Big Boy Pants

Championship weekend has arrived in the NFL once again, and after three straight years of involvement, the 49ers aren't around and therefore I can sort of sit back and watch these games like a normal person instead of a catatonic wreck. Then again, given the depth of my feelings toward the two NFC Championship participants, maybe it's better if I make other plans. Last weekend, I made three conventional picks and one calculated gamble and unlike in the Wildcard round, everything worked and I went 4-0. New England beat Baltimore in a rousing double-comeback affair that sort of exemplified everything that makes Tom Brady great. Seattle didn't totally humiliate Carolina, but they came close enough, winning a game that probably was closer than it should have been because Carolina scored in garbage time. The shootout I expected in Green Bay didn't happen and had things broken one way or the other early in the game, the Cowboys could have pulled off the upset. But they couldn't capitalize, they didn't get the call on the Dez Bryant catch/no-catch call and even if they did, they couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers, who did the Discount Doublechecking rather than receiving it this year. Then, there was the Indianapolis/Denver game, which I thought Indy would win, and they did because all of a sudden Peyton Manning started looking really really old, and his receivers forgot how to catch passes. This was just as I expected. The Colts fell behind early but clawed their way back, eventually took a lead and rode the momentum home from there. They had a pair of long scoring drives in the 2nd and 3rd Quarters, the Broncos could find no rhythm, and they could have conceivably sent Peyton Manning into retirement with one more puss on his face.

So, now we're here.

Sunday, 3:05pm
Green Bay Packers (13-4) at Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
The matchup that everyone wanted is probably the matchup I least wanted to see but knew was unavoidable. Green Bay and Seattle were the two best teams in the NFC for a majority of the season, and after they both started slow, they got their acts together and at one point or another were really stomping everyone in their path. The Packers certainly have the more potent offense right now. Rodgers is at the top of his game, and Eddie Lacy has performed well when he's had to, to say nothing of the fact that the Packers have a no-name group of receivers that look better than they deserve to because of who's throwing them the ball. Seattle can score points too, because America's Sweetheart Russell Wilson does Russell Wilson things and Marshawn Lynch is on another cycle of HGH is "tough to tackle." They don't have sexy receiving options, but they get the job done. Defensively is where the game will probably be decided, because where the Packers, as you well know, are led by this decade's Brian Bosworth, Clay Matthews III, the Seahawks are led by Shire Specialty Pharmaceuticals Richard Sherman and his mouth, combined with Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright and Cliff Avril and the names just go on and on and on until you want to smash your head in. Which is a pretty accurate description of what they'll do to you. And that's before we even begin to talk about the Clink, where you can rest assured the "Soundtrack of 1,000,000 people rioting" will be playing over the PA speakers throughout the game. So, basically, although I'd like to not see this happen again, the Seahawks have too much on their side for the Packers to be able to overcome. Rodgers might do his best, but why fight it.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 21

Sunday, 6:40pm
Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4)
Since the beginning of the Andrew Luck era in Indianapolis, the Colts have been regularly and thoroughly flattened by the Patriots every time they've matched up. I don't know for certain that this will happen again this time, but I do think that the Patriots are going to come out on top in this game. Though the Colts have been winning on Luck's talent and general guile, they have also been winning with the "groundswell effect," which I mentioned earlier, where they may fall behind early, but they kind of hang around, and hang around, and maybe they lead by 3 points at halftime, and they get the ball coming out of the half and score and then get a turnover and coast home. That won't quite work against the Patriots, who have been known to run the ball down the Colts' throats and not give Luck a chance. The Colts can't run the ball much, although this Little Mack Herron fellow has been a nice story, he's also their 4th option at RB. This means Luck is going to have to throw a ton in order to keep pace, and though Wimpy Flacco had success doing so last week, he still couldn't beat the Patriots. The Patriots proved they can finagle themselves out of the depths last week, twice coming back from 14-point deficits behind Brady, some offensive formation chicanery (which to the best of my knowledge might have been slightly unsportsmanlike, but not illegal), a trick play that resulted in a Touchdown, and a defense that held the line when they absolutely needed to. The Colts might be able to hang around and make this interesting, but on another one of those cold New England January nights, I don't think they have enough to take down the Bill Belichick Machine.
Pick: Patriots 34, Colts 28

So, once again, there you have it. Order your Pizza now, maybe Peyton Manning himself will deliver it since he's not playing tomorrow.

The More Fool You

Last weekend, I tried to be a hero and make some innovative picks based on what I believed to be some well-informed observations. Instead, I looked rather foolish as teams played straight up or generally took advantage of some controversial breaks and I ended up going 1-3 for the Wildcard Round. That's not my general pattern, but then again maybe I should have known better. The Cincinnati Bengals weren't going to go into Indianapolis and win. Though the Colts don't pose as a team of world-beaters, they were advantageously matched up against a team that has a habit of self-destructing at this juncture. A similar case unfolded in Pittsburgh, where a Steelers team that is probably better than the Ravens ended up losing because a) Their Running Back-By-Committee was doomed to fail before it even got started and b) the Ravens have a habit of turning it on at this juncture. So, now we're here in the Divisional Round where the Big Annoying Boys take the field and things really start to get interesting. Maybe. I again want to try to be a little more interesting than just going with the field, but I have the sense that this is probably going to be a more form-holding weekend than we usually get. But either way, I have an even greater sense that I'll end up looking the fool.

Saturday, 4:35pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4) 
Bad enough that the Ravens are here again, but now everyone's remembering that magical nauseating run they had two years ago where they went into New England and beat the Patriots, and if you'll recall, I picked against them in every round and they won each time. I thought they weren't that good, but somehow Wimpy Joe Flacco turns into Joe Montana in January and I'll never understand why this happens. New England, however, has put together their best team in a few years, and this is a team that finishes 12-4 and goes to the AFC Championship Game on a routine basis so that's saying something. Tom Brady is still there being Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski will probably have had his bowl of gravel for lunch, and oh by the way Darrelle Revis is lurking in the secondary. Pundits that claim to know lots of things seem to be leaning towards the Ravens because this seems to be the sort of situation where Flacco will succeed and because Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass with his feet last week and everyone needs a new Ray Lewis to hang their hat on. That's why the Patriots will win. Too much hype in the opposite direction.
Pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 24

Saturday, 8:15pm
Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
I'd heard an argument somewhere that maybe, just maybe, the Panthers can come into Seattle, run the ball, not make mistakes and keep the Seahawks off balance and give them a game. I'm not fooled. Carolina didn't play a good game last week against Arizona, but they happened to come out on top because the Cardinals were playing a 4th string Quarterback. This won't fly in Seattle. You know what's coming. The speakers are cranked up, the aluminum walls are extra tinny and the crowd noise is on queue, waiting for Cam Newton to capitulate and throw some dying quail to Richard Sherman so he can disco dance into the End Zone. This is a joke of a matchup and likely won't be interesting for more than a quarter. Make other plans for Saturday night.
Pick: Seahawks 51, Panthers 3

Sunday, 1:05pm
Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)
So the team that was 8-0 on the road goes to play the team that was 8-0 at home in this matchup of annoying teams that nobody likes but the NFL loves to cram in our faces. America's Team! Frozen Tundra! Aaron Rodgers! Tony Romo! Jerkoff head coaches! Ice Bowl! Coach Willy Loman! Woo woo woo! If you haven't puked from overexposure by the end of the 1st Quarter, I salute you, but this is the sort of matchup that the NFL and TV executives are probably peeing their pants over. Word is it's going to be -33˚ and driving snow in Green Bay, which I think is basically the weather there every day from November to April, or at least that's what the NFL wants you to believe. Meanwhile, there's still a game to be played, and stripping away the hype, you have a pair of teams that at one point or another could have been considered "The Hot Team" in the league. Dallas got off to a hot start. Green Bay was throwing 40+ points on the board each week for a while there. But they both came back to earth, and now what it boils down to is a pair of injured Quarterbacks playing in cold weather, so maybe it's better to focus elsewhere. They can both run the ball. Defense? Hmm...neither of these teams play it much. Dallas can't get out of their own way most of the time and the Packers defense is led by a second-rate commercial actor who plays football when he feels like it. What it boils down to is that this is a total snark-fest and part of me is kind of glad I booked a noon brunch so I can kind of ignore it.
Pick: Packers 45, Cowboys 34

Sunday, 4:40pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
I actually think this is the oddest matchup of the weekend. Conventional wisdom would have Peyton Manning going out, tugging his jockstrap a few times and throwing 7 Touchdown passes in the 1st half just to remind everyone that he's still the Pizza Man. And that may yet happen. The Colts, as I mentioned last week when I picked against them, don't do many things well, except that they have Andrew Luck, who may be the second coming of Manning himself, if his first few years are any indication. Denver can run and plays good defense. It's highly doubtful that the Colts can do either particularly well. But many of you know my 4pm Sunday game theory, and how in general, conventional wisdom tends to go out the window in favor of strange things happening. That, combined with the fact that strange things tend to happen to Peyton Manning in the Divisional round in general, the certain-to-be-cold weather in Denver, and the fact that he's been sort of un-Manning-like as this season has drawn on and it makes the hero in me want to show itself. There's an overthrown pass on a 3rd down play. There's a dying quail that falls into the hands of an opposing player. There's a 9-minute Touchdown drive in the 3rd Quarter. There's another game slipping away and hands are being tossed in the air and another shake of the head and a puss on the face...
Pick: Colts 23, Broncos 19

OK, ok. I couldn't resist. After all, I'm not putting any money on these games. Get your Insurance and your Pizza and your shampoo and Chunky Soup ready.

Cold Heart

Although the temperature wasn't as historically cold as people expected, it was still pretty cold in Green Bay on Sunday, at 3˚ with a wind chill of -14˚. This mattered very little to the 49ers, who stormed out behind their hearty, sleeveless Quarterback Colin Kaepernick and beat the Green Bay Packers 23-20 to advance to the Divisional round of the NFC Playoffs. In spite of the cold, and in spite of playing on a gnarly looking "frozen tundra" that appeared to be comprised of either dead grass or painted dirt, the 49ers played mostly unfazed and stood toe-to-toe with the Packers, ultimately prevailing on Phil Dawson's last-second Field Goal.

It's Kaepernick who's drawing all the attention after this game, and deservedly so, since it was his 227 passing yards and 98 rushing yards that served as The Difference in the game. Kaepernick did what he tends to do in situations like this: raise his game to the magnitude of the moment. Stating after the game that "It ain't that cold, it's all mental," Kaepernick once again proved himself too difficult for the Packers to stop and although he might not have lit them on fire like he usually does, he still outplayed Aaron Rodgers and made several clutch plays in key moments to set up the 49ers to win.

That being said, Rodgers has to get some credit for simply dragging the Packers back into the game, because early on, it looked like the 49ers were going to run them out of their own building. After forcing a Green Bay punt on the opening possession, the 49ers raced down the field, with Kaepernick and Michael Crabtree hooking up for a majority of the yardage, including a 31-yard catch on a 4th down play that set up a Dawson Field Goal. The Packers did nothing on their ensuing possession, again going 3-and-out, aided by a sack split between Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith. The 49ers took advantage of a bad punt by Tom Masthay and began their second possession in Packers' territory. And again, they drove down inside the Packers' 10-yard line, this time with Anquan Boldin picking up the key yards. But again, the drive stalled and resulted in another Field Goal. This, annoyingly, had been a problem all season, and I was concerned that settling for Field Goals when for all intents and purposes the 49ers had completely dominated the game and shown themselves to be playing on a completely different level than the Packers. But these things change quickly in the NFL, and all it can take is one play sometimes to turn the tide.

The Packers eventually did get their break, but only after a 3rd drive that saw Rodgers get sacked and the Packers go 3-and-out. The 49ers began another march down the field and appeared primed to score again, until Kaepernick made what was really his only bad throw of the game, an underthrown pass to Vernon Davis, who'd broken free near the Packers' 10 yard line, that was intercepted by Tramon Williams. This stopped the 49ers and energized the Packers and Rodgers, who methodically moved down the field in a mostly no-huddle attack comprised around short passes and runs by Eddie Lacy. The 14 play drive culminated in a Touchdown pass from Rodgers to Jordy Nelson that was nearly knocked down by Tarell Brown. But Brown whiffed and out of nowhere the Packers had the lead and served notice that this game wasn't going to be anything close to the cakewalk it had started out looking like.

That being said, for every time the Packers forged downfield for a score that gave them the lead, the 49ers always found a way to come up with the clutch response. Naturally, it was Kaepernick who made the big play, this time using his legs and simply outrunning a majority of the Green Bay defense. It wasn't a designed run—and it's easy to overlook that many of his runs against the Packers aren't designed—but nonetheless, he took advantage of the Packers defense playing man coverage and not leaving a defender to spy on him and took off, racing around the left end and not stopping until he'd made it all the way down to the Packers' 13-yard line. The 42-yard run set up Frank Gore to plow through the middle and score on a 10-yard run two plays later as the 49ers regained the lead 13-7. On their ensuing possession, the Packers drove down quickly to kick a Field Goal as time expired in the half.

The intensity kicked up significantly in the second half. Neither team did much in the way of offense in the 3rd Quarter. The 49ers kicked off the half by burning a Time Out before running their first play. This set a negative tone as the 49ers had the ball 3 times in the Quarter and punted all 3 times. They did manage to move the ball their second possession, as Kaepernick hit Crabtree again for a big gain, but two plays later, Kaepernick took an ugly sack from Nick Perry, who took it upon himself to flex his muscles (in the absence of Semi-talented Commercial Actor and rumored Football Player Clay Matthews, III, I guess Perry had to compensate for idiot Packer behavior) and style after doing so. Fortunately, the 49ers defense was just as hearty; the Packers generated very little themselves, and one drive saw the 49ers sack Rodgers on back-to-back plays, courtesy of Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks.

It wasn't until the 4th Quarter that someone finally broke through. Unfortunately, it was the Packers. Rodgers had begun to heat up again late in the 3rd Quarter, and with the Packers facing a 4th Down at the San Francisco 30 yard line, their coach, Mike McCarthy, eschewed the tying Field Goal in favor of going for the jugular. This nearly blew up in his face, as Ray McDonald appeared to have Rodgers grasped for a sack. But somehow, Rodgers managed to keep his feet, break the tackle and escape long enough to loft a miracle pass to Randall Cobb, who landed inside the 49ers 10-yard line. This, then, would be the kind of play that showed Rodgers' greatness at work, and could easily have been a backbreaker for the 49ers, particularly when John Kuhn plunged in for a Touchdown a few plays later that gave the Packers a 17-13 lead.

Potentially backbreaking, yes, but fortunately, not actually backbreaking for the 49ers. After seemingly losing all momentum, the 49ers just went out and grabbed it right back, thanks once again to Colin Kaepernick, with assists from Vernon Davis and LaMichael James. It was James, who shined as a return man and change-of-pace back last Postseason, who kicked things off with a long Kickoff return that gave the 49ers good Field Position. Then, it was Kaepernick, doing it with his legs again and taking off on another busted play for a 24-yard gain, moving the ball well inside Packer territory. One play later, Kaepernick whistled one of his bullet passes over the middle of the field to Davis, who caught the ball in between a pair of defenders and landed in the End Zone for a Touchdown that gave the 49ers the lead right back. Once again, when they were absolutely in need of the score, the 49ers went out and got it.

It was clear, at this point, that this game was going to continue to go back and forth, and it would be decided either by the team that had the ball last, or the team that made a mistake. The Packers took the ball and embarked on a good drive that appeared primed to end in the End Zone once again, but the 49ers defense stopped them cold inside the 10. Mason Crosby's Field Goal tied the game 20-20 with 5:06 to play. So, that gave the 49ers a pretty easy task: Take the ball, move down the field, run down the clock, score and get the hell out of there.

Of course, it's never that easy.

Kaepernick opened the drive by hitting Crabtree for 11 yards. Two plays later, a touch pass intended for Davis nearly ended in Disaster as Micah Hyde got his hands on the pass, but was unable to intercept it, which was fortunate, because he had nothing in front of him but open field. Faced with a 3rd down on the ensuing play, Kaepernick went back to his old reliable target, Michael Crabtree, for 17 yards and a 1st Down. Crabtree, who's made a name for himself as a top-flight route-runner with outstanding hands, showed in this game just how much the 49ers missed having him in the lineup over the early part of the season. For the game, Crabtree had 8 catches for 125 yards, which obviously was his best output of the season, and he couldn't have picked a better time to do it. Kaepernick has relied on him on 3rd down continuously, just as Alex Smith did before him, and here as the 49ers were trying to move towards a victory, Crabtree came up big once again.

But there was still more ground to gain, and a few plays later, the 49ers found themselves in another 3rd and long situation, this time at the Green Bay 38 yard line. Certainly, a pass was the call, and certainly, Crabtree would be the preferred target. But if it didn't work, it was certainly too far away for Phil Dawson to be counted on to kick the Field Goal, and with just over a minute to play, too much time to just hand the ball back to Aaron Rodgers. Kaepernick dropped back to pass and the Packers came with a blitz. But in their zeal to get to Kaepernick, the Packers overpursued him, allowing Kap to race around the corner and pick up those key 8 yards and then a few more, moving the ball closer, and allowing the 49ers to run the clock down even further behind some Frank Gore runs, setting up Phil Dawson to kick home a 33-yard Field Goal and send the 49ers on to play the Carolina Panthers next weekend.

Naturally, the mood after the game was that the team immediately wanted to run in and get out of the cold. Ultimately, the better team won the game, although it wasn't the 49ers cleanest effort. Certainly, the weather was a factor, but habits that have annoyingly formed over the course of the season showed themselves, particularly early when the 49ers couldn't finish off their drives. Unlike in prior games, this wasn't a product of play calling. Kaepernick was afforded the ability to score with his arm in these situations on Sunday, but the receivers weren't there for him, and a lane for him to run didn't exist. Clock management was also a problem, as the 49ers burned two Timeouts in the 1st Quarter, and two more halfway into the 3rd Quarter. These didn't come back to hurt them, but under different circumstances, perhaps it could have. And for all that went wrong, or could have gone wrong, there was still plenty of good. The Defense got off to a flying start, stuffing the Packers run game and not allowing Rodgers to complete a pass until the 2nd Quarter. And when the Packers did get going, the defense bent, but didn't break. Eddie Lacy and James Starks never found consistent holes in the defense for big runs, Navorro Bowman, Patrick Willis and Company kept holding them to short gains. And for all his heroics, Aaron Rodgers only mustered 177 yards passing on the day, and the 49ers managed to keep constant pressure on him. Offensively, of course Kaepernick and Crabtree were the stars, but Frank Gore also chimed in with 66 tough yards and a Touchdown. Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin didn't light it up, but they made their catches count, and overall, the offensive line did their usual stellar job of creating lanes and protecting the Quarterback.

So, once again, the 49ers have disposed of the Packers. The Packers can't get over their Colin Kaepernick Problem and so for the second year in a row, the 49ers have Discount Doublechecked them into the offseason. This makes Kaepernick 3-0 against the Packers and each time, he's managed to confound them and make absolutely every play necessary. This also would be the 4th Postseason game in which Kaepernick has really elevated his game, and having now done this over two seasons, will begin to give Kap the reputation of being a Big Game Quarterback. He's now won two Road Playoff games, so the venue doesn't matter to him. The weather probably won't be as much of a factor next weekend as the 49ers journey down to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers in a rematch of what was probably their most frustrating game of the season, a 10-9 loss at Home in Week 10 that saw the 49ers unable to do much of anything on offense. At the time, the 49ers didn't have Crabtree and Davis was lost during the game with a concussion. The Panthers sacked Kaepernick 6 times and really manhandled them in the process. This isn't lost on the 49ers. After the game, when asked about playing the Panthers, Kap said that his only thought is "...that we owe them one for what they did at our house."

People kept saying that the 49ers and Packers are vastly different than they were in Week 1. The 49ers and Panthers are vastly different than they were in Week 10, too. I wouldn't expect the same result next Sunday.

Return To The Big Time

The NFL season is basically a blur. The NFL Playoffs are anything but. Even though there's still the same amount of time in between games, it often can feel like weeks before they take the field. I've know that the 49ers would be in the Playoffs for some time; it was more or less a foregone conclusion that they'd be there somehow, even when they looked their worst. But here they are, and along with 7 other teams, they begin the chase for the Big Game this weekend, while the Big Boys get to sit back and watch these teams beat each other up in what appears to be a series of bone-chilling affairs, culminating in what's shaping up to be the bone-chillingest of them all on Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. Here now, my picks for the weekend:

Saturday, 4:30pm
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
The Chiefs and Colts basically both made it to this point without much drama. The Chiefs did it by fattening up on a pillow-soft schedule early, racing out to a 9-0 start before coming back to earth down the latter half of the season. The Colts got off to a hot start, cooled off over the middle of the season after Reggie Wayne got hurt, and then retooled themselves to finish strong. The Colts can also boast to having beaten Denver, San Francisco and Seattle, all of whom are among the top teams in the league. The Chiefs have ridden the recipe of Alex Smith's smarts and Jamaal Charles' power running, and a tough defense that ranked among the tops in the league. But their schedule has dogged them and few believe they're as good as their record might indicate. The Colts, on the other hand, have Andrew Luck and are well served by a breakout season by T.Y. Hilton. Their running game is presumed to be weak because Trent Richardson is a colossal dud, but Donald Brown is kind of a sneaky-dangerous all purpose back. I picked the Colts to win last year in Baltimore but they weren't quite there yet. This year, I think they're ready for a deeper playoff run.
Pick: Colts 24, Chiefs 17

Saturday, 8:00pm
New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
One of those games that confounds people. By all accounts, the Saints should probably wipe the floor with Philadelphia. They're easily the better team, Drew Brees is on top of his game and all their pieces are in place. And yet whenever they go on the road in the playoffs, no matter how good they look, they have this tendency to turn to mush. The Seahawks did it to them in 2010, the 49ers did it to them in 2011, and now here they are, going to Philadelphia in this weekend's Cold Game #1, to face the Eagles, NickFolean Dynamite and their Blur Offense that, once it got going, really propelled the Eagles to this point. True, the Eagles sort of happened into winning the NFC East primarily because nobody else wanted to win the Division, but digging a little deeper reveals the fact that the Eagles have the best Running Back in the NFL right now in LeSean McCoy and a Quarterback in Nick Foles who does not make mistakes. It would be up to the Saints Defense, which has been better this year than in prior years, to try to force a few turnovers if they want to tilt things in their favor, but I don't know if that's going to be in the cards given how smartly Foles has played of late. More than likely, this game is going to dissolve into a shootout between the high-powered Saints and the high-paced Eagles, and in a track meet in the cold, the circumstances seem to favor the Eagles.
Pick: Eagles 44, Saints 38

Sunday, 1:00pm
San Diego Chargers (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
I waffled the most on this game. For whatever reason, I want to pick the Bengals. Not simply because they haven't won a playoff game since 1990, or because they had a decided advantage at home this season, where they've been 8-0, or because they've got this nice underdog spirit behind Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, and a good defense. They just seem like it's their time. And yet I can't seem to shake the idea that this is just a setup for Philip Rivers to come roaring in, slinging some weird sidearm passes around to guys like Keenan Allen and Seyi Ajirotutu and Antonio Gates and just giving the Cincinnati fans one more giant shitburger to carry them into the Winter. This is Cold Game #2, and a rematch of the legendary Freezer Bowl back in the 1981 postseason, where the enduring image is of poor Dan Fouts fluttering passes into a deathly wind with icicles hanging off his beard. You think Philip Rivers is the kind of guy who gives a crap about the cold? Yeah, me neither.
Pick: Chargers 24, Bengals 20

Sunday, 4:30pm
San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
But, of course, all these games are mere appetizers to my main course in the late game Sunday. Did you know that "The Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field" is really a myth? Legendary voice of NFL Films John Facenda never actually said it. It's really just a Bermanism. Plus, it's redundant, because all Tundras are, by nature, frozen. So let's just get past all this Lambeau Field mystique crap and get to the point: It's going to be Really Fucking Cold in Green Bay on Sunday, because that's what happens in Green Bay in January. And while we're on the subject of Packer Brown-nosing, I watched NFL Network's excellent "A Football Life" series this week, where they devoted two hour-long programs to Vince Laaahm-Baaaa-Di. I know his name is synonymous with NFL royalty and I'm supposed to cream my pants at the mention of his name and the Packer Sweep, but after watching this program, I'm basically convinced that if Willy Loman were an NFL Coach, he'd be Vince Laaahm-Baaaa-Di.

Yes, it's a long-winded way of saying that I don't care for the Packers much. The Packers come into this game as the ultimate rags-to-riches tale, having lost Quarterback Aaron Rodgers to injury, suffering through weeks of losing and the indignation of a Tie Game, only to have the remainder of their division fall apart around them and Rodgers to come back and lead them to the Miracle Victory for the Ages last Sunday in Chicago. Rodgers is back, Rodgers is hot, and here we go. They get this game in their stadium, in their weather and under their circumstances.

That being said, they can't beat the 49ers. For as great as Aaron Rodgers is, he's not able to carry the entire game on his back, and the 49ers are just a better put-together team than the Packers are. San Francisco comes into this game having kind of quietly put together a 6-game winning streak, to say nothing of the fact that a majority of this roster is still kind of quietly steaming over their loss last February. Also of note is that in two previous meetings, Colin Kaepernick has completely shredded the Packers. Last year, he did it with his legs. So the Packers muscled up and sold out to stop him from running. The result was that in Week 1 this season, Kaepernick shredded them with his arm, and this was when his receiving corps consisted of Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and Me. Now, he's got a full arsenal at his disposal, while Green Bay's defense hasn't improved much over the course of the season. On the other side, while Rodgers may have saved the Packers' asses last week at the end, he didn't look great for a majority of the game, and their run game may suffer with Eddie Lacy ailing. The Packers and Rodgers took advantage of an awful Bears defense last weekend. The 49ers defense, who incidentally went the entire season without allowing a 100-yard rusher, is significantly better than the Bears defense, and I don't think I need to go into the sordid details.

Then, there's the weather. I know everyone wants to say "Ooooooooh, Packers Weather!" etc, etc, and yeah, to a certain extent that may be true. But once you start getting into temperatures in the single digits or below zero, the weather will affect you whether you're used to it or not. So for anyone who wants to make a stink about the delicate 49ers playing in the harsh cold, well, the Packers have to play in it too, and I don't believe they played in any games this season where the game time temperature was 3˚ with a forecast low of -20˚. So throw the weather theories out the window, because it's going to suck for both sides. This game comes down to talent and mental toughness, and the 49ers have the Packers beat on both counts.
Pick: 49ers 33, Packers 20

What, you're surprised? Go enjoy the games! Have a Blast! Eat some Peyton Manning Pizza! Fuck the Packers!

In Case You Forgot...

The 49ers began their season in 2012 with a game against the Packers in Green Bay, and then played them again in San Francisco in the 2nd round of the playoffs. Both times, the results were the same: Resounding 49ers victories where they controlled the tempo of the game. But the two wins were accomplished with two different Quarterbacks leading the way. The victor of the first game, Alex Smith, is now gone from the 49ers, having been dealt to Kansas City. The second game was completely stolen by Colin Kaepernick, who took over for Smith midway through the season, took the 49ers all the way down to the Super Bowl, and took off from there.

Kaepernick has, since the Super Bowl, become quite the sensation, drawing heaps of attention around the league about his style of play, the Read-Option offense he runs, and how much success he stands to have once coaches around the NFL figure out how to properly defend the Read-Option. The Packers, who were victimized by Kaepernick to the point of embarrassment last January, appeared to be particularly outspoken about the liberties they could take with Kaepernick once he begins to run his plays. One reason the Ravens had success against Kaepernick early in the Super Bowl was that they simply started to hit him on every play. Clay Matthews, III and his hair specifically said that the Packers had to hit him early and often if they were going to have success. Jim Harbaugh responded by asking for a rules clarification, because it seemed to him like his Quarterback was deliberately being targeted. This may or may not have been true, but in reality, what did it matter until it actually happened?

In the end, the Packers did hit Kaepernick. They hit him plenty, and Clay Matthews, III even started a near-riot by hitting Kaepernick late and out of bounds in the 2nd Quarter. They hit him, but they couldn't stop him. Just in case people had forgotten, Kaepernick reminded everyone on Sunday that he's not just a gadget QB who runs around alot to make plays happen. He can hang back in the pocket and fire the ball downfield with the best of them. The Packers didn't allow Kaepernick to get outside and run all over the place, so instead, Kaepernick just beat them with his arm, throwing for 412 yards and 3 Touchdowns as the 49ers once again beat the Packers to open their season, 34-28.

This game played out as a testament to just how good Kaepernick can be, and also was a sign that his solid performance down the stretch last year was no fluke. After misfiring on his first two passes, Kaepernick caught fire on the 49ers 2nd possession. Though his receiving options might have appeared limited, with both Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham out, Kaepernick still spread the ball around without much difficulty, slinging bullets in to newcomers Anquan Boldin and Vance McDonald, as well as old reliables like Vernon Davis and Bruce Miller. The 83-yard drive featured a pair of 3rd down conversions—a 49ers specialty, particularly against the Packers—and finished where it was supposed to: in the End Zone, courtesy of a post corner pass to a virtually wide-open Vernon Davis for the 49ers first score of the season.

The Packers, however, served notice that they weren't going to go down quietly. After their first drives featured a bunch of running plays that didn't go anywhere, they let Aaron Rodgers make the plays, which he can do as well as anyone, and with lightning quickness, the Packers shot down the field for the tying score. After a 49ers punt, the Packers went back to the ground game, but rookie Eddie Lacy fumbled, giving the 49ers great field position and a golden opportunity to regain the lead.

The 49ers appeared to have squandered this particular opportunity, having found themselves a yard short of a 1st down, but instead of declining a penalty that would have led to 4th down inside the Packers 10, the Packers opted to make the 49ers replay 3rd down. This, of course, set the stage for the play that everyone's talking about today: Clay Matthews, III's egregious late hit on Kaepernick on 3rd down. This appeared to be the perfect storm of bad; Matthews had already talked about hitting Kaepernick during the week, and on this particular play had launched himself at Kap and clotheslined him well after Kap had stepped out of bounds. But Kaepernick would give Matthews no satisfaction, he hopped right up and clapped his hands. His teammates, however, felt differently. In the kind of reaction that's really a testament to how much Kaepernick's teammates love him and respect him, a gang of San Francisco players, led by Offensive Lineman Joe Staley, flew in to get a piece of Matthews. After a near-riot ensued and the dust cleared, the late hit on Matthews was offset by Staley taking on Matthews. Then, of course, the referees screwed up the enforcement of the penalty, giving the 49ers a 3rd crack at 3rd down, and the 49ers did what they usually do on 3rd down against the Packers: Convert. This time, they not only converted the 3rd down, they scored, on a play that the 49ers had executed in a similar situation last January. Last time, Kap hit Crabtree on a quick slant and Crabtree darted into the End Zone. Sunday, Kap went to his new favorite target, Anquan Boldin, and Boldin did the rest for his first 49ers Touchdown.

The 49ers then had a golden opportunity to break the game open a little bit. After swapping punts, Aaron Rodgers started to string a drive together until Jermichael Finley couldn't handle a pass and instead had it slip through his hands into the waiting arms of Safety Eric Reid. For Reid, a rookie making his NFL debut, it was a matter of being in the right place at the right time. Brought in to replace the departed Dashon Goldson, Reid was all over the field on Sunday, and certainly looks up to the task of filling the Pro Bowler's shoes. Unfortunately, the 49ers couldn't capitalize on the turnover and Rodgers responded by leading the Packers down for the tying touchdown just before the half.

The 2nd half started with another solid 49ers Touchdown drive. With the run game more or less squelched, Kaepernick continued to beat the Packers through the air, primarily to Boldin. In a rather methodical 6+ minute drive, the 49ers moved downfield and scored on Davis' second Touchdown of the afternoon. But once again, the Packers allowed the 49ers to get no further ahead, and eventually responded with yet another tying score, this one from Rodgers to Jordy Nelson.

As the game moved to the 4th Quarter, the 49ers appeared primed to strike once again. Kaepernick continued to just feed the ball in to Boldin with ease. But every time he tried to run, he was usually snuffed out. With the ball inside the Green Bay 20, Kap rolled out to run, but got flattened by Matthews in the kind of annoying play that allowed him to flex his muscles and make more stupid commercials. Having stalled, the 49ers had to settle for a Field Goal, which wasn't ideal given that this game was looking every bit like the shootout people had forecast. It looked even worse when the Packers finally got their run game started. Lacy, who had more or less been on the bench since his early fumble, started and finished a drive that saw Rodgers hit a pair of long passes to put Green Bay in position to take their first lead of the game with 8:26 to play in the 4th Quarter.

So, here we were again, down by 4 points and in desperate need of a Touchdown in response. And before the paint had dried on the Packers lead, it was gone. It took 3 plays for the 49ers to get in position, the key one being a deep pass from Kaepernick to Boldin that covered 43 yards. Kendall Hunter followed that play with a 23-yard run. 2 plays later, it was the 49ers Old Reliable, Frank Gore, pounding the ball in for what would ultimately be the winning score.

Only ahead 31-28, the 49ers needed to get tough on both sides of the ball in order to keep Green Bay from coming back. The Defense did their part, forcing the Packers into a 3-and-out deep in their own territory. Then, following the punt, Kaepernick and Gore set out to put the game away. It came down to a 4th down play in Green Bay territory. Last year, the 49ers were able to fake the fading Packers into an Offsides penalty. This time, it didn't work. But undaunted, the 49ers still went for the win and it paid off, as Kaepernick's final pass of the day fittingly went right to Boldin, sending Kaepernick over 400 yards for the day, Boldin over 200 yards and allowing the 49ers to milk the clock down, kick a Field Goal and give the Packers time for but one desperation heave that Rodgers couldn't even get off. And so, though it might have been a bit too close for comfort, the 49ers still came out with a tone-setting victory.

The 49ers will be a headache for everyone they face all season if Kaepernick plays as well as he did yesterday. The fact that he didn't run the ball very much is indicative of that, because that was what everyone was banking on him doing. More than a few people mentioned that yesterday was Kap's first career 300-yard game, which is true, at least when the regular season is concerned. It's easy to forget, because the 49ers ultimately lost the game, but Kaepernick did throw for over 300 yards in the Super Bowl. Running is only a part of his arsenal, and yesterday should serve as a reminder to everyone that even if he's forced into being a pocket passer, he's got the tools to be a winner. There's going to be hell to pay for anyone who forgets that. Even if his receiver options are "limited," as they appeared to be yesterday. You know, before Anquan Boldin reminded everyone that he's still able to catch anything he can get his hands on and Vernon Davis reminded everyone that he's still an elite receiver in his own right.

After the game, Kaepernick was quoted as saying "If intimidation is your game plan, I hope you have a better one." Nothing rattles this guy. This will be important next week when the 49ers journey north to see their dear friends, the Seahawks.

Showstopper

I mentioned on Thursday that I was ready for Saturday night's 49ers/Packers playoff game to get underway already, so you can imagine that most of my day Saturday was spent working myself into a hyper ball of tension. It didn't help that just about everything I was reading and hearing from "experts" seemed to favor the Packers to win the game. Even though the 49ers had the better team and the game in their building, that seemed to matter little. How could the 49ers hold down Aaron Rodgers and his galaxy of stars. How could the 49ers win with Colin Kaepernick making his first Playoff start? The stage was set for everyone's chic picks, the Packers and Seahawks, to go on the road, kick their opponents in the nuts and then meet in an Epic NFC Championship game next Sunday.

Early on, it looked like everyone might have been right. Kaepernick came out and immediately threw an interception that Sam Shields ran back for a Touchdown. On the ensuing possession, it appeared that Kaepernick was just as antsy as I was. He was under and overthrowing his receivers, only managing a 1st down via Penalty. Kaepernick started out completing 1 of his first 5 passes, the 49ers were facing a 3rd and 10 on their own 33 yard line, and I was apoplectic. Instant disaster was staring the 49ers right in the face. Already behind, about to hand the ball back to Aaron Rodgers...Where was this game going?

Kaepernick had to scramble around on the 3rd down play, but managed to loft a touch pass out to Frank Gore, who broke free for a 45-yard gain down to the Green Bay 22 yard line. Three plays later, Kaepernick faced another 3rd down play. The Packers came with a blitz, Kaepernick saw a lane down the left side of the field and shot through for a game-tying Touchdown.

In reality, throwing the early Pick-6 was the best thing that could have happened to Kaepernick and the 49ers, for multiple reasons. For one, throwing a little adversity the way of the 49ers right away gave them the opportunity to come back and set a tone that whatever Green Bay did, the 49ers would be game enough to match it. Second, between the kickoff and Kaepernick's TD, about 6 minutes of game clock, more like 25 minutes in actual time elapsed, all time in which Aaron Rodgers had to stand on the sideline, and all time in which the Green Bay defense had to spend on the field.

By time Rodgers finally took a snap, he was cold. Rodgers started equally as poorly as Kaepernick, this wasn't quite as magnified since he didn't turn the ball over, but except for a 3rd down prayer to James Jones on the Packers's second possession, he didn't do much. The Packers regained the lead one play after the Jones catch when DuJuan Harris, the Packers' Running Back du Jour, ran it in from 18 yards out, but that was pretty much the only thing of note the Packers were able to accomplish on the ground. This, in fact, was the last time the Packers held the lead the remainder of the night.

Not that it didn't require a few breaks for the 49ers, but in a game that appeared rapidly developing into a shootout, Kaepernick was just getting warmed up. By game's end, Colin Kaepernick would put forth a record-setting performance, one that displayed just how dangerous a weapon he really is, how multifaceted a talent he can be, and how right Jim Harbaugh was when he made the switch to Kaepernick mid-season.

Down 14-7, the 49ers embarked on a drive that stalled at midfield. Andy Lee's punt appeared primed to pin the Packers back deep in their own territory. But their return man, Rookie Jeremy Ross, muffed the punt, and C.J. Spillman immediately fell on the ball, giving the 49ers an instant scoring opportunity. Three plays later, the 49ers, who converted 3rd downs at will all night, were back in the end zone when Kaepernick whistled a quick slant pass in to Michael Crabtree, who split the Packer safeties and raced in for the tying score. In response, Rodgers attempted another Home Run ball that was picked off by Tarell Brown. Had the Packers bothered to tackle Brown, this might have been no worse than a punt, but Brown ran the ball back about 30 yards, ending up in Green Bay territory and setting up the 49ers up for another score. This one, much like the others, was comprised by Kaepernick just Making The Plays. He converted yet another 3rd down by scrambling and fired another Touchdown, threading the needle to Crabtree for his second of the night.

The Packers defense, suspect all season and porous against mobile Quarterbacks, had no answer for Kaepernick. They couldn't cover receivers in zone coverage, and any time they blitzed, Kaepernick was able to escape and gain yards on the ground. Kaepernick had now been able to find his legs, settle in and proven himself more than capable of standing toe to toe with Rodgers, who answered the 49ers Touchdown with an impressive one of his own, hitting James Jones for the score on a drive aided by an idiotic roughing penalty on Dashon Goldson (Goldson was flagged for diving on a pileup late, something he probably should have known better than to do).

Tied once again with 2:33 to go in what was shaping up as a wild game, the 49ers would have been wise to score before halftime, with the Packers set to receive the kickoff after halftime. Score they did, as Kaepernick just went right back to work picking the Packers apart. A trio of scrambles went for 19, 18 and 9 yards, putting the 49ers in good enough field position for David Akers to line up for and make his only attempt of the night, a 36 yard attempt that gave the 49ers the lead, 24-21, going into the half. After his ugly start, Kaepernick had more than settled in, he was taking over the game. His 11 rushes had gone for 107 yards, which was not only enough to lead the team, it was more than the 99 Adrian Peterson had been able to muster the prior week in Green Bay. Moreover, the 49ers held an embarrassing lead in time of possession, holding the ball for nearly 2/3rds of the half.

The Packers needed to make some kind of adjustment, particularly on defense. Kaepernick and the 49ers had beaten them to the punch continually throughout the half. They had no answer for Kaepernick, and if they couldn't come up with some sort of solution, the game was going to get out of hand. Early in the 3rd Quarter, the Packers tried to give the 49ers a bit of their own medicine, forcing a 3-and-out—the only one they would get all evening—before Rodgers led a lengthy drive that culminated in a Field Goal by Mason Crosby, knotting the game once again at 24.

This would be the last moment the Packers were relevant in this game.

The 49ers opened their ensuing drive with Kaepernick slinging in a pair of passes to Crabtree covering 24 yards. Kaepernick had already shown his stuff, but he stole the show on the following play. With the Packers heavily pursuing the run, Kaepernick faked a handoff to LaMichael James, pulled it back and took off around the right end. Before anyone on the Packer defense knew what was going on, Kaepernick was off to the races, outrunning everyone on an electrifying 56-yard Touchdown run that tilted the game solidly in the 49ers favor.

The Packers, in response, completely abandoned the run. Rodgers passed and passed, but couldn't sustain a drive. Their punt pinned the 49ers back at their own 7 yard line, but that only gave the 49ers an opportunity to kill the Packers more methodically. After spending most of the first 3 quarters on the field, the Packers defense was beginning to wilt. Punishing runs by Frank Gore were sandwiched around Kaepernick continuing to zip passes all over the field, one to Crabtree for 16 yards, and a deep strike to Vernon Davis that covered 44 yards and made Troy Aikman's jaw drop. Gore punched the ball in from a yard out on the first play of the 4th Quarter, giving the 49ers a firm lead at 38-24. With the Packer defense shot, the 49ers were one stop on defense from running their asses out of Candlestick Park and Discount Doublechecking them back to Green Bay. Rodgers gamely tried to lead them back, but his best opportunity—a deep pass—sailed just out of the reach of Greg Jennings, and the Packers were forced to punt away once again.

The 49ers final drive of the game further demoralized the Packers and iced the game. Pinned back at their own 7 yard line once again, the 49ers moved the ball easily, mostly on the ground, until they were faced with a 4th and 1 deep in Green Bay's territory. The Field Goal would have been the easy option, but instead, the 49ers lined up as if they were going to go for it. The thought process was to try to get Green Bay to jump offsides with a hard snap count. This rarely works, but somehow, Kaepernick managed to dupe B.J. Raji to jump, giving the 49ers a 1st down and the opportunity to run more clock. Anthony Dixon's 2-yard Touchdown finished things off, the 49ers second straight 93-yard drive, this one eating close to 8 minutes off the game clock. By time the Packers scored an academic Touchdown, there was under a minute to go and the game was no longer in doubt.

Clearly, this was a statement game by the 49ers, and particularly by Colin Kaepernick. Given a questionable chance at best to beat the Packers, the 49ers went out and really stomped them, particularly in the second half. Everyone went out and did what they needed to do, but Kaepernick was the one who emerged as the showstopper on this night. He'd had some outstanding performances this season, but under the glare of the Playoffs, Kaepernick raised his game to a level equal to the magnitude of the game. Always a threat to run, Kaepernick's performance on the ground was otherworldly. His 16 carries, many of them on broken plays where he was forced to scramble, went for an astronomical 181 yards. To put this into another kind of perspective, this is like Jose Reyes driving in 80 runs as a leadoff hitter. You don't expect this kind of production from your Quarterback. The fact that Kaepernick's performance set an NFL record for rushing yards by a Quarterback in any game is indicative of that. But if that wasn't enough, Kaepernick also outgunned Aaron Rodgers through the air. He passed the ball at will, undaunted by his sloppy start, ending up with 263 yards through the air to Rodgers' 257. Most of his passes were of the "Wow" variety, darts to his receivers. The Packers had no answer for anything Kaepernick threw at them. You almost got the impression that they hadn't bothered to game plan for him at all.

Kaepernick didn't do it alone. Kaepernick's offensive line, led by Joe Staley, Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis (all Pro Bowl-bound) regularly picked up the Green Bay pass rush, and cleared many of the running lanes for Kaepernick to run through. Frank Gore, after a slow start, pounded the ball on the ground in the second half, contributing heavily to the Packer defense getting gassed late in the game. Gore ran for 119 yards, and they were 119 angry yards. In the season opener, Gore had beaten the Packers by running outside the tackles. Saturday, Gore just pounded the ball up the middle repeatedly, at first for short gains, but as the game progressed, the 6-7 yard gains turned into 10-15 yard gains. Michael Crabtree continued his breakout season with the kind of game that would have earned him enhanced recognition, catching 9 passes for 119 yards, most of them in traffic, many of them to convert 1st downs, and 2 for Touchdowns. But with Kaepernick's performance, Crabtree's fine game got lost in the shuffle. Not that he, or anyone else, seems to mind. The whole is what matters, and in their resounding victory, the 49ers set a team Playoff record by running up 579 yards of Offense. It's worth noting that every time they generated more than 450 yards of Offense in a Playoff game, they won the Super Bowl.

Defensively, the 49ers clearly benefited from their week off. Justin Smith, absent the final weeks of the regular season, returned without incident. Though the 49ers only picked up one sack on Rodgers, courtesy of Patrick Willis, they also rarely allowed the big play, forcing the Packers to have to piece long drives together and constantly placing them in long-yardage situations. And just as the 49ers offense eventually wore down the Packer defense, the 49ers wore down the Packer offensive line in the second half. This was a hallmark of the Bill Walsh-era 49ers teams. If you continually beat your opponent to the punch, eventually, they will wear down and give you the decided advantage.

So, the Quest for Six will continue. The 49ers move on to the NFC Championship game for the 2nd year in a row. They'll be on the road in Atlanta next Sunday, as the Atlanta Falcons stopped the Seahawks dead in their tracks with a heart-stopping 30-28 victory on Sunday. Though Atlanta's victory was certainly impressive, they also showed their weaknesses in blowing a 20-point lead with startling quickness in the 4th Quarter. There, but for a miraculous last-second clutch performance from Matt Ryan and Matt Bryant, the 49ers could be at home, preparing for a grudge match against a red hot and fired up Seahawk team in a game that likely would have mimicked the Championship game against the Giants last year. But Seattle has been put in their place and sent home to watch the 49ers take on the Falcons for a chance to go to the Super Bowl. This is the game they've been waiting to get to all season, and they'll have the chance to break down the door they were knocking on last year.

The Big Boys

I'm actually making my picks at what is for me a somewhat early date this week. That it's been a bit of an intense week for me might be an understatement. I'd run through a brick wall if it meant time could just jump to 8pm Saturday night and I could sit and watch the 49ers and Packers slug it out in their game. But there's still two days yet before I can really get myself too worked up about it. Mostly, I've passed the time reading blogs on the game and following the 49ers "Quest for Six" campaign. There's also three other games that I have to predict, and many of them involve teams that I don't care for very much. In fact, the other NFC game, the Seattle Seahawks/Atlanta Falcons matchup, involves a current 49ers Division Rival and a former division rival, so no matter who wins that game, I probably will have plenty to snarl about. Both of the NFL's Darlings won last weekend, and most of the experts, I'd assume, will pick them to win again this weekend. Nonetheless, games still have to be played, so everyone should be careful not to prematurely anoint someone a champion just yet. Funny things happen in the NFL, particularly when the Divisional Round is concerned.

I was 3-1 on my predictions last weekend, only losing when the Ravens beat the Colts. In retrospect, I feel somewhat foolish having made this pick. I probably should have known better than to go with the mostly rebuilt and inexperienced Colts on the road like that, but sometimes you make the risky pick. That ends the suspense of the quest for a 11-0 postseason, but maybe 10-1 is a possibility.

Saturday, 4:30pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
The prevailing thought is that neither AFC Playoff game this week is much of a contest, and that may well be true. Many seem to think that the Broncos will rampage over the Ravens, and the fact is that they probably will win. They're a much better put-together team, and Peyton Manning eats Joe Flacco for lunch on his lesser days. The Ravens won last week primarily due to riding the Ray Lewis Mojo and also due to their ability to pressure Andrew Luck into making poor throws and mistakes. They won't be able to do this against Peyton Manning, who's been playing about as well as he ever has. So, their best hope would be to try to control the game with Ray Rice, who's the best Running Back on the field in this game. I don't,  however, think this will go so well, since Peyton Manning thrives on a quick-strike, no-huddle attack that zips down the field. Should the game dissolve into a shootout, that would be instant disaster for the Ravens. So, yes. The Ravens first, last and only hope is to control the ball. Not that that wasn't blatantly obvious. Ray Rice fumbled twice last week. That doesn't bode well.
Prediction: Broncos 30, Ravens 20

Saturday, 8:00pm
Green Bay Packers (12-5) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
The buildup for this game feels to me an awful lot like last year's Divisional Playoff game, when the Saints came into San Francisco all high and mighty, and everyone thought Drew Brees was going to come in and light the 49ers on fire, and the 49ers would be overwhelmed by the moment and the Saints were going to cruise on. What ended up happening was that the 49ers smacked the Saints in the mouth and held them off at the end. It feels like a similar story with a different cast of characters. Both these teams are battle-tested. The Packers come in riding the wave of a big-time hot streak behind Aaron Rodgers. The 49ers didn't surprise anyone this year like they did in 2011, and the result was that they've been a bit more inconsistent this year. That said, they did open their season with a rather impressive 30-22 victory over the Packers, exploiting weaknesses in the Packers' run defense and offensive line. But that was week 1, and a lot has happened since then.

The big story this season was, for the 49ers, the switch at Quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick. The ultimate risk, Jim Harbaugh sacrificed the steady efficiency of Smith for the big play ability—and unpredictability—of Kaepernick. The results to this point have been mixed, Kaepernick has been rather boom or bust and the offense as a whole seems to still be in a period of adjustment to the frenetic energy he seems to bring.

On Defense, the 49ers proved in Week 1 that they could contain Rodgers, mostly. But the key for all of this remains whether or not Justin Smith is able to play, and if he can (it appears he will), how effective he's going to be. Justin Smith's ability to disrupt opponent's offensive linemen limits the opposing run game, and also opens up lanes for Aldon Smith to get sacks. Without Justin Smith, the 49ers defense has been vulnerable against the run. This may not be a great concern, seeing as how the Packers have a terrible running game, but regardless, Aaron Rodgers is the best player on the field and can raise hell at any given moment. A healthy Justin Smith limits the Packers' meager ability to run and also will create more pressure on Rodgers, who was sacked a league-high 55 times this season.

Last week, at the start of the Packers/Vikings game, I mused that Minnesota being forced to use Joe Webb at Quarterback didn't bode well for the 49ers. Webb, a speedy, mobile QB who specializes in running around a lot to create plays, plays a similar style of QB to Colin Kaepernick. But Webb was forced into the lineup cold, after not having played much all season, and it showed. Webb proved himself mostly incapable of being able to throw a pass, and the Packers exploited this. Kaepernick may have a similar style to Webb, but he has far better tools. He won't spend his night holding the ball too long and throwing desperate, dying quails to nobody in particular. If anything, both he and Frank Gore should be able to pound the ball on the ground fairly well against the Packer defense.

This game seems to be confounding most Football observers, because although the 49ers pose a lot of matchup problems for the Packers, the Packers ultimately have the best player on either team in Rodgers, and the 49ers have a Quarterback making his first Postseason Start with a lot of question marks around him. In a Quarterback-driven league, this means a lot. But does it? Ultimately, I think most people may have already anointed the Packers as the team of Destiny and, perhaps, are too afraid to pick against them. But I haven't anointed anyone yet. I'll wait until February 3rd to do that.
Prediction: 49ers 20, Packers 14

Sunday, 1:00pm
Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
How do you follow up a preview like that one? This game seems to be a bit more cut and dry than the SF/GB game. The Seahawks have been on a rampage, and the Falcons appear to be this season's paper tiger, having coasted through the NFL's easiest schedule to a 13-3 record and a #1 seed. These are a pair of eminently unlikeable teams. I've already said plenty about Seattle this year. But just to recap, after watching their game against Washington, people are now starting to notice that Seattle pushes the envelope of being a dirty team. Their defensive backs have been laying out opposing receivers for weeks, and to add insult to injury, after beating Washington, one of their DBs decided to try to fight one of the Washington players. All a reflection of their D-bag coach. Additionally, Russell Wilson has been drawing praise for running down the field to throw blocks for his Running Backs, but what nobody wants to admit is that Wilson isn't actually throwing any blocks. He's just running down the field and sort of getting in the way of defenders. He appears to purposely be avoiding hits. But, no matter, so long as they win games, he's a Hero. Somewhere, this will be exposed.

But, once again, they're probably the better team in this game, because Atlanta has been boring and overhyped for years. Matt Ryan has appeared to make a career for himself by storming around the sidelines screaming "YEAH!!!" with ferocious intensity while not really doing anything particularly great, and their coach, Mike Smith just looks like a rubber-faced doofus. Not surprisingly, they've managed to lose every playoff game they've appeared in. The pressure is really on them this year, and unfortunately, the Seahawks are probably the last team they want to see.
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Falcons 24

Sunday, 4:30pm
Houston Texans (13-4) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Kind of an overlooked game, because it was only a few weeks ago that Houston came into New England on a Monday Night and got housed by the Patriots. Though I don't suspect this will be another blowout, I (and probably everyone else) thinks the result will ultimately be the same. I flip-flopped on this game a bit, because New England does have a fairly recent history of shitting the bed in the Divisional Round against a chippy opponent (see: 2010 New York Jets), but they've also been known to lay down the hammer here as well. The Texans defense might make things a little hairy for Tom Brady, but then again, pressure doesn't seem to faze him. On offense, the only hope they have is pretty similar to the only hope the Ravens have: Hope Arian Foster can just run and run and run and eat up all the clock, because Matt Schaub isn't likely to best Brady in a shootout.
Prediction: Patriots 26, Texans 18
(Yes, I kind of mailed this one in. After writing those other previews, I'm burnt out.)

So, that's my take on what is generally considered the best weekend of the NFL's season. If things go well, you can expect that I'll be in a ferocious mood talking about the Seahawks. If they don't go well, I'll be in an even worse mood. That's all I can tell you. Following your team in the NFL playoffs isn't much different than following your team in the MLB playoffs, except that the games happen less often, so you're stuck waiting around getting worked up. Bring it on. Fuck the Packers. 

Media Darlings

As usual, I've waited until the Morning of the first Wildcard games to make my picks. Usually it's been out of general laziness. This year, it's only partially out of general laziness. I've also had a bit of a crisis of conscience about picking these games, because I've got a horse in this race, even if the 49ers aren't playing this weekend. Also, the two NFC Teams that seem to be drawing the most favor this weekend are also the two Flavors Of The Week, one of whom I'm going to have to deal with watching come 8pm next Saturday. I'll mention them when I get to picking the games, but just for clarity's sake, these are the teams that everyone's fawning over, showering their Quarterback with all sorts of praise, and basically handing them a clear path through to Championship Weekend. These teams get enough ink and enough jock-rubbing that if you root for another involved team, it's really begun to get irritating, and you want one of their opponents—preferably your team—to knock them in the mouth and put them in their place. But I digress. They've got their own problems this week, and I'm just going to sit back and watch it unfold  before I worry about which team the 49ers will face.

Saturday, 4:30pm
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) at Houston Texans (12-4)
If this seems familiar, that's because it is. These two teams met in the same game at the same time last season, with the Texans, behind 3rd String Quarterback T.J. (Don't call me Tyler!) Yates. The Bengals made some mistakes and the Texans pulled away in the second half for a relatively easy victory. A lot of what I've been hearing this week involves the Texans (as an aside, I find the Houston Texans, currently the NFL's youngest franchise, to be rather cumbersome. Even typing this out, I find I instinctively will type Houston Titans, which never existed, although the team that is now the Titans used to be the Houston Oilers, the perennially lame-duck franchise that was rumored to move for years until they actually did. Houston got another team 6 years later, which baffled me, and they had to suffer through the stigma of having David Carr as their franchise Quarterback for too many years, but now they've gotten it together) slumping late in the regular season and the Bengals hungry for a playoff victory, not having won a Playoff game since 1990, when their Quarterback was the cranky Boomer Esiason. Some signs may point to Cincinnati having an edge here, but I can't say I see it. Houston got off to a really fast start before regressing later in the season, but by that point, their playoff spot, and a home game, were all well-assured. Cincinnati has been one of those annoyingly inconsistent teams all season; the fact that they're the #6 seed tells you that they basically just happened into a Playoff berth (this usually is the case with 1 or 2 teams each season, and it's almost always the #6 seed). Basically, they ended up being the best of a bunch of marginal teams (you can lump them in with non-playoff teams like Pittsburgh, San Diego, the Jets, etc that just flat out stunk), and were helped out by the fact that the AFC was full of bottom feeders this season. Teams like that tend not to last very long in the Playoffs, and usually they're long forgotten by the time Championship Weekend rolls around.
Prediction: Houston 27, Cincinnati 17

Saturday, 8:00pm
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Have you heard about the Packers? Lemme tell you, they got a great Quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, he throws the ball all over the field and does a really cool dance whenever the Packers score a Touchdown. And on Defense, they have this awesome Linebacker named Clay Matthews (III) who has wild blonde hair and flexes his muscles on the field. These guys are the COOLEST!!! They're going to the SUPER BOWL!!! Packers, Packers, Packers! Lambeau Leap! Frozen Tundra! Vince Laahm-Baaah-Di!

Pardon me, I have to go vomit now.

Perhaps I could be accused of being somewhat bitter, and I can't say the Packers haven't earned some praise since they did win a Super Bowl two years ago, but the problem is that when you win a Super Bowl, and you're one of the NFL's staple franchises (see: Packers, Giants), what happens is you become pervasively annoying, so much so that many people, particularly that team's own fans, aren't even aware of it. The Packers won Super Bowl XLV, Aaron Rodgers started doing TV commercials, Clay Matthews, III (and it's time we made note of the fact that he's Clay Matthews, III., in deference to his father, an outstanding LB in his own right, and his grandfather, who also played in the NFL—if Robert Griffin, III can do it, so can he) was all over the place, even some of their lesser known players like Greg Jennings are on Commercials. Just be thankful Brett Favre isn't still around. And there's the whole Lambeau Field mystique and the cheeseheads...It's getting a little tired. I suppose knocking the Packers makes me somehow anti-American or something, but I don't care. I don't like them. The problem is, they're going to be playing this game at home, it's probably going to be about 20 degrees out in Wisconsin, they're pissed off because they think they should have had the #2 seed and a bye, and everyone is feeding into this.

They're playing a Vikings team that beat them last week, and while Adrian Peterson, who is simply a delight to watch, gashed them last week and may well gash them again, but their Quarterback, Christian Ponder, is, at best, middling, particularly when outdoors. There are ways that Minnesota could keep this game close, but it involves a lot of ball control and luck, and hope that Aaron Rodgers can be pressured into mistakes. It's possible, because of the Packers' general lack of a running attack, but I don't think the Vikings will be the team to do it tonight.
Prediction: Green Bay 33, Minnesota 20

Sunday, 1:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Two teams that have sort of done it on smoke and mirrors. This is the one game I've had the hardest time figuring out. The Colts have sort of made it this far on Luck, both the literal luck and their Rookie Quarterback Andrew Luck, winning a number of close games in spite of an aging defense and a poor running game, combined with the Mojo of ChuckStrong, and how they've rallied around their Leukemia-stricken Head Coach Chuck Pagano. The result is one of the real feel-good stories in the NFL this season. On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens are more or less the Over-The-Hill gang on defense, as evidenced by their great linebacker Ray Lewis announcing this will be the last time he'll do his annoying dance (A word on Ray Lewis: Great player, yes. Hall of Fame Linebacker, yes. But let's not forget that he was almost sent to jail in 2000, and let's not even put him in the same ballpark as Lawrence Taylor as far as "Best Linebacker Ever" is concerned). They've had a season similar to Houston, where they started off hot and then came back to earth. They also have an erratic Quarterback in Waka Flacco, who's the kind of Quarterback who you may not often win because of, but you'll sure as hell lose because of (and as an aside on Flacco, I've gone on record as calling him the Ted Lilly of the NFL: He's got a modicum of talent, but he's incredibly wimpy-looking. He can blow up at any second, and he constantly looks like he's about to burst into tears and cry for his mother). They've also benefited from a good deal of luck. So, someone's luck is about to run out. I think it's Baltimore's turn.
Prediction: Indianapolis 23, Baltimore 20 (OT)

Sunday, 4:30pm
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Washington Redskins (10-6)
Bill Simmons wrote in his column yesterday that if the Seahawks could have stopped Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals in week 1, they would have been 12-4, won the NFC West and had the #2 seed and a bye this week. Well, they didn't, so they're on the road, away from their loud stadium and obnoxious fans. Lightly regarded at the beginning of the season, Seattle has sort of rode this groundswell of a hotshot Rookie Quarterback and a thundering running back, and a chippy Head Coach who skips around the sidelines and runs up the score, and an opportunistic defense that may or may not be full of cheaters. They hung around and hung around and won a few really close games, and then they started to believe it, and they started to rip up several opponents, including the 49ers. But I'm still not convinced. They've taken advantage of some pretty weak teams, and a 49ers team that was injured and unprepared. And on the road. Should they have to face the 49ers again, it'll be in San Francisco. Unlike the Packers, they're being anointed without actually having won anything, so I'm really hoping that someone steps up and puts them and their stupid coach in their place.

Unfortunately, I don't think the Redskins can do that. Though Washington has had a great season of their own, has won 7 games in a row, and boasts a team somewhat similar to the Seahawks (minus the annoying coach and cheating defenders), their defense isn't quite as good as Seattle's. They won't come out and start blasting people out of the box. But what I am interested in is to see just how Robert Griffin, III and Alfred Morris handle what's probably the toughest defense they've seen all year. To the Redskins' credit, they've eked out a number of close victories, but not against any teams that had a really good defense. What I do know is that this won't be a romp for Seattle. They've really walked over some lesser teams (the fact that Pete Carroll insistently continues to pass and fake punts when the game is out of reach may have something to do with it), and while they'll probably beat Washington, this will probably be more shootout than cakewalk.
Prediction: Seahawks 37, Redskins 31

So, there you have it. If this makes some sense, more power to me. Whatever happens, the 49ers will, I'm sure, be ready for whoever shows up in San Francisco next Saturday.