Not Especially Well-Informed (2008 American League Preview)

Sunday evening was the Auction for my Fantasy Baseball league. In the past, particularly over the past few years when I was co-owning a team with the Former El Guapo, we would have long study sessions, breaking down positions and deciding which players, specifically, we should be targeting.

This year, I'm owning by myself. I bought The Sporting News Fantasy Baseball guide like I always do, sometime in late February. But I really didn't have much time or energy to really study for the draft like I usually do. In fact, outside of skimming the magazine a few times, I really didn't prepare for the draft at all. I went in pretty much cold. On some level, you can get away with this, since it is an auction, and you already pretty much know who's good and who's not. But you can only get by so much using this strategy, especially when the auction comes down to dollar players and scrubs at the end of the draft. Usually, I've done well at this point in the draft, but then again, I've also done a really good job at finishing in 9th place in my league every year. So, why not not study for the draft? I actually ended up with a team I'm relatively happy with (and includes, among others, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera and John Maine). And, although it remains to be seen, I have this feeling I might actually do better this season than in previous years. But then, that could just be gas.

You're probably wondering where I'm going with all this.

Last year, I pretty much trashed the AL as Fatboy Baseball, and Commie Baseball. El Guapo pointed out that the AL is more Reagan Baseball rather than Commie, but he couldn't deny me the Fatboy part. To be blunt, I'm not a fan of AL Baseball. I don't like games that require 4 hours to play despite an inherent lack of managerial strategy. True, the AL boasts a better stock of teams. But that's academic, and runs in cycles. I don't pay too much attention to the AL as a whole, and therefore, I tend to stay away from predicting it. But then, maybe knowing less about a league might make it easier for me to handicap it.

(As with the NL, Win-Loss records are approximations and can be taken within a range of +/-5)

AL EAST
1) Boston Red Sox (99-63)
I still think the Red Sox are easily the class of their division, the class of their league, and probably the Class of Baseball this season. They really didn't change much of the team that really romped their way to the World Championship last season. The loss of Schilling for an indeterminate time would likely hurt them, except that they've stockpiled such a talented group of young arms (consider that Clay Buchholz, who tossed a No-Hitter in his 2nd ML Start, is basically buried in AAA for the time being) that Schilling might as well skip the season and it's still very likely that the Sox won't miss a beat. Figure Manny will bounce back from an 0ff-year, Ortiz will be Ortiz, and the production from guys like Youkilis, Lowell and Pedroia remain the same and you've basically got the most loaded team from top to bottom you'll find in the Majors this season. I wouldn't pick against them.

2) New York Yankees (93-69)
For the first time in as long as any of us can remember, this is actually a new-look Yankees team. The Joe Torre era ended with another playoff flop, and the result is that this Yankee team has a markedly different feel to it. Much of the offense has been retained, which is logical since the offense really didn't struggle until the postseason. A-Rod was retained, which means that you can count him in to carry the load, with Jeter providing the intangibles. I also look for a breakout season from Robinson Cano, who might hit himself into a higher spot in the batting order. But the key to the Yankees lies in their pitching staff, which will be asking an awful lot from a questionable rotation consisting of Overrated Wang, Pettitte, Aging Mussina and Unproven guys Ian Kennedy and Philip Hughes. Joba Chamberlain, probably the best of the youngsters, inexplicably remains in the bullpen, and it's unclear if he'll ever make it out. This year will be a year of transition and struggle for the Yankees, but not a rebuilding year, and I still think they'll hit their way into a Wildcard berth. Why wouldn't they? They're the Yankees, after all.

3) Toronto Blue Jays (88-74)
I feel bad for my friends up at the Tao of Stieb. This is a team that's got a ton of talent and some really sharp young pitchers, but they're buried by the Sox/Yankees Arms Race. Put these guys in the NL Central and they'd run away with the damn thing. But stuck in the AL East, they can only think 3rd place unless the Yankees pitching implodes completely. The deal of Glaus for Rolen was basically a wash, but I think Vernon Wells will have a bounce-back season, and I expect Alex Rios to develop into a bigtime stud. Major keys for the Jays, however, include the health and effectiveness of starting pitchers AJ Burnett, Jesse Litsch and Shawn Marcum, and closer B.J. Ryan coming off elbow reconstruction. And, of course, they added David Eckstein.
He's scrappy.

4) Tampa Bay Devil Rays (77-85)
New name, new owners, new identity in Tampa. Maybe, just maybe these guys have finally turned the corner after basically being the Seattle Mariners of the current era. I figure that if the core of the team right now can remain together and mature with experience, they will be contenders within 2 or 3 seasons. I really like the group of pitchers they have right now, even with Kazmir injured, they have guys like Matt Garza, James Shields (All-Star in waiting) and Andy Sonnastine, plus #1 Draft Pick David Price on the farm. The offense still has some holes, and I have my doubts that Carlos Pena can repeat his success of last season. But the outfield of Crawford, Upton and Gomes is one of the league's best, assuming they can stay healthy and hit. I also expect Evan Longoria to ascend before long. They'll be fun to watch. Unlike...

5) Baltimore Orioles (67-95)
...These guys, who will be simply miserable all season long. Even after the Astros basically handed them most of their best pitching prospects in the asinine Miguel Tejada trade, the Orioles still went out and stupidly brought back Steve Trachsel, putting him in with Adam Loewen and the Vince Vaughn of pitchers, Daniel Cabrera, while Matt Albers is sent to the minors. They're backed up on offense by a horrible mishmash of B-level players and Melvin Mora. I swear these guys look to be about as exciting as the 1979 Mets.

AL CENTRAL
1) Cleveland Indians (93-69)
Flip a coin and either one might be right. I figure the Indians and the Tigers will duke it out all season for AL Central supremacy. I give the Indians the slightest of edges based on the depth of their pitching staff. When it counts the most, the Indians can throw a guy like Sabathia, Fausto Carmona, or Jake Westbrook at you and the Tigers don't have dependable arms like that. Plus, the Indians can throw some runs on the board too, with Grady Sizemore leading a powerful bunch that includes established guys like Victor Martinez, but also a couple of young studs in Ryan Garko and Franklin Gutierrez. They're going to take it all the way down to the wire, but I look to the Indians to win the Central again.

2) Detroit Tigers (92-70)
They basically reinvented themselves with the Cabrera/Willis deal. In Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers got, perhaps, the best young player in the game today, provided he doesn't eat himself onto the bench, or worse, the DL. Then, they stuck him in between Magglio Ordonez and Curtis Granderson. Can you say runs galore? They'll have an offense to rival the Red Sox or the Phillies, but they have a pitching staff that could easily turn games 27 different kinds of ugly. This is the kind of staff that will have Jim Leyland eating cigarettes by the pack in early June, if things don't go well. True, Verlander will lead the way, and Willis should be better than he was last year. But guys like Bonderman are erratic, Kenny Rogers is old and Nate Robertson flamed out miserably late last season. Add to that the fact that Todd Jones is still closing for them, and will continue to do so with Zumaya out until July, and you have to wonder if this team can just hit enough to offset their lousy pitching. It'll cost them in the end.

3) Minnesota Twins (83-79)
Carlos Gomez won the CF job, and I'm happy for him. I expect him to do well in the AL, but I can't say as much for the team around him. If the Twins are smart, they'll stick with an OF of Gomez, Delmon Young and Jason Kubel, and with Mauer healthy and Morneau the same, they'll have a nice top of the lineup. But without Santana leading the way, the pitching staff all of a sudden became very, very pedestrian. In addition to losing Santana, the Twins lost Carlos Silva and dealt Matt Garza for Young, so all of a sudden, the Twins are looking at Boof Bonser as their ace, followed by Philip Humber, Scott Baker, and, yes, Livan Hernandez. Sigh...

4) Chicago White Sox (78-84)
I don't really know too much about the White Sox team this year, at least not enough to write an informed description of them, except that I don't have any reason to believe that they'll be very good. Look for a few entertaining blowups from Ozzie Guillen, at the very least.

5) Kansas City Royals (68-94)
I expect that Alex Gordon will blossom a bit this year, after plodding his way through a lousy rookie season. Other youngsters David Dejesus, Billy Butler and Mark Teahen will also actually have chances to play, although I heard that Jose Guillen was the Royals most recent "Useless Veteran du Jour" to hit Royals camp. The pitching staff is still a muddled mess, although Brian Bannister showed flashes of brilliance nobody knew he had in him and Zach Greinke appears ready to turn the corner after some personal problems. They also might let stud prospect Luke Hochevar pitch in the Majors this season, but God forbid they should prevent Kyle Davies from making his scheduled start. I don't know what else to say. Just show up and hope for the best.

AL WEST
1) Seattle Mariners (87-75)
Surprised? Not me. I have the feeling that this will be the year that the pitching staff, led by Felix Hernandez, puts it all together and carries this team through the inevitable 2-month slumps from guys like Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre and Raul Ibanez. Bringing in dependable starters Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva to bolster the rotation should be enough to put them over the top in the West.

2) Anaheim Angels (85-77)
I toyed with picking the Angels by default, but I think they're easily the most overrated team in the AL. Outside of Lackey and Weaver, the pitching staff is incredibly shaky. Ervin Santana was one of two things last season: Brilliant, or horrendously miserable, with no common ground. Jon Garland enters the fold, although what he brings, I'm not quite sure. Kelvim Escobar is, of course, just another injury waiting to happen. Guys like Nick Adenhart would likely be pressed into service, though I think he's a year or two off from really being effective. The offense is pretty boring, Vladimir Guerrero and Chone Figgins aside. But everyone seems to love these guys. I guess it's because nobody thinks Seattle will be a viable competitor, and that's really the only viable competitor they've got. I still don't think they're as good as people think they are, and I think they can be had. You hear that? THEY'RE NOT WHO YOU THINK THEY ARE!!!

3) Texas Rangers (81-81)
Look, it's the American League's answer to the Cincinnati Reds!

(No, seriously, take a look at those rosters. They're carbon copies of each other, just with different names.)

4) Oakland Athletics (73-89)
I looked at the lineup the A's threw out there against the Red Sox for the game in Japan this morning before I left for work. When I don't know more than half of the names comprising a team's starting lineup, it's probably not your year.

AWARDS
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera, DET
AL Cy Young Award: John Lackey, ANA
AL Rookie of the Year: Joba Chamberlain, NYY

PLAYOFFS:
ALDS: Red Sox over Mariners (3), Indians over Yankees (4)
ALCS: Indians over Red Sox (7)

Yeah, that sounds good enough to me.

But Where Do We Go?

In November, I had read a post on Loge 13, assisted by photos from NYMDan at Mets Refugees, about the tearing down of the ramp from the 7 Train stop at Shea. I have to admit that it was rather shocking, considering not only the heavy foot traffic it had seen over the past years, but the tradition of the ramp itself. But there it was, gone, nothing left but a heap of scrap metal. That's kind of a shame. I didn't even know that my last trip over it following the last game of '07 would be my last trip over the ramp. My last trip was, needless to say, an angry, indignant stomp, rather than a victory march.

More recently, I had seen photos from NYMDan of the Walk-Up ticket booth by Gate E, a familiar meeting spot, no doubt, with its trees and benches and Newsday booth. That's pretty much gone, too. The benches and trees pulled up, the area now barren.

But it was the absence of that ramp that was digging at me. I wrote, last Opening Day, about how the crowd crush on the ramp was ridiculous. But, still, it was the best way out of Shea, and directly onto the subway platform. The crush had gotten better once the MTA had figured out the proper traffic flow, moved the turnstiles and put Express service into Manhattan after games. Then, they tore down the ramp! I was puzzled as to why they would do that now, as opposed to re-building it altogether after the 2008 season. Were we, then, supposed to cram ourselves by the dozen into the puny little sidewalk entrance onto Roosevelt Avenue?

The answer was, of course, no.

Here, again courtesy of NYMDan and Mets Refugees, we see that they are, indeed, building a new ramp from the platform to the street. But there is one thing that concerns me. And I'm sure I'm not the only one who is concerned. As of March 15th, this ramp is still pretty skeletal. Opening Day is April 8th. Less than a month away. Now, I'm not 100% sure who's in charge here, whether it's the Mets, or the MTA, as far as the ramp is concerned. It's safe to say that I'm a staunch advocate of re-designing the station altogether, and perhaps adding a second, more convenient exit to ease the bottlenecking that goes on. But they seem to only be replacing this one ramp, and at the rate they seem to be going, it might not be there by the time people start showing up. I can only imagine that I'll be sauntering into the Shea stop at 10:30AM on April 8th and stepping in wet concrete. That's if I don't walk out the door and fall directly onto Roosevelt Avenue. Hopefully, they'll work this all out. Hopefully, the ramp will be designed with a better traffic flow in mind. We'll see how this works out. I'm skeptical.

Choose the Lost Classic!

In the interest of getting back to the roots of The Ballclub, and providing some new Lost Classic games for the upcoming season, I'd like to put the decision into the hands of the loyal readers. There are a large number of games that I have in mind for some Lost Classics, but I'm not sure which ones to choose. So, let's have a vote! Which games would you like to read about? I'll offer up 4 games each from 3 separate seasons that I have somewhat fond memories of, and let you decide. The winners will, of course, have their own Lost Classic writeup. So, here goes:

1998:
Yes, I've been on a big 1998 kick lately. Perhaps because it's the 10th Anniversary. Perhaps it's because of the acquisition of Piazza. Perhaps it's something else. But here's 4 games I think are worthy of Lost Classics.

1) June 8, 1998 - Mets 3, Devil Rays 0. Rick Reed retires the 1st 20 Devil Rays in order before allowing a hit. Mike Piazza hits his 1st HR as a Met at Shea.

2) August 1, 1998 - Mets 2, Dodgers 1. Matt Franco belts a PH HR off of Jeff Shaw in the last of the 9th.

3) August 4, 1998 - Mets 7, Giants 6. Lenny Harris draws a walk-off walk in the bottom of the 10th.

4) September 16, 1998 - Mets 4, Astros 3. Mike Piazza's 9th inning HR off Wagner temporarily gives the Mets the lead, Hundley's final HR as a Met in the 11th wins it.

2004
1) May 5, 2004 - Mets 8, Giants 2. Piazza breaks the record for HRs by a Catcher.

2) July 2, 2004 - Mets 11, Yankees 2. Kaz Matsui hits 2 HRs off Mike Mussina, putting the Mets on the way to sweeping the Yankees.

3) July 15, 2004 - Mets 3, Phillies 2. Ty Wigginton gets the walk-off hit in the 11th inning.

4) September 14, 2004 - Mets 7, Braves 0. Kris Benson's finest Met moment.

1997
1) April 22, 1997 - Mets 7, Reds 2. Rick Reed's coming out party.

2) May 13, 1997 - Mets 4, Astros 3. Butch Huskey wins the game with a mammoth 7th inning HR.

3) June 3, 1997 - Mets 2, Expos 1. Bobby Jones outduels Pedro Martinez.

4) June 14, 1997 - Mets 5, Red Sox 2. Mark Clark takes a No-Hitter into the 8th inning and hits a HR.

Happy Voting, everybody!

Calculated to Prove Nothing In Particular (2008 National League Preview)

I wonder if writing a National League preview is even worth my time. If there's one thing that's been proven over the past few years, especially in the National League, it's that Parity Rules. I can make my picks to the best of my ability, and do a halfway decent job of it, but chances are I won't be anywhere close to correct.

Case in point: Last season, I picked the Mets, Cardinals, Astros and Dodgers as the NL Playoff teams. Of those 4 teams, only the Mets even had a sniff of a pennant race, and even they managed to cock it all up at the end. I laughed at the Cubs, scoffed at the D'Backs and basically treated the Colorado Rockies as if they didn't exist.

So, basically, it proves one thing: What the hell do I know?

After the season, I figured, well, you could just throw a bunch of teams in a hat, pull out some names and that would be as good a pick as any. In November, the Former El Guapo and I picked our 2008 Playoff teams.

His picks, the Mets, LA, Chicago and Philly, were pretty logical. I decided that I should pick like the NFL, and choose some obscure teams to win. So I said the Mets, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Florida.

I'm not going to stick by those picks now, but at the time, those teams seemed to be as good a pick as any.

At any rate, here's the Preview (Records are inexact and can be taken at a range of +/-5):

NL EAST
1) New York Mets (95-77)
The Mets are clearly still smarting from their collapse last season, but rather than let the bad feelings and negativity fester, the Mets went out and added a silver bullet in Johan Santana, basically tilting the power in the NL East, and likely the NL altogether back in their favor. The team still has its flaws. The Bullpen is far from perfect, and the offense is old, shaky or injury-prone at several positions. But there are certain instances where Starting Pitching, and very good starting pitching can carry a team for a large chunk of the season, and the Mets certainly boast the horses to do this. David Wright is pretty much All-World and Jose Reyes appears determined to correct his attitude problems. The questions have been addressed at various places in this blog and elsewhere. They're not going to walk away with the division like they did in 2006, and they're going to have to deal with a chippy Philadelphia team all season long. But this Mets team has come in pissed off and ready to take back what they believe was rightfully theirs. I wouldn't bet against them.

2) Philadelphia Phillies (92-70)
Once again, I'll go ahead and say Jimmy Rollins is out of his mind. He was out of his mind like a fox last season, when his cup runneth over and his preseason prediction came true. But the Phillies are nowhere close to a 100-win team. They might be a 1,000 run team, but not 100 wins. With Rollins, Utley, Howard and Burrell anchoring the offense in their piddling little bandbox of a ballpark, they will score, score and score some more. But can they pitch? Cole Hamels is clearly the ace, and for the moment, Brett Myers will be in the rotation with him, along with Adam Eaton, Jaime Moyer and Kyle Kendrick. Guys who are decent, but wholly unspectacular, and no pitcher can be guaranteed a great deal of success in Steroid Field #2. The bullpen is suspect as well. Yes, they brought in a flamethrower in Brad Lidge, but Brad Lidge, who has been susceptible to getting killed on pitches up, combined with the ballpark is likely bad news, and if he falters, the other options are Tom Gordon, who turns 50 this season, I believe, and Myers, which would leave a hole in the starting rotation.

Last season, the Phillies basically couldn't get out of their own way for most of the season. Except when they played the Mets. And when they finally got their act together, the Mets were falling apart. That won't happen again. But I think the Phillies will be able to do enough to hang around again, and although they might not top the Mets for the Division, they'll be good enough to win the Wildcard and return to the Playoffs.

3) Atlanta Braves (83-79)
The most ballyhooed offseason acquisition for the Braves involved bringing in a 41-year old pitcher whose last start involved him getting blasted for 7 runs in .1IP. They're throwing him in with another aging veteran pitcher, and an injury-prone headcase who hasn't pitched in two seasons. Then, there's Tim Hudson, who somehow turned into this generation's Bret Saberhagen, up one year, down the next.

On the other side, the offense should be only marginally exciting. Andruw Jones departs after 13 seasons, and will be replaced by Mark Kotsay, who boasts a great arm and a spotty bat. The thunder will come from Larry and Mark Teixeira, and Yunel Escobar looks like an All-Star in waiting. Francoeur and McCann will also return to round out a lineup that really doesn't jump off the page at you.

Overall, the Braves have some good individual players, and they might hang around into September, but a team can only be as good as the sum of its parts, and altogether I just don't see these parts adding up to much. They'll fade late.

4) Washington Nationals (77-85)
The Nationals open their new ballpark this year, and they will be better than last season. It will, again, be the offense that will be the strength on this team, and with Nick Johnson returning from his gruesome leg injury, there is a 1B controversy between Johnson and Dmitri Young. No longer in cavernous RFK Stadium, the Nationals ought to generate some more offense, good news for guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena. Their crowded Outfield also includes talented headcases Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. They're very young in the outfield, but old on the infield (save Zimmerman). But the pitching isn't quite there; even if John Patterson has indeed healed from injury problems that have limited him to 15 games over the past 2 seasons, they're still a few years away from seriously contending.

5) Florida Marlins (68-94)
Here we go again. After the Marlins finished strong and really kicked the Mets in the nuts at the end of last season, I thought the Marlins were a bat and a pitcher away from being a major player in the NL East. In fact, my November Wildcard pick for the NL was the Florida Marlins.

Then, they turned around and dealt Dontrelle and Miguel Cabrera for 6 prospects. So much for that thought.

The young nucleus of Willingham, Hermida, Jacobs and Uggla remain, and they will all be good. So will Cameron Maybin, if he ascends. But the pitching rotation is pretty much devoid of experienced Major League talent, and looks to consist of Josh Johnson off Elbow Reconstruction, Sweaty drunk Scott Olsen, Anibal Sanchez off a major shoulder injury, and someone out of a pool of names that includes guys like Henricus Vanden Hurk, Mark Hendrickson, Ricky Nolasco and Andrew Miller.

It's going to be a long season for the 14,000 or so fans who show up at that football stadium this Summer.

NL CENTRAL
1) Milwaukee Brewers (88-74)
The NL Central is probably the most difficult division to predict. I'll pick the Brewers here, if only because they did start strong last season, but faded late when injuries and ineffectiveness hit their pitching staff. The rotation remains mostly the same, with Sheets, Capuano and Suppan leading the way, and the bullpen did take a hit losing Cordero and replacing him with a giant question mark in Eric Gagne. They are built similar to Philadelphia, with a great offense led by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, and adding some pop with Mike Cameron will also be a boost. They'll have to peck and scratch at times, but I think they'll be able to hold off Chicago and win the Central, making their first appearance in the Postseason since 1982.

2) Chicago Cubs (87-75)
They hit an awful lot in the NL Central, but don't seem to be able to pitch much. This seems to be a recurring theme across the board. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and newcomer Kosuke Fukudome will lead this team that seemed to make the playoffs by accident last season and were swept away by Arizona. Outside of Carlos Zambrano, I don't see any pitcher who will really light anyone on fire this year, although Rich Hill could ascend and surprise a bit this season. Guys like Carlos Marmol, Sean Marshall, Jason Marquis and Jon Lieber can only stem the tide so much and it'll be difficult for the offense to carry the load when the pitching across the board is such a big question mark. They'll keep it close, and for all I know they could win, since they do boast the most talented roster in the division. But I don't think they have enough, and the Cubs will successfully manage to go 100 years without winning a World Series.

3) Houston Astros (84-78)
Offense, offense, offense, once again. Assuming Miguel Tejada isn't suspended or indicted in the whole Steroid mess, he's going to be the new anchor of this offense, taking some of the pressure off of Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee in the middle of a lineup that will score runs in bunches, but outside of Roy Oswalt really won't pitch much. I mean, who are we kidding here? Wandy Rodriguez? Brandon Backe? Woody Williams? The deal to bring in Tejada certainly helped the offense, but they dealt several talented pitching prospects to Baltimore to get him, and basically left themselves very, very thin on pitching, and this is a case of, as I am apt to say, Bad Idea Jeans.

4) St. Louis Cardinals (81-81)
Getting Chris Carpenter back after missing just about all of the 2007 season will help, but the Cardinals are still a low, leaky team outside of Albert Pujols. They're pinning an awful lot on some major question marks like Mark Mulder and Matt Clement as far as their starting rotation is concerned, and that's puzzling because it blocks guys like Adam Wainwright to really have a solid chance to show what they can do. The offense is a muddled mishmash of aging veterans and fringe prospects once you get past Pujols, and it's conceivable that opponents could exploit this to the point of embarrassment. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys.

5) Cincinnati Reds (79-83)
Wow, another team that hits and can't pitch. You could basically copy and paste the capsules I've just written for Milwaukee, Chicago or Houston and swap in the names Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion, Brandon Phillips and Ken Griffey, Jr in for the offense, and Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang and Homer Bailey in for pitchers. Guys like Norris Hopper, Jeff Keppinger and Joey Votto will also contribute heavily to the cause at the plate.

The Reds are intriguing, however, if only because they seem to have a lot of young talent. They are very much in the vein of the Nationals, with a solid mix of young, upcoming players combined with their established veterans. They also added Francisco Cordero to shore up what was a truly awful bullpen last year, ensuring that they will have a real closer, not David Weathers at the end of games. The middle relief is still suspect. But I'd look for the Reds to surprise a few people. They're still a year or two off from challenging seriously, but they've got guys who can play and could be good with a little more experience.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates (75-87)
The Pirates are, in my opinion, the only team in this division that can pitch. They've got a pair of truly unheralded, un-noticed studs at the top of their rotation in Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny, and Zach Duke is good too if he can stay healthy. But outside of Bay and Freddy Sanchez, they really can't hit at all. They're really the anomaly in the division, and given what the rest of the teams can throw at you, that's not going to work to their advantage. They have the beginnings of what could be a successful team at some point, but there are too many if-thens right now to take them seriously, and I knew that when I picked them to win the Central in November. They have a lot of hitters that are more nuisances than real threats, guys like Chris Duffy, Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche and Nyjer Morgan. But they're the kind of team that you could go to sleep on and then they'll bite you in the ass and you'll go into Pittsburgh, lose 2 of 3 and leave thinking, "How the hell did they beat us with guys like that?"

I'm intrigued by these "bottom feeders" in the NL Central if only because they're not as lousy as your typical last place teams. The Central as a whole is going to really be bunched up because of this, and, in all honesty, I'd call it any team's division right now. None of these teams would surprise me if they somehow won the Division.


NL WEST
1) Arizona Diamondbacks (93-69)
They're much more for real than I initially gave them credit for, especially now that they added Dan Haren behind Brandon Webb to lead an excellent pitching rotation. The offensive nucleus is still very young, but they've all got some pop, especially guys like Stephen Drew, Chris Young and Justin Upton, who could very well be the best of the bunch. A healthy Randy Johnson would only serve to bolster what is already perhaps the best starting rotation in the NL, mixed in with Doug Davis and Micah Owings. This is going to be a tough, tough team to play on most days, and they're easily the best team in the NL West.

2) Colorado Rockies (90-72)
Nobody thought the Rockies were going to do what they did last season. And now that they did, they're not going to sneak up on anybody this season. Teams are going to look at what they did last season, and gear up for them. True, much of the team remains, and guys like Holliday, Helton, Hawpe, Tulowitzki and Atkins are going to lead a very talented group that will score their share of runs. The pitching will also be good. I look, in particular, to guys like Ubaldo Jimemez and Franklin Morales to ascend and see some degree of success, even pitching in Colorado, to compliment Jeff Francis at the top of the rotation. But given that they rode a magical wave of success all the way down to the World Series last season when nobody thought it possible at all, they will find that it is just about impossible to do it again.

3) Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78)
Before he managed the Yankees, Casey Stengel was mostly unsuccessful as the manager of the Boston Braves and the Brooklyn Dodgers. Moving to the AL, Stengel won 10 pennants, and 7 World Championships. Then, he returned to the NL, and, even though he was managing the expansion Mets, returned to losing regularly.

Casey Stengel, meet Joe Torre. Joe, welcome back to the National League, where strategy, not brute strength, is required to win.

4) San Diego Padres (80-82)
San Diego could conceivably bounce back from being 1 strike from a playoff berth and then losing it. But they didn't really do much to change their team, which didn't hit much, and outside of Peavy wasn't particularly exciting. They seem to be banking an awful lot on Mark Prior who hasn't pitched in 2 years, I believe, and replacing Mike Cameron with Jim Edmonds isn't going to help matters. The Padres have had a nice run over the past few seasons surviving with a nucleus of talented, unheralded players that ran out there day after day and played really hard, and won. But the rest of the division has caught up with them. Without a major change, this success won't continue.

5) San Francisco Giants (63-99)
The key comes down to whether or not Alex Smith can return from his separated shoulder and prove that he is indeed an NFL-caliber QB. Otherwise, this team is left having to re-build the team that they've been re-building for 3 years already. Frank Gore can only carry so much of the load, and he clearly wore down at the end of last season. On Defense, the revamped unit played well for much of the year last season, but also suffered from the league's most vanilla offensive unit. If Smith can play well, and preserve Gore's legs, and sustain drives, thereby keeping the Defense fresh, then this team will be good for 7, perhaps 8 wins. If they can be more opportunistic on defense and work in more big plays on offense (having Martz as the new offensive coordinator will certainly help), then 9 or 10 wins and perhaps, perhaps a playoff berth is a definite possibility.

(I thought it might be more interesting to write about the 2008 San Francisco 49ers than the 2008 San Francisco Giants. Just a thought.)

AWARDS
NL MVP: Prince Fielder, MIL
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana, NYM
NL Rookie of the Year: Joey Votto, CIN

PLAYOFFS
NLDS: New York over Milwaukee, Arizona over Philadelphia
NLCS: New York over Arizona

So, there you have it. The National League in a nutshell. Now, let's go out there and play the games.

Clearing the Air

I have been getting e-mails about this from friends all day today, so I felt I should address the matter in a public statement.

It's always a little weird when someone with whom you share a name ends up receiving some sort of notoriety. I've been aware of Jon Weber, the Minor League Outfielder for several years, as he's bounced around between Oakland, LA, Arizona and now Tampa Bay. On Wednesday, some news bits began to break about Weber having a fairly decent shot, with the injury problems of Rocco Baldelli, to make the Rays as a backup Outfielder. There's a real nice story in the Bradenton Herald about Weber and his grandmother. He seems like a nice guy, even if he's never managed to make the Major Leagues in 10 seasons. He even managed to sneak his way onto a baseball card, in the 2006 Bowman set. I have the card. It can be yours, too, for the price of 40 cents.

On Thursday, Weber strengthened his chances of making the Rays when he hit his first HR of the spring off of Bartolo Colon. This was followed by a post on the DRaysBay Blog begging the question, "Who is Jon Weber?"

Most people have no idea. Many more will still have no idea, even if he makes the team.

But I just wanted to clear the air and let everyone know, it's not me. Jon Weber of the Rays is a few inches taller, a year older, a native of Lakewood, CA, and bats and throws lefty.

Jon Weber of The Ballclub, a native of New York, NY, hasn't played Baseball since High School, although he's been known to participate in a softball game every now and then. And he wasn't ever what you would consider a Major or Minor league talent. You're more likely to see him on stage than on the Ballfield (though you will often find him near a ballfield in Queens between the months of April and September). But he can switch-hit, and throws righty. And he hasn't been writing under a pseudonym for the past several years to hide his Pro Baseball Career.

I felt that this should be made clear before more people get confused. I certainly wish Jon Weber well. I hope he makes the Rays and sticks around. And if this other Jon Weber somehow has a closeted desire for Theater, well, maybe we can switch places someday.