In a Future Age

I'll put it rather bluntly: I am going to miss having R.A. Dickey on the Mets. I'm sure just about every Mets fan will. Dickey was the kind of player that you couldn't possibly dislike, and the reasons for that went far beyond the success he found in his 3 seasons with the Mets. He turned from a journeyman to a star, a quirky, quotable personality with a story of survival like no other. Mets fans rallied behind them and, in 2012, they were treated to the kind of special season only comes along so often. But, Baseball being the fickle business it is, just as Dickey's amazing story was reaching its culmination, he was dealt away before the Mets and their fans ever really had a chance to celebrate his Cy Young Award with him. I'm sure I'm not the only Mets fan who aches sorrowfully about this, and Dickey himself tweeted as much earlier this afternoon. I'm thankful that we had this time together. 

All that being said, we have to be careful, as fans, not to become overly sentimental about the Dickey trade. Or any trade, for that matter. It's the way Baseball works. Things may not seem so great now, but I'm of the belief that sometime in the near future, this trade will end up making a lot of sense for the Mets. The reality of the situation is that Dickey wasn't going to get any better than he was last season. Yes, he's a knuckleballer, and knuckleballers can go on forever, etc, etc. But wisely, Sandy Alderson dealt Dickey when he was at the peak of his value, and the haul of prospects he brought back is clearly evidence of this. Sentimentality aside, this trade was a no-brainer for the Mets. The arguments I've heard, and there have been several, against the trade seem to come from 3 places. 1) People thinking with their hearts rather than their heads, 2) People who don't seem to realize what the point of making this trade was for the Mets, or 3) Complete ignorance.

With Dickey, the Mets were able to deal from a position of strength. The Mets were not a good team in 2012, and the chances of them being a good team in 2013 are fairly slim, Dickey or no Dickey. The Mets have many, many problems, like the lack of a decent Catcher or a viable Major League Outfielder. But one thing they did have was plenty of good starting pitching. Dickey was the headliner, obviously, but behind him, Jon Niese was beginning to come into his own. Matt Harvey ascended and immediately showed he belonged. Dillon Gee was proving solid before injury struck. Johan Santana was there too, and pitched really well for a couple of months before things unraveled for him. But while the Mets got a lot of really good starting pitching, most days they didn't hit and the end result was a lot of Met losses by a score of 3-1 or 4-2. The Mets will bring back all four of these pitchers next season (My somewhat blind and also probably foolish hope that they would bring back Mike Pelfrey ended today when it was announced he'd signed with Minnesota). In addition, other pitchers in the vein of Zach Wheeler and Jenrry Mejia are ready to ascend. Point is, the Mets don't really need to worry a great deal about their starting pitching, unless injuries strike, and that could, and will, happen to anyone. Dickey was at a point where he became expendable. Not because he did anything wrong, but because he happened to be a commodity that could bring back good value.

The prevailing thought is, obviously, that you can never have too much pitching, and that's true. But as I keep saying, you can't win if you don't hit, and the Mets offense was pretty miserable, enough so that it just doesn't make sense for the Mets to keep all this starting pitching at the expense of being able to generate any runs to back their starters. David Wright and Ike Davis will hit, but they appear to exist as an island in the middle of the Mets lineup. Being able to bring in a prospect the stature of Travis d'Arnaud is huge for a multitude of reasons. Those unfamiliar with d'Arnaud should know that he was originally drafted by the Phillies in 2007. He wound up in Toronto prior to 2010 in a trade whose centerpiece was none other than Roy Halladay. In AA ball in 2011, d'Arnaud blossomed, hitting .311 with 21 HRs and 78 RBI, and was off to a fine season in AAA in 2012 before a knee injury undercut his season. Prior to 2012, he was ranked the 17th best prospect by Baseball America, and the top prospect in the Blue Jays system. And, he's a Catcher. Last time I checked, the Mets were throwing out a virtual shit stew at that position, involving the punchless Josh Thole, the talentless Mike Nickeas and the retread Rob Johnson, all of whom combined to generate absolutely nothing worthwhile. d'Arnaud is projected for stardom, and even if that doesn't come immediately, I see no reason why he shouldn't start immediately and why he couldn't easily surpass the production from the iron triumverate. Conveniently, the Mets shipped out Thole and Nickeas with Dickey, so d'Arnaud shouldn't have much of a challenge earning the role as starting Catcher.

d'Arnaud is the impact player that Alderson was after when he shopped Dickey, but for good measure, Alderson managed to poach another top prospect from the Jays' organization in 20-year old Pitcher Noah Syndergaard. Syndergaard is still a ways from being a factor, having just finished a season in A ball, but he's built like Mike Pelfrey, boasted a K/9 rating of over 10, and has drawn comparisons to such pitchers as Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay. By time he ascends, he'll probably have learned a bit more stamina and polish, the kind of things necessary for a front of the line starter. Plus, by then, we'll know for sure what the Mets have in Harvey, Wheeler, Mejia and whoever else is kicking around the organization.

The bottom line here is that yes, Dickey will be missed. It sucks that this deal had to happen, but I trust what Alderson is doing here. This is exactly in line with the plan he's set forth ever since he took over. Alderson has targeted specific guys and held out until he was able to get the trade he wanted. So he's flipped Dickey and Beltran and acquired multiple pieces that stand to help the Mets for several years looking forward. It's a slow, tedious process, and it's going to mean another year of probably not competing very much. There are still a lot of holes. But the Mets, as built, weren't going to be any better if they didn't make the trade. Alderson has dealt depth for improvements at a sorely needed position. There are still holes here, but for the first time in several seasons, I think we can actually begin to feel slightly optimistic about the Mets chances. The hope, I think, is that 2013 plays out something like this:

1) The Mets tread water for the season and hopefully finish around .500. Maybe those 3-1 losses start to turn into 4-3 wins every so often.
2) Ike Davis plays healthy all season long and develops into one of the NL's best 1Bmen, like I think he's capable of.
3) Ruben Tejada builds on his solid 2012 season and, to some degree, Daniel Murphy does as well (I'm more optimistic about Tejada than Murphy, but at least Murphy won't embarrass himself).
4) Matt Harvey continues to step up and Zach Wheeler ascends.
5) Someone in the Nieuwenhuis/Duda/Valdespin Pu-Pu Platter turns into a reasonably respectable OF (smart money is on Nieuwenhuis I suppose, but none of them appear likely to pan out).
6) Come the offseason, once Santana and Bay come off the Books, and the Mets can go after a bigtime Outfielder and a solid Starting Pitcher (assuming this is necessary based on the performance of the current rotation).
7) Contend seriously in 2014.

World Series Championships have been won on similar lines of thinking. But in order to get to that point, the person driving the bus has to be willing to make a move that's unpopular or risky. Alderson has made a name for himself making moves like this just about every team he's worked for. Yeah, these are calculated risks he's taking with the Mets. It may not work. But I trust his judgement. He has made the moves necessary to rebuild a farm system stripped bare from mismanagement and short-sighted thinking. This will begin to pay off eventually. It won't be immediate, but this too shall pass.

Bill of Goods

I don't want to piss on the Colin McHugh parade, but when you go up against the Triple A lineup that the Colorados put out this afternoon, it's not so difficult to have a historical Major League Debut. I wouldn't go crazy comparing McHugh to anybody spectacular. Let's see what he does after a couple of times around the league. There's a reason nobody had heard of McHugh until about 2 days ago, and it's because he's not Nolan Ryan. He's not Tom Seaver. I don't even think he's Matt Harvey right now. He had an excellent start today. I get it, I understand it. But I'm tired of being sold this bill of goods. There's probably only one team that McHugh might have pitched better against, and that's the team he was playing for. The team that managed 6 runs in 4 games against the worst pitching staff in the league, a staff so bad that they pull their starters after 3 innings and just let relievers try to figure it out. A team that came into Citi Field on Monday with a record of 46-73 and left 4 victories richer.

The Mets were flawed to begin with, and their solid first half was something that surprised and tantalized everyone, but it's ancient history now. It's safe to say that every ounce of good vibes the Mets had generated earlier this season has been erased. Right now, the Mets look about as miserable as they did in 2009, and maybe that's being kind, because they're generating the kind of results that look like something out of 1993 with a roster that's a little bit 1982, a little bit 2003, a lot miserable.

I'm being awfully cynical, but how can you not be when we keep getting told about the prospects and the pieces of the future that are here now? I said it yesterday and I'll say it again; who on this team would you want to have back next season? At this point, you could count them on one hand. Wright, Ike, Tejada, Dickey, Harvey, Niese...And who else exactly? The rest can be fed to the wolves. I can't even dump on the Jason Bays anymore because it's too easy. How about Josh Thole? Has he had 2 hits in the last month? I was skeptical about him last season because his defense had gotten sloppy and he spent the entire season hitting about .240 with no power. This season? Same thing. Not an everyday Catcher. Stop telling me he is. Jordany Valdespin? Infectious, Jose Reyes-like energy? Got a few long hits at opportune moments? Can't field any position adequately? Misplays routine fly balls? Runs into outs with frightening abandon? Swings for the fences every time up? Lacks a general sense of logic and basic Baseball discipline? Not an every day player. Barely passable as a reserve. Bobby Parnell? Electric Fastball? Consistency of Oliver Perez? Not a future closer.

More than half the team looks like it's going through the motions. Players like Torres, Murphy, Baxter and Hairston aren't every day players. Murphy's close, but he can't go through these 2-for-20 streaks that he's always going through. The stink that this team is generating isn't the same kind of stink we've endured in 2009, because that was because of injuries, or 2007, because that was complacency. This is the stink of suckitude, and it's gotten so bad that it's dragging down the good players on the team. David Wright was hitting everything in sight in the first half. Now, teams are just pitching around him, and when they're not, he's gotten back into that old habit of killing himself trying to carry the team on his back. He's just not the kind of player who can do that. But since nobody else around him seems to be able to hit, or in many cases pitch, here he is again, pressing. Can you blame him for grousing about being tired of losing? Aren't we all tired of losing?

Terry Collins is just as culpable for this mess as anyone. If we're all going to heap praise on him for the job he did keeping this team together, keep them fighting and scrapping for every win they got in the first half, then he deserves blame for letting it all crumble in the face of adversity. He mismanaged the bullpen because he couldn't trust anyone, and then he started getting stuck in situations where he had to go to the bullpen and it was damned if you do, damned if you don't. The personnel he's given isn't his fault, but when I routinely have to question removing the starting pitcher, and immediately being proven right because the bullpen immediately fucks it all up, something's wrong. Terry Collins said he wouldn't tolerate exactly the kind of play he's now tolerating out of his team. So...which is it? Or has he just lost the clubhouse? If that's the case, then, hey, we may as well have just kept Jerry Manuel around chortling in the locker room.

I've been told, and believe myself, that the only way to change a lousy team is if they are completely humiliated. That's beginning to happen to the Mets right now, in the midst of this 10-32 12-30, 2 wins at home since the All Star Break stretch. Everyone watching certainly knows this, and I certainly hope people in the organization get it as well. Sandy Alderson even said as much, but does he have the leeway he's supposed to have from the wonderful owners? The hot word is that the team payroll isn't expected to increase much, and most of it is still going to be tied up in 5 or 6 players. So, what sort of freedom do the Mets have to bring in someone who can make a difference? How can they bring in real, actual Major League talent to bolster this roster? There's not much tradeable in the Minors, I don't believe (still), so will the Wilpons actually let Alderson spend some money this offseason? How long do we have to keep asking this question? It's getting  a little tired. If the great owners don't have the money to field a competitive team, then do us all a favor and get lost. Go away. Sell the team to someone who, hopefully, cares about building a winner. Because there's only so many times you can sell the same rotten stew to a long-since disenchanted fan base.

Phew. This rant might not be quite as impactful as the one Mike Francesa unleashed on the Mets earlier today, but it comes from the same place. He's tired of watching this, and he's not even a Mets fan. How do you think the Mets fans feel?

Strange Brew?

Tomorrow marks the Mets 81st game (and my 10th of the season at Citi Field). I've made a few observations, some of which I've shared here, others which have just been brewing in my head. Here's what I've noticed.

WHAT'S GONE RIGHT:
Quite a bit, even if there haven't been an overwhelming number of individually stellar seasons, there's a lot here to work with. Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson (and as much as I hate to say it, Omar Minaya) have put together an incredibly cohesive group that plays together, plays for each other, and plays to win, and that's been evident in their 43-37 record. No, it hasn't been pretty and sometimes it's been downright disgusting. But I don't know a single Mets fan who wouldn't have signed for 6 games over .500 and 3 games out of 1st place at the halfway point.

The great performances that we've gotten, particularly out of David Wright and R.A. Dickey don't need much discussion. Each is justifiably rewarded with a trip to the All Star game next week (even though Wright was rooked out of a starting spot either because the Giants fans stuffed the ballot boxes or because the Mets fans didn't), The real MVP this season, however, is probably Johan Santana. Throwing the first No Hitter in Mets History aside, all he's done is come back from major shoulder surgery and look just as good as he did before he got injured, and sometimes even better. It doesn't matter if he can't throw 95 anymore. He knows how to pitch and he can throw whatever pitch he wants, wherever and whenever. More importantly, he hasn't missed a start and he's allowed Dickey and Niese to slide comfortably into their roles as #2 and #3 in the rotation.

The rest of the rotation hasn't been terrible either. Jonathon Niese got over some early inconsistency and has found himself in a real nice groove. Chris Young, when he's healthy, is an excellent pitcher. All he's got to do is stay healthy, however. Dillon Gee has acquitted himself reasonably well as the #5 starter, not consistent, not eye-popping, but he's done what he's needed to do more often than not.

The real question is how long the rotation will hold together. The players themselves aren't the issue here but whether or not they can hold up over the remainder of the season is. Until Young resurfaced, depth had been a bit of an issue, probably because of Alderson's hesitance to rush Matt Harvey up from AAA. It's fine to keep him there, but if there are any more injuries in the rotation, it's probably in the best interest of the team to promote Harvey to the Majors. They can't afford to hand over key starts to more Chris Schwinden types, and while Miguel Batista and Jeremy Hefner are also starter candidates, they can't be trusted over a large string of time.

Other things that have gone right: Ike Davis in June, where he seems to finally have put it together. Lucas Duda's emergence as, if nothing else, a real power threat, complete with the streakiness. Scott Hairston against Lefthanders. Kirk Nieuwenhuis came up early and earned his keep. Frank Francisco didn't throw any chairs. Ruben Tejada has shown incredible polish at the plate and his approach both offensively and defensively will make everyone forget about Jose Reyes before too long. I don't know if the power will develop with time, but his style of play seems awfully reminiscent of Edgardo Alfonzo, and if that's the kind of upside he's got, I'd say he's a keeper.

WHAT'S BEEN SO-SO:
The Jordany Valdespin experiment. He plays with such an infectious degree of energy that it makes him eminently likeable, but he has absolutely no polish and no discipline at the plate, and very little in the field. You could tell this from his first Major League at bat, which came with the bases loaded, and resulted in him swinging out of his shoes at the first pitch and popping up. Better moments would follow, but he's got a lot to learn, and at 24, I wonder if he will.

Scott Hairston playing everyday: I know this is a result of Jason Bay's injury, but the fact is that Scott Hairston isn't good enough to play every day. I know his power surge has been a nice story and he's come up with a lot of clutch hits. But he's the kind of player who kills lefties and is only passable against righties. Play him all the time and he'll get exposed.

Bobby Parnell, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco: When they're on, they're on. When they're not, watch out. Francisco has often made you want to hide your eyes, and Jon Rauch has incinerated a few leads. Parnell is always a mystery because he doesn't seem to pitch to the level of his stuff. While I'm all for giving Parnell the closer role going forward, I can't say it inspires a ton of confidence. With the back end of the bullpen mostly rotting away and guys like Pedro Beato and Jenrry Mejia sitting in the Minors, I don't think the closer of the future exists on the Mets roster right now.

WHAT'S BEEN BAD:
Jason Bay. Not entirely his fault, but he needs to get out of New York. The sooner the better.

Mike Pelfrey's injury. Not that Pelfrey was going to light anyone ablaze, but he was at least a dependable commodity who could eat innings. His injury resulted in several weeks of the Chris Schwinden Pu-Pu Platter until Chris Young arrived.

Offensive production from Catcher: Though Josh Thole and Mike Nickeas have proven perfectly capable defensively (particularly having to deal with a knuckleball every 5 days), they have been mostly non existent offensively. Thole can handle the bat reasonably well, but he has no power and drives in no runs. Nickeas is even worse and yet mysteriously has driven home 12 runs this season to Thole's 10.

The Back end of the Bullpen: Batista isn't an 8th inning man. He's a mop up man. Ramon Ramirez is woefully inconsistent. I've already mentioned Rauch and Parnell and though they're not the total dregs, they're only a slight step up. Other guys like Robert Carson, Elvin Ramirez and that Egbert fellow, and whoever this Justin Hampson is either aren't ready, aren't capable, or possibly both, otherwise they might have gotten a little more use. Better depth is out there, even though finding a dependable relief pitcher is sort of like throwing horse manure at a wall and hoping it sticks.

IN SUMMATION:
The Mets have managed to overachieve this year without anybody really overachieving (I wouldn't call Dickey overachieving since his numbers were pretty damn good to begin with the last couple of seasons, I think he's learned more consistency which is why he's getting these results). One thing that's helped is that the rest of the NL East, and, in fact, the NL in general, hasn't had any real breakaway great team. The Phillies have come back to earth with a thud and now that they're talking about dealing away Cole Hamels and Shane Victorino who knows what will happen to them. The Marlins, like any "superteam" are having trouble gelling. Washington has won with outstanding pitching. Atlanta is a complete mystery. I don't know how this will play out ultimately, but the Mets are, in reality, a good reliever and probably a right-handed Left Fielder with power away from throwing a major wrench into everyone's plans.

Thole or Not Thole

Whatever he is, he's not Brian Schneider and his .174 batting average, which instantly makes him OK with me.

It's now September and with the rosters expanding to 40, we can hopefully see a host of new faces around the team that might actually prove themselves worthwhile to the future of the Mets (whatever that future may hold), as opposed to retreads, has-beens and never-weres that we've been staring at for months now. I don't know who the Mets plan to call up to the Majors, but we can only hope that it'll mean less Schneider, less Tatis, less Anderson Hernandez, less Sheffield, less horrible pitchers.

Basically, now should be the time for the Mets to take stock of what they've got and see how much retooling needs to be done. I've said in the past that the 2009 Mets were built to win now, only now was 2006. I've also said that '06 was probably the fluke and '07 and '08 were the norm. We know that, when healthy, the Mets are a good team that is more than likely only good enough to fall just a little bit short. When every major contributor to the team manages to get injured, that's bad luck. The poor finishes of '07 and '08 weren't bad luck. That was the team proving what it was. And now, bit by bit, that team is starting to get broken up. Wagner was the first to go, and he'll probably be followed by Delgado. After that, we shall see. In their place, guys like Josh Thole and perhaps a Wilmer Flores or Jenry Mejia. I don't know what the plans are for this final month of the season. But my guess is we'll be seeing plenty of new faces at Citi Field.