Jennings are on Commercials. Just be thankful Brett Favre isn't still around. And there's the whole Lambeau Field mystique and the cheeseheads...It's getting a little tired. I suppose knocking the Packers makes me somehow anti-American or something, but I don't care. I don't like them. The problem is, they're going to be playing this game at home, it's probably going to be about 20 degrees out in Wisconsin, they're pissed off because they think they should have had the #2 seed and a bye, and everyone is feeding into this.

They're playing a Vikings team that beat them last week, and while Adrian Peterson, who is simply a delight to watch, gashed them last week and may well gash them again, but their Quarterback, Christian Ponder, is, at best, middling, particularly when outdoors. There are ways that Minnesota could keep this game close, but it involves a lot of ball control and luck, and hope that Aaron Rodgers can be pressured into mistakes. It's possible, because of the Packers' general lack of a running attack, but I don't think the Vikings will be the team to do it tonight.
Prediction: Green Bay 33, Minnesota 20

Sunday, 1:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Two teams that have sort of done it on smoke and mirrors. This is the one game I've had the hardest time figuring out. The Colts have sort of made it this far on Luck, both the literal luck and their Rookie Quarterback Andrew Luck, winning a number of close games in spite of an aging defense and a poor running game, combined with the Mojo of ChuckStrong, and how they've rallied around their Leukemia-stricken Head Coach Chuck Pagano. The result is one of the real feel-good stories in the NFL this season. On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens are more or less the Over-The-Hill gang on defense, as evidenced by their great linebacker Ray Lewis announcing this will be the last time he'll do his annoying dance (A word on Ray Lewis: Great player, yes. Hall of Fame Linebacker, yes. But let's not forget that he was almost sent to jail in 2000, and let's not even put him in the same ballpark as Lawrence Taylor as far as "Best Linebacker Ever" is concerned). They've had a season similar to Houston, where they started off hot and then came back to earth. They also have an erratic Quarterback in Waka Flacco, who's the kind of Quarterback who you may not often win because of, but you'll sure as hell lose because of (and as an aside on Flacco, I've gone on record as calling him the Ted Lilly of the NFL: He's got a modicum of talent, but he's incredibly wimpy-looking. He can blow up at any second, and he constantly looks like he's about to burst into tears and cry for his mother). They've also benefited from a good deal of luck. So, someone's luck is about to run out. I think it's Baltimore's turn.
Prediction: Indianapolis 23, Baltimore 20 (OT)

Sunday, 4:30pm
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Washington Redskins (10-6)
Bill Simmons wrote in his column yesterday that if the Seahawks could have stopped Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals in week 1, they would have been 12-4, won the NFC West and had the #2 seed and a bye this week. Well, they didn't, so they're on the road, away from their loud stadium and obnoxious fans. Lightly regarded at the beginning of the season, Seattle has sort of rode this groundswell of a hotshot Rookie Quarterback and a thundering running back, and a chippy Head Coach who skips around the sidelines and runs up the score, and an opportunistic defense that may or may not be full of cheaters. They hung around and hung around and won a few really close games, and then they started to believe it, and they started to rip up several opponents, including the 49ers. But I'm still not convinced. They've taken advantage of some pretty weak teams, and a 49ers team that was injured and unprepared. And on the road. Should they have to face the 49ers again, it'll be in San Francisco. Unlike the Packers, they're being anointed without actually having won anything, so I'm really hoping that someone steps up and puts them and their stupid coach in their place.

Unfortunately, I don't think the Redskins can do that. Though Washington has had a great season of their own, has won 7 games in a row, and boasts a team somewhat similar to the Seahawks (minus the annoying coach and cheating defenders), their defense isn't quite as good as Seattle's. They won't come out and start blasting people out of the box. But what I am interested in is to see just how Robert Griffin, III and Alfred Morris handle what's probably the toughest defense they've seen all year. To the Redskins' credit, they've eked out a number of close victories, but not against any teams that had a really good defense. What I do know is that this won't be a romp for Seattle. They've really walked over some lesser teams (the fact that Pete Carroll insistently continues to pass and fake punts when the game is out of reach may have something to do with it), and while they'll probably beat Washington, this will probably be more shootout than cakewalk.
Prediction: Seahawks 37, Redskins 31

So, there you have it. If this makes some sense, more power to me. Whatever happens, the 49ers will, I'm sure, be ready for whoever shows up in San Francisco next Saturday.