The More Fool You

Last weekend, I tried to be a hero and make some innovative picks based on what I believed to be some well-informed observations. Instead, I looked rather foolish as teams played straight up or generally took advantage of some controversial breaks and I ended up going 1-3 for the Wildcard Round. That's not my general pattern, but then again maybe I should have known better. The Cincinnati Bengals weren't going to go into Indianapolis and win. Though the Colts don't pose as a team of world-beaters, they were advantageously matched up against a team that has a habit of self-destructing at this juncture. A similar case unfolded in Pittsburgh, where a Steelers team that is probably better than the Ravens ended up losing because a) Their Running Back-By-Committee was doomed to fail before it even got started and b) the Ravens have a habit of turning it on at this juncture. So, now we're here in the Divisional Round where the Big Annoying Boys take the field and things really start to get interesting. Maybe. I again want to try to be a little more interesting than just going with the field, but I have the sense that this is probably going to be a more form-holding weekend than we usually get. But either way, I have an even greater sense that I'll end up looking the fool.

Saturday, 4:35pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4) 
Bad enough that the Ravens are here again, but now everyone's remembering that magical nauseating run they had two years ago where they went into New England and beat the Patriots, and if you'll recall, I picked against them in every round and they won each time. I thought they weren't that good, but somehow Wimpy Joe Flacco turns into Joe Montana in January and I'll never understand why this happens. New England, however, has put together their best team in a few years, and this is a team that finishes 12-4 and goes to the AFC Championship Game on a routine basis so that's saying something. Tom Brady is still there being Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski will probably have had his bowl of gravel for lunch, and oh by the way Darrelle Revis is lurking in the secondary. Pundits that claim to know lots of things seem to be leaning towards the Ravens because this seems to be the sort of situation where Flacco will succeed and because Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass with his feet last week and everyone needs a new Ray Lewis to hang their hat on. That's why the Patriots will win. Too much hype in the opposite direction.
Pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 24

Saturday, 8:15pm
Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
I'd heard an argument somewhere that maybe, just maybe, the Panthers can come into Seattle, run the ball, not make mistakes and keep the Seahawks off balance and give them a game. I'm not fooled. Carolina didn't play a good game last week against Arizona, but they happened to come out on top because the Cardinals were playing a 4th string Quarterback. This won't fly in Seattle. You know what's coming. The speakers are cranked up, the aluminum walls are extra tinny and the crowd noise is on queue, waiting for Cam Newton to capitulate and throw some dying quail to Richard Sherman so he can disco dance into the End Zone. This is a joke of a matchup and likely won't be interesting for more than a quarter. Make other plans for Saturday night.
Pick: Seahawks 51, Panthers 3

Sunday, 1:05pm
Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)
So the team that was 8-0 on the road goes to play the team that was 8-0 at home in this matchup of annoying teams that nobody likes but the NFL loves to cram in our faces. America's Team! Frozen Tundra! Aaron Rodgers! Tony Romo! Jerkoff head coaches! Ice Bowl! Coach Willy Loman! Woo woo woo! If you haven't puked from overexposure by the end of the 1st Quarter, I salute you, but this is the sort of matchup that the NFL and TV executives are probably peeing their pants over. Word is it's going to be -33˚ and driving snow in Green Bay, which I think is basically the weather there every day from November to April, or at least that's what the NFL wants you to believe. Meanwhile, there's still a game to be played, and stripping away the hype, you have a pair of teams that at one point or another could have been considered "The Hot Team" in the league. Dallas got off to a hot start. Green Bay was throwing 40+ points on the board each week for a while there. But they both came back to earth, and now what it boils down to is a pair of injured Quarterbacks playing in cold weather, so maybe it's better to focus elsewhere. They can both run the ball. Defense? Hmm...neither of these teams play it much. Dallas can't get out of their own way most of the time and the Packers defense is led by a second-rate commercial actor who plays football when he feels like it. What it boils down to is that this is a total snark-fest and part of me is kind of glad I booked a noon brunch so I can kind of ignore it.
Pick: Packers 45, Cowboys 34

Sunday, 4:40pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
I actually think this is the oddest matchup of the weekend. Conventional wisdom would have Peyton Manning going out, tugging his jockstrap a few times and throwing 7 Touchdown passes in the 1st half just to remind everyone that he's still the Pizza Man. And that may yet happen. The Colts, as I mentioned last week when I picked against them, don't do many things well, except that they have Andrew Luck, who may be the second coming of Manning himself, if his first few years are any indication. Denver can run and plays good defense. It's highly doubtful that the Colts can do either particularly well. But many of you know my 4pm Sunday game theory, and how in general, conventional wisdom tends to go out the window in favor of strange things happening. That, combined with the fact that strange things tend to happen to Peyton Manning in the Divisional round in general, the certain-to-be-cold weather in Denver, and the fact that he's been sort of un-Manning-like as this season has drawn on and it makes the hero in me want to show itself. There's an overthrown pass on a 3rd down play. There's a dying quail that falls into the hands of an opposing player. There's a 9-minute Touchdown drive in the 3rd Quarter. There's another game slipping away and hands are being tossed in the air and another shake of the head and a puss on the face...
Pick: Colts 23, Broncos 19

OK, ok. I couldn't resist. After all, I'm not putting any money on these games. Get your Insurance and your Pizza and your shampoo and Chunky Soup ready.

The No-Cares Bears

I feel some sort of moral obligation to make picks for the NFL Playoffs, even if the 49ers aren't involved. I suppose if I don't I might be subject to some sour grapes taunts but let's be real: The NFL Playoffs this season are going to be more about rooting against teams I don't like than anything else, and unlike the previous 3 years, I can't say I have too much of a vested interest in the whole thing. That being said, since there's no team for me to clearly root for, and plenty of teams that I don't like involved, expect a lot of snide comments and ridiculous barbs out of me while I make my picks for these next few weekends.

I suppose the one bit of solace I can take is that given how badly the 49ers played at times this season, it's probably better that they didn't make the playoffs because they stood a good chance of getting themselves bounced in an early round if they did make it, and in some ways, it's better to just not be there at all and count your losses at 8-8 than making it, getting beaten on Saturday afternoon and being "The Forgotten Team" in the playoffs like the Bengals usually are every year.

So, what is there this weekend?

Saturday, 4:20pm
Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
That the Panthers are here is by virtue of one of those little NFL quirks that gives the division champion an automatic home game, and another one of those little NFL quirks that the Panthers won a particularly awful NFC South with a sub-.500 record. But here they are, and believe it or not I think they actually have a good chance to win. The Panthers have been here before, they did win 12 games and scored themselves a 1st round bye last season (before the 49ers came to town and kicked them in the teeth), and they're facing a Cardinals team that started off 9-1 and were the darlings of the NFL before Carson Palmer got hurt, and then Drew Stanton got hurt, leaving them with journeyman Ryan Lindley at the QB helm which has kind of put their offense at a standstill. They do boast a good defense that should give Cam Newton and company fits, but I have the feeling that it won't be enough. The Panthers have the advantage of having muddled through a season where they didn't win a game for 2 months, but they won the games that counted, which ended up being their last 4 in a row, so believe it or not, the sub-.500 team is actually peaking which generally is a good thing to have happen when you're heading into the playoffs. I figure this is one of those games where the Panthers sort of lull their way to a lead, and this is one of those games where you look up and see it's the 4th Quarter and they lead by 17 points.
Pick: Panthers 23, Cardinals 9

Saturday, 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
This is one of the NFL's favorite masturbatory matchups, a rivalry game between two hated rivals, and they still want to give it that starch even if Ray Lewis isn't around to do his stupid Dougie Dance or whatever the hell it is. Somehow the Ravens are in the playoffs; they made it here as the AFC's #6 seed, the winner out of a consortium of teams that spent a majority of the season unable to get out of their own way. I believe this group included Buffalo, Houston, Kansas City, San Diego and even Miami was involved at one point, but it's the Ravens that are here, in spite of their best player being suspended in one of the NFL's stormiest scandals and Joe Flacco still looking like $120 million worth of wimpy (and if you think I'm still stewing over the Super Bowl from 2 years ago, YOU'RE RIGHT!). The Steelers have been the better team most of the season, Ben Roethlisberger has had a great year, as has WR Antonio Brown, but the issue for the Steelers right now is the availability of Le'Veon Bell, their Running Back who's proven himself to be of Frank Gore quality, but was injured late last week and is unavailable. This is a big blow to the Steelers, but even though they're forced to use one of their lesser backs, they still seem to me like they're going to advance here.
Pick: Steelers, 24, Ravens 17

Sunday, 1:05pm
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
This is a matchup between two teams that need to put up or shut up. The Bengals need a win here because they've made the playoffs every year for the last 4 seasons, and every year, they've played like schmucks and lost their first game. Generally, it's because their Quarterback, the wildly uneven Andy Dalton, has turned the ball over some ungodly number of times. The Colts need to win simply to prove that they're a more cohesive team than just some middling players with an extraordinarily talented Quarterback, Andrew Luck. Last season, the Colts were well on their way to getting embarrassed at home by Kansas City before Luck sprung to life and spearheaded a big-time comeback, and then the Colts summarily got their asses handed to them the following week in New England. Injuries play a role here too, since Cincinnati may be without Receiver A.J. Green, who was concussed last week in Pittsburgh. Indy's top receiver, T.Y. Hilton is also banged up but seems more likely to play. Tossup games like this seem to come down to running games moreso than the Quarterbacks, and here the edge goes to Cincinnati, simply because the Colts have no running game to speak of and have to rely on Luck, whereas the Bengals have a two-headed attack with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, and this could well tilt the edge in their favor. A tough call for certain, but I'll take a gamble and go with the Bengals to win their first Playoff game since the Boomer Esiason era.
Pick: Bengals 34, Colts 30

Sunday, 4:40pm
Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
This is also a real tossup game between a pair of teams that haven't had Playoff success in a long time. Dallas has won all of one Playoff game since 1997 and the Troy Aikman/Emmitt Smith regime. Detroit hasn't won one in about as long as Cincinnati has, which takes them back to when Barry Sanders was toting the rock for them and their QB was Erik Kramer (a halcyon era indeed). To compound matters, that's the Lions only postseason win in the Super Bowl Era. Dallas has had a surprisingly good season, primarily because they decided their best way to go about things was to run DeMarco Murray into the ground, eat up the clock in a majority of their games, and not try to let Tony Romo have to do too much. Romo has had a fine season for once in his life, and so the prevailing thought is that maybe he's over that general A-Rodism that overcomes him in big moments. The worry about the Cowboys is that they've been consistently mediocre in spite of a wealth of talent for so many years, that you had to think that one of these years, they might actually get out of their own way and win some games. This could be one such year, but I'm not really buying it. The same could be said of Detroit, who can match Romo with Matthew Stafford, equal parts talent and stupidity, and can match Dez Bryant with Calvin Johnson, and their RB tandem of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. The Lions also have a much better defense than Dallas, and they'll have the added benefit of having Ndamukong Suh playing this week, his suspension for stepping on Beautiful Aaron Rodgers last week having been overturned. I suppose either team could come away with the win here, but I see Detroit's defense stepping up and making plays in such a way that I don't think Dallas' defense is capable of doing. Plus isn't Romo way overdue for a real stinker of a performance? Finally, this is the 4pm Sunday game, usually a marquee matchup where something weird usually happens and things never go quite the way you'd expect it to. I see a close game, but a late Romo turnover will tilt the scales in Detroit's favor while Jerry Jones turns a Coughlin-esque shade of red.
Pick: Lions 30, Cowboys 20

So, there you have it. Enjoy the weekend if you can, and don't sit there watching these games in a mostly dark room sullenly stewing like I probably will.

Not For You

Once again, the 49ers went on the road for a Playoff game where they found themselves favored and justified the odds. In a game that showed the team's mental and physical toughness, the 49ers went into Charlotte and laid a full-scale smackdown on the upstart Carolina Panthers, shutting them out in the second half en route to a 23-10 victory, earning them their third consecutive trip to the NFC Championship game.

The 49ers took the field on Sunday with the look of a team still stewing over a tough defeat during the regular season; a game where the Panthers took advantage of some of the 49ers weaknesses and kind of embarrassed them on their home field. Colin Kaepernick said following the win in Green Bay that "...we owe them one..." and exacted their revenge with efficiency. The 49ers played this game looking pissed off, and nothing exemplified this more than Anquan Boldin, who continually beat the Panthers defense for clutch receptions, punctuated by emphatic screaming at whatever Carolina defender was in earshot. It might have bordered on the edge of classlessness, but it had its desired effect; Boldin, among others, was able to incite Carolina's defense into multiple personal foul penalties that helped to extend 49er drives. The 49ers played with a controlled anger, perhaps the truest sign of a veteran team that knows its capabilities and the task at hand, taking advantage of an amped-up Panthers team, the majority of which was playing in their first Postseason game.

That being said, it could have just as easily backfired. The 49ers came out early in the game with an attack that seemed to mirror their Week 10 meeting with the Panthers (or, perhaps, last week's game in Green Bay). The 49ers moved smartly down the field on their opening possession, with Kaepernick hitting Quinton Patton for a big 3rd down conversion and Frank Gore for another before Boldin rooked Mike Mitchell into an unnecessary roughness penalty, but ultimately, the drive stalled and ended in a Phil Dawson Field Goal. The 49ers got the ball back quickly, though. After Cam Newton strutted out with a pair of completions, his 3rd pass bounced off the hands of Brandon LaFell and into the arms of a diving Patrick Willis, giving the 49ers possession in Carolina territory. This drive, the 49ers managed to gain more yardage thanks to Carolina penalties than actual offense, and again ended up with a Dawson Field Goal to go up 6-0.

This wasn't an encouraging start offensively, although the 49ers seem to have made a habit all season of these slow-ish starts and settling for Field Goals. To this point, it hasn't hurt them too badly, but you wonder just how long that particular whip can be ridden. The Panthers appeared primed to make the 49ers pay for this late in the 1st Quarter. Newton led the Panthers on a drive well into San Francisco territory, aided by a long pass to Steve Smith and a few of his own runs. The Panthers ended up with a first down inside the 49ers 10 yard line, but runs by Mike Tolbert and a sneak attempt by Newton landed the ball at the 1 yard line. The Panthers, behind coach Ron Rivera, seemed to have made a name for themselves this season by going for it on 4th down, rather than taking the points, and succeeding. So, naturally, the Panthers went for it on 4th and 1. But Newton's attempted sneak was jammed at the line of scrimmage by Ahmad Brooks, and the 49ers turned away the Panthers without a score. But this indirectly led to a Panther score, as the 49ers, backed up against their own goal line, could only advance a few yards before having to Punt, and Andy Lee's fine effort was negated with Ted Ginn, Jr returned the kick to the 49ers 31-yard line, and one play later, Newton threw a strike to Smith for a Touchdown, instantly giving the Panthers the lead.

In need of a response, the 49ers only managed to move the ball to their own 40 yard line before punting it back to the Panthers, and Newton again shot the Panthers down the field with a quickness. He hit Greg Olsen for a 35-yard gain and Smith for another 10 before scrambling down to the 1 yard line, putting the Panthers right at the door again and on the precipice of opening up some distance between them and a 49ers team that seemed untracked offensively. But, again, the defense of the 49ers rose up and smacked the Panthers in the mouth, stopping Tolbert twice and registering a sack on Newton before Rivera decided this time to cut his losses and take the points, letting Graham Gano kick the Field Goal. This crucial decision gave the Panthers a 10-6 lead and would be the last points Carolina would score in the game.

Staring down the barrel of a game that was beginning to shape up all too similar to the frustrating game of Week 10, Kaepernick and the 49ers offense got their shit together and responded with a clutch, smashmouth drive that ate up the remaining time in the 1st half and got them their lead back. Kaepernick, who'd been fairly quiet since the 49ers first drive of the game, completing a pair of passes to Boldin and another to Michael Crabtree, who made a leaping grab in traffic for a 20-yard game that justified the lofty praise placed on him by his coach earlier in the week. Another quick strike to Boldin picked up even more yards and even more smack talk, as Boldin got upended by Mitchell and then immediately jumped up and got in Mitchell's face. Three plays later, the spotlight was on Boldin again, as he drew a key Pass Interference penalty on Drayton Florence. Kaepernick had attempted a fade route to the front corner of the End Zone, but Florence basically ran Boldin out of bounds rather than paying attention to the call. This set up Vernon Davis' tightrope Touchdown with 5 seconds left in the half, a beauty of a catch that was initially ruled incomplete and Davis out of bounds, in spite of the fact that Davis left some pretty obvious cleat marks in the End Zone. Jim Harbaugh threw one of his patented apoplectic shit fits, to the point where Boldin had to race over to calm him down, but replays confirmed Davis made a good catch and the 49ers went into the half leading 13-10, coming off a Touchdown drive, something they weren't able to do in Week 10.

With momentum now on their side, the 49ers charged out in the second half and pretty much wiped the Panthers out the door. The defense forced a quick 3-and-out and the offense responded with another Touchdown drive that was pretty much the backbreaker for Carolina. Boldin again carried the load, breaking off a 45-yard gain on a reception that saw him basically run right past Captain Munnerlyn for the reception, placing the 49ers inside the Panthers 5 yard line. Two plays later, they were in the end zone, courtesy of Kaepernick, who broke out the read option, ran left and was left with a clean path to the end zone when Florence completely overran him. This opened up a 10-point lead for the 49ers, which Kaepernick spread a little extra mustard on by mocking Newton's "Superman" Touchdown pose, before quickly "buttoning up" his shirt and performing this Postseason's first Kaepernicking.

The two 49ers possessions had tilted momentum solidly in their favor, and now it was up to the Panthers to face this adversity and mount a clutch comeback of their own. But the starch seemed to be completely taken out of their attack. The Panthers embarked on what would be an excruciatingly slow 8+ minute possession that didn't get very far. The 49ers defense had worn down the Panthers offensive line to the point where they could only manage to creak downfield a few yards at a time, and their 13 play drive that began at their own 24 managed to get only as far as the 49ers 29-yard line, before the line collapsed completely and Newton ended up taking sacks on consecutive plays by Brooks and Navorro Bowman, taking the Panthers out of Field Goal range and forcing them to punt back to the 49ers.

Now firmly in control, the 49ers set out to salt the game away by handing the ball to Frank Gore, who, after a mostly quiet game, bulldozed his way through the Panthers defense for, among other things, a 39-yard gain that aided in the setup for an icing Dawson Field Goal to make the score 23-10, after a drive that ate up about half the clock in the 4th Quarter while Newton stood on the sideline with a big ol' Shaun Marcum-esque puss on his face. By time the Panthers got the ball back, they were in near-impossible circumstances, and while Newton managed to matriculate them down the field, he did so with little to no sense of urgency and with 4:34 to go in the game, he sailed a pass in the vague direction of Greg Olsen that was promptly intercepted by Donte Whitner that for all intents and purposes sealed the game up. I personally do not like to act presumptuous and assume victory in situations like this, but Newton's pass was airmailed so badly and the body language of the Panthers by this point looked so defeated that with 4+ minutes remaining, I was already sending out "Seattle, here we come" text messages. And why not? The Panthers committed one more unconscionable Personal Foul penalty as their frustration bubbled over and the 49ers basically were able to run out the consequential remaining time and seal a date with the Seattle Seahawks in next Sunday's NFC Championship game.

The 49ers looked every bit like the elite team they've been portrayed as of late in winning their 8th consecutive game and 2nd consecutive Playoff Road game. Not only did they avenge their defeat to the Panthers in Week 10, but they really put Carolina in their place as a team of upstarts, not the Hot Team they might have been regarded as. True, the 49ers talked as much trash as the Panthers did, but what they didn't do was allow the trash talking to affect their actions. This is the sign of a team that can play smart from a psychological standpoint just as much as they can from a football standpoint. They haven't made dumb mistakes, committing only one turnover in their two playoff games, but more importantly, they haven't reacted to the inevitable trash talk that will fly around in any NFL Game. If anything, they exposed the Panthers as a talented, but emotionally immature team and they exploited this throughout the game on Sunday.

This mental toughness is something Jim Harbaugh has talked about for several weeks now, and now it's going to need to come out in the highest order as the 49ers will be traveling to a place that's been a bit of a house of horrors for them of late in Seattle's Boeing Alice In Chains Adderall Century Link Field to play their dear friends the Seattle Seahawks. It seems like the 49ers and Seahawks have more or less been on a collision course to meet in the NFC Championship all season, and it looks to be the game that everyone wanted to see, or at least the game anyone who likes well-played, smashmouth football between two teams that really can't stand one another but are built more or less the same. Mental toughness would serve the 49ers well against the Seahawks, who boast a multitude of shit-talkers, many of whom rank among the NFL's top talents at their positions. Moreover, the Seahawks fans, who seem well-represented in this commercial, seem to think they can control the game just as much as the players, which might be giving themselves a bit too much credit, but I digress. The recent struggles the 49ers have had at the Clink don't mean a damn thing anymore. What matters now is getting ready for the season's 3rd matchup with the Seahawks where the stakes are of a much higher order. The NFC Championship will rightfully be decided between the two teams that were the best in the Conference. That much is certain.

Nice To See You Again

The NFL Purist will always tell you that Divisional Playoff weekend is usually the best weekend of the season. The weak links have usually been disposed of in the Wildcard round, and now the league's real elite teams start to show what they're made of. Adding a little fuel to the fire is the fact that three of the four games this weekend are rematches of regular season games that drew a decent amount of hype. The fourth one isn't a rematch, but it does feature two teams that have a much-ballyhooed history of meeting up in the Playoffs (and should that not be enough to satisfy you, another one of these games is a Divisional matchup featuring two teams meeting for the third time this season). One need only look at the Quarterbacks to gauge how good the competition is at this level of the playoffs. When the "weakest" of the bunch is a former #1 overall pick who threw for over 4,000 yards as a Rookie, you know the competition is pretty stiff.

Last weekend, I went 3-1 with my predictions. Indianapolis advanced thanks to a miracle comeback after making me look rather foolish for the first half plus of their game. San Diego blew up Cincinnati's shit and made them look like chumps. I have, of course, already been through San Francisco's win in Green Bay. The only misstep I made was picking Philadelphia over New Orleans, as I underestimated the Saints relying on their running game, taking advantage of some holes in Philly's defense and keeping their quick-strike offense off the field. Well played by Sean Payton and Company, but they face a much taller order this weekend.

Saturday, 4:30pm
New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
This is the rematch of a Monday Night game that got a lot of hype as The Game that would determine who would be the #1 seed in the NFC and the Saints basically got their clock cleaned by the Seahawks and their juiced-up defense. Since then, the Seahawks have pretty much hummed along, only hiccuping against San Francisco and Arizona, while the Saints frittered away their division. The Saints, not given much of a chance last weekend in Philadelphia, shocked everyone by winning on a last-second Field Goal to win their first road game in Franchise History. Winning their second will be a tall order against a Seahawks team that has been more or less unstoppable in their little Tin Shack where everything seems to just bounce their way. Or it did until Arizona decided they'd had enough of this fuckery and hit the Seahawks back. The Seahawks can be hit back, but unfortunately, the Saints defense lacks the personnel of the Arizona Cardinals, and fortunately for the Seahawks, they don't have to worry about the Cardinals showing up because they didn't make the playoffs. Drew Brees and the Saints won against the high-powered Philly offense by basically keeping them off the field and relying on their running backs Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, and Brees made the necessary plays. This is all fine and good when you're playing the Eagles. The Seahawks are another story and playing keep-away becomes infinitely more difficult when you roll into Seattle with 60,000 screaming lunatics (plus another 130,000 piped in through the PA system) and Pete Carroll lays out the Adderall spread for his defensive backs. It won't be the massacre the last matchup was, but Seattle's defense will probably make a few plays and Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch will grind out the rest from there.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Saints 17

Saturday 8:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
The lone game that isn't a rematch of a regular season game, but this Patriots/Colts Prime Time matchup makes up for it by being a revival of one of the more hotly contested rivalries of the past decade. Though the lack of Peyton Manning in this game kind of takes a little of the juice out of the matchup, it's still a solid matchup of old rivals. Now, the AFC games seem to be more difficult to pick, and their two games are more or less crapshoots. This game, for all intents and purposes, seems to favor the Patriots. They're in their element, at home, with Tom Brady running the show and an offense that can move the ball and score points even if Brady were throwing the ball to Lucas Duda. On the other side, the Colts defense got torched by Alex Smith and the Chiefs last weekend and were only fortunate enough that Andrew Luck kept his cool and led them all the way back from 28 points down to win. Luck's performance will certainly go down in NFL Lore, and it certainly would give you the impression that no situation is too daunting for him. That being said, I tend to lean towards experience and the Hot Hand. While the Colts certainly indicated that they're no pushover, and while the Patriots have laid their fair share of home playoff stinkers over the past few years, Luck doesn't have Tom Brady's resume.
Pick: Patriots 37, Colts 30

Sunday 1:00pm
San Francisco 49ers (13-4) at Carolina Panthers (12-4)
A rematch of what's probably the hardest-hitting game of the regular season, a 10-9 slog that probably served as the 49ers most galling loss of the season. The game seemed to be a bit of a microcosm of the offensive woes that the 49ers had over a majority of the season, while also illustrating how potent Carolina's defense can be. In the game, the 49ers had three early-game drives that they couldn't finish, and settled for 3 Field Goals. In the end, these squandered opportunities allowed the 10 points Carolina was able to muster to be good enough to win the game. Since then, the Panthers rode the momentum of that victory to a First-Round bye, while the 49ers got themselves healthy, won a Wildcard and a Road Playoff game to get to this point. Healthy is the key thing here, because it really bit the 49ers in the ass in the first matchup with Carolina. Michael Crabtree wasn't active and Vernon Davis left with a concussion. Anquan Boldin was bottled up, leaving Colin Kaepernick with the option of throwing to Vance McDonald and Kyle Williams, and the result was that he spent too much time looking around a collapsing pocket before sailing doomed passes or, worse, getting sacked. The Panthers won, but that's not to say that they had much success on offense, either. Cam Newton generated only 169 yards through the air while completing only 50% of his passes, while the game's lone touchdown came on a busted run by DeAngelo Williams and the winning score came on a prayer 53-yard Field Goal by Graham Gano in the 4th Quarter.

The point is, the fact that the Panthers won the game doesn't necessarily mean that they dominated, and asking them to repeat the success they had against a 49ers team that is now healthy and really starting to click is a tall order, especially considering that a) Steve Smith, their elder statesman and top playmaker on offense is hurting and b) For a majority of this group, this is their first Playoff game. The 49ers are a playoff-toughened bunch that seems to raise their level of play the further into January they get. Colin Kaepernick came off an inconsistent regular season and really took over their Wildcard matchup in Green Bay, showing up without sleeves in 3˚ weather and making plays with his arm and his legs and looking very much like the force he posed as last January. You know, when this group was 5 yards away from winning a Championship.

Sure, the 49ers are kind of becoming the darlings of the league right now and getting quite a bit of hype, and when you take into account the 3-year run of success they're on, they've earned it. But a really good, young Panthers team is kind of getting written off a little bit, through no fault of their own. But if they want to have success in this game, they're going to have to set an early tone. The 49ers, early in the season, had a habit of starting slow. Over the final half of the regular season and last week in Green Bay, they've started off on fire offensively, moving the ball at will. The key would be if they can finish drives with Touchdowns rather than Field Goals, and extend their success through the remainder of the game. After one quarter last weekend, the 49ers looked like they were going to blow the Packers out, but only led 6-0. This happened against Carolina, too. But if the 49ers finish drives early and get Newton in a situation where he's going to have to lead the Panthers back from behind in his first career playoff game and all the emotions that entails, this game could get away from Carolina quickly. Even if the 49ers don't go ahead early, the Panthers still have to deal with an offense that's much more complete than the one they faced in November, and in the end, the health and experience of the 49ers is what's going to carry the day.
Pick: 49ers 20, Panthers 10

Sunday 4:30pm
San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
Another one I can't seem to figure out. Of course, as is usually the case when division rivals meet in the playoffs, the old "Familiarity breeds contempt" adage is in full effect. These two teams met twice in the regular season, with the road team winning both times. The SuperDuperChargers come into this game on an emotional roll, sneaking themselves into the playoffs and then beating the Bengals, while the Broncos have rode the Peyton Manning express to another 13 wins and a #1 seed. 13 wins and a #1 seed seems to be the M.O. for Manning's career, and usually it's followed up by an abject stinker in the Divisional round. Any and all logic would dictate that Manning and the Broncos would roll over the low, leaky Chargers and Philip Rivers, but Rivers has had a bit of a career rebirth under coach Mike McCoy's system and have gotten to this point in spite of no support and seemingly impossible odds. The Chargers won last weekend by running the ball down the Bengals' throats and making a number of key defensive plays, among them 4 turnovers. Logic would dictate that the Broncos won't make the same kind of mistakes that the Bengals did, but then again, stranger things have happened in the NFL. Particularly when it's the weird, Sunday 4pm Divisional Round game. The Red Flags seem to be in full view. Peyton Manning and his spotty playoff record. The Broncos shitting the bed in this same situation last year against an opportunistic Ravens team that was working under some higher mojo. A Chargers defense that's had the hot hand. Philip Rivers and his bizarre bolo tie. Peyton Manning and his Pizza. I know my head is saying to make the safe pick and take Denver, but, hey, I've got too many premonitions going on and I'm not putting any actual money on this, so what the hell. I'm going to be a hero.
Pick: Chargers 30, Broncos 27

Strange as it may seem, but after this weekend, there's only 3 meaningful games remaining in the NFL season (unless for whatever reason you are really into the Pro Bowl). If these games go as expected, you can expect some real slugfests to play out in all three of them. Don't forget to use your Clay Matthews, III deodorant after the game! Fuck the Panthers!

Frustration Game

After a week off, the 49ers appeared to be coming into Sunday's game with the Carolina Panthers on a roll. They were well-rested, coming of 5 consecutive double-digit wins and they were beginning to get healthy, particularly with Mario Manningham set to make his season debut and Michael Crabtree continuing on the mend. The Panthers looked likely to be a tough matchup, on a 4-game win streak on their own, but as a young team still trying to prove themselves, it seemed as though they were merely the upstart team that the 49ers would handle easily.

This is why it feels so monumentally jarring that the Panthers came into Candlestick Park, stood toe to toe with the 49ers in an absolute slugfest that was ruled by two defenses that just wanted to whack each other, and ultimately Carolina came away with a really ugly 10-9 victory that validates their hot streak. For the 49ers, nothing they tried on offense was able to work, Colin Kaepernick was forced into poor decisions or no decisions, Vernon Davis was lost with a concussion and after the 49ers forged ahead 9-0, the Panthers just stopped them dead in their tracks.

This was one of those rare 49ers games that was televised in New York, so I was able to watch it, and it was pretty easy to tell that the 49ers were in trouble by halftime. Multiple times, they had the ball well in Carolina territory in the 1st half only to have their drive stall and end in a Field Goal. Colin Kaepernick, who was really beginning to look like the force he was down the stretch last season over the last few weeks, regressed badly, allowing the Carolina defense to sack him 6 times and made no attempt to try to make things happen with his legs. Losing Davis hurt, as it usually does, but still, the 49ers, who continued to have a miserable rate of success on 3rd down, at least one of those drives should have finished in the End Zone. If they'd managed to do that any one of those 3 drives in the first half, the game probably would have finished differently. The last one, perhaps, was the most galling, because after Tramaine Brock intercepted Cam Newton and returned the ball deep into Carolina territory, the 49ers appeared to have a TD dropped in their laps. But they couldn't convert inside the 10 yard line and settled for Phil Dawson's 3rd Field Goal.

The game sat 9-0 at that point, and the defense had been playing at their usual high level. But even at their best, the opponent is still going to manage to put something together, and the Panthers were able to string a bit of a drive together that culminated in a 27-yard Touchdown from DeAngelo Williams. This would, ultimately, be the game's only touchdown and it cut the 49ers lead to 9-7 going into halftime.

In the 2nd half, the defenses took over. Neither offense was able to generate any sort of momentum, which made me even more nervous. The Panthers appeared to simply be biding time before they could make a play. The 49ers appeared to actually be uncoordinated. They didn't move the ball much at all, while Carolina was at least able to creep into 49ers territory, though Graham Gano missed a Field Goal in the 3rd Quarter. A Kendall Hunter fumble was discouraging, but led to no points for Carolina. More concerning was just how bad the 49ers offense looked, which was probably worse than they did in the 1st half. Finally, about 5 minutes into the 4th quarter, the Panthers got enough of a drive together to set up for another Gano Field Goal attempt, which he converted from 53 yards to give Carolina the lead and ultimately the win.

Still, I had to think the 49ers had it in them to respond. Surely, they wouldn't just fade out at home like this. But that's what happened. They would have the ball 3 more times over the duration of the game. They went 3-and-out the first time, Kaepernick was sacked creating an impossible situation the second time, and Kaepernick threw an interception to Drayton Florence the final time, which, with under 1 minute to play clinched this miserably frustrating 10-9 loss.

The offense has to shoulder the blame for this one. I know that the popular chatter among the talking heads is how Kaepernick is struggling and Alex Smith is 9-0 and maybe the 49ers kept the wrong guy, but that's ridiculous because to this point Kaepernick has played in a Super Bowl and Alex Smith hasn't, and keeping Kaepernick was a no-brainer just on talent alone. That said, because Kaepernick had so much success so quickly, it's easy to really jump on him for his failures. He hasn't looked especially great this season passing but consider that he's working without his #1 receiver in Crabtree, Davis has missed the sum total of 2 games, and ostensibly the remaining receivers he's had (Jon Baldwin, Kassim Osgood, Kyle Williams) haven't proven themselves capable of contributing. Williams, in fact, was cut altogether this week, taking the memory of fumbles' past with him. Basically, Kaepernick has been able to throw to Anquan Boldin and nobody else has been there for him in every game. And teams know this and have loaded up on Boldin. Getting Manningham back this week helped, but after missing close to a year I don't see how he can be expected to be a major factor.

Nonetheless, these are all good indicators as to why the 49ers currently have one of the NFL's worst passing attacks in spite of having some of the NFL's best talent. With a really tough game in New Orleans on Sunday, a solution to this problem has to be the focus this week. One thing missing from the game plan seems to be a more effective usage of these speedy backs the 49ers have, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James. James, who's replaced Williams as the team's Punt Return specialist, showed his stuff last postseason and Hunter is always tough. Both of them should be more factors than they are. Neither are going to take running plays away from Frank Gore, but in situations where a screen or a short pass are necessary, these guys should be looked to as viable options because they've proven they can play, but they need more opportunities to do so.

It couldn't hurt. People are jumping off the bandwagon once again even though the 49ers are still 6-3. But now 2.5 games behind Seattle, a shot at the division appears all but dead and if they don't correct their problems, a playoff spot could be in severe jeopardy as well.