Not For You

Once again, the 49ers went on the road for a Playoff game where they found themselves favored and justified the odds. In a game that showed the team's mental and physical toughness, the 49ers went into Charlotte and laid a full-scale smackdown on the upstart Carolina Panthers, shutting them out in the second half en route to a 23-10 victory, earning them their third consecutive trip to the NFC Championship game.

The 49ers took the field on Sunday with the look of a team still stewing over a tough defeat during the regular season; a game where the Panthers took advantage of some of the 49ers weaknesses and kind of embarrassed them on their home field. Colin Kaepernick said following the win in Green Bay that "...we owe them one..." and exacted their revenge with efficiency. The 49ers played this game looking pissed off, and nothing exemplified this more than Anquan Boldin, who continually beat the Panthers defense for clutch receptions, punctuated by emphatic screaming at whatever Carolina defender was in earshot. It might have bordered on the edge of classlessness, but it had its desired effect; Boldin, among others, was able to incite Carolina's defense into multiple personal foul penalties that helped to extend 49er drives. The 49ers played with a controlled anger, perhaps the truest sign of a veteran team that knows its capabilities and the task at hand, taking advantage of an amped-up Panthers team, the majority of which was playing in their first Postseason game.

That being said, it could have just as easily backfired. The 49ers came out early in the game with an attack that seemed to mirror their Week 10 meeting with the Panthers (or, perhaps, last week's game in Green Bay). The 49ers moved smartly down the field on their opening possession, with Kaepernick hitting Quinton Patton for a big 3rd down conversion and Frank Gore for another before Boldin rooked Mike Mitchell into an unnecessary roughness penalty, but ultimately, the drive stalled and ended in a Phil Dawson Field Goal. The 49ers got the ball back quickly, though. After Cam Newton strutted out with a pair of completions, his 3rd pass bounced off the hands of Brandon LaFell and into the arms of a diving Patrick Willis, giving the 49ers possession in Carolina territory. This drive, the 49ers managed to gain more yardage thanks to Carolina penalties than actual offense, and again ended up with a Dawson Field Goal to go up 6-0.

This wasn't an encouraging start offensively, although the 49ers seem to have made a habit all season of these slow-ish starts and settling for Field Goals. To this point, it hasn't hurt them too badly, but you wonder just how long that particular whip can be ridden. The Panthers appeared primed to make the 49ers pay for this late in the 1st Quarter. Newton led the Panthers on a drive well into San Francisco territory, aided by a long pass to Steve Smith and a few of his own runs. The Panthers ended up with a first down inside the 49ers 10 yard line, but runs by Mike Tolbert and a sneak attempt by Newton landed the ball at the 1 yard line. The Panthers, behind coach Ron Rivera, seemed to have made a name for themselves this season by going for it on 4th down, rather than taking the points, and succeeding. So, naturally, the Panthers went for it on 4th and 1. But Newton's attempted sneak was jammed at the line of scrimmage by Ahmad Brooks, and the 49ers turned away the Panthers without a score. But this indirectly led to a Panther score, as the 49ers, backed up against their own goal line, could only advance a few yards before having to Punt, and Andy Lee's fine effort was negated with Ted Ginn, Jr returned the kick to the 49ers 31-yard line, and one play later, Newton threw a strike to Smith for a Touchdown, instantly giving the Panthers the lead.

In need of a response, the 49ers only managed to move the ball to their own 40 yard line before punting it back to the Panthers, and Newton again shot the Panthers down the field with a quickness. He hit Greg Olsen for a 35-yard gain and Smith for another 10 before scrambling down to the 1 yard line, putting the Panthers right at the door again and on the precipice of opening up some distance between them and a 49ers team that seemed untracked offensively. But, again, the defense of the 49ers rose up and smacked the Panthers in the mouth, stopping Tolbert twice and registering a sack on Newton before Rivera decided this time to cut his losses and take the points, letting Graham Gano kick the Field Goal. This crucial decision gave the Panthers a 10-6 lead and would be the last points Carolina would score in the game.

Staring down the barrel of a game that was beginning to shape up all too similar to the frustrating game of Week 10, Kaepernick and the 49ers offense got their shit together and responded with a clutch, smashmouth drive that ate up the remaining time in the 1st half and got them their lead back. Kaepernick, who'd been fairly quiet since the 49ers first drive of the game, completing a pair of passes to Boldin and another to Michael Crabtree, who made a leaping grab in traffic for a 20-yard game that justified the lofty praise placed on him by his coach earlier in the week. Another quick strike to Boldin picked up even more yards and even more smack talk, as Boldin got upended by Mitchell and then immediately jumped up and got in Mitchell's face. Three plays later, the spotlight was on Boldin again, as he drew a key Pass Interference penalty on Drayton Florence. Kaepernick had attempted a fade route to the front corner of the End Zone, but Florence basically ran Boldin out of bounds rather than paying attention to the call. This set up Vernon Davis' tightrope Touchdown with 5 seconds left in the half, a beauty of a catch that was initially ruled incomplete and Davis out of bounds, in spite of the fact that Davis left some pretty obvious cleat marks in the End Zone. Jim Harbaugh threw one of his patented apoplectic shit fits, to the point where Boldin had to race over to calm him down, but replays confirmed Davis made a good catch and the 49ers went into the half leading 13-10, coming off a Touchdown drive, something they weren't able to do in Week 10.

With momentum now on their side, the 49ers charged out in the second half and pretty much wiped the Panthers out the door. The defense forced a quick 3-and-out and the offense responded with another Touchdown drive that was pretty much the backbreaker for Carolina. Boldin again carried the load, breaking off a 45-yard gain on a reception that saw him basically run right past Captain Munnerlyn for the reception, placing the 49ers inside the Panthers 5 yard line. Two plays later, they were in the end zone, courtesy of Kaepernick, who broke out the read option, ran left and was left with a clean path to the end zone when Florence completely overran him. This opened up a 10-point lead for the 49ers, which Kaepernick spread a little extra mustard on by mocking Newton's "Superman" Touchdown pose, before quickly "buttoning up" his shirt and performing this Postseason's first Kaepernicking.

The two 49ers possessions had tilted momentum solidly in their favor, and now it was up to the Panthers to face this adversity and mount a clutch comeback of their own. But the starch seemed to be completely taken out of their attack. The Panthers embarked on what would be an excruciatingly slow 8+ minute possession that didn't get very far. The 49ers defense had worn down the Panthers offensive line to the point where they could only manage to creak downfield a few yards at a time, and their 13 play drive that began at their own 24 managed to get only as far as the 49ers 29-yard line, before the line collapsed completely and Newton ended up taking sacks on consecutive plays by Brooks and Navorro Bowman, taking the Panthers out of Field Goal range and forcing them to punt back to the 49ers.

Now firmly in control, the 49ers set out to salt the game away by handing the ball to Frank Gore, who, after a mostly quiet game, bulldozed his way through the Panthers defense for, among other things, a 39-yard gain that aided in the setup for an icing Dawson Field Goal to make the score 23-10, after a drive that ate up about half the clock in the 4th Quarter while Newton stood on the sideline with a big ol' Shaun Marcum-esque puss on his face. By time the Panthers got the ball back, they were in near-impossible circumstances, and while Newton managed to matriculate them down the field, he did so with little to no sense of urgency and with 4:34 to go in the game, he sailed a pass in the vague direction of Greg Olsen that was promptly intercepted by Donte Whitner that for all intents and purposes sealed the game up. I personally do not like to act presumptuous and assume victory in situations like this, but Newton's pass was airmailed so badly and the body language of the Panthers by this point looked so defeated that with 4+ minutes remaining, I was already sending out "Seattle, here we come" text messages. And why not? The Panthers committed one more unconscionable Personal Foul penalty as their frustration bubbled over and the 49ers basically were able to run out the consequential remaining time and seal a date with the Seattle Seahawks in next Sunday's NFC Championship game.

The 49ers looked every bit like the elite team they've been portrayed as of late in winning their 8th consecutive game and 2nd consecutive Playoff Road game. Not only did they avenge their defeat to the Panthers in Week 10, but they really put Carolina in their place as a team of upstarts, not the Hot Team they might have been regarded as. True, the 49ers talked as much trash as the Panthers did, but what they didn't do was allow the trash talking to affect their actions. This is the sign of a team that can play smart from a psychological standpoint just as much as they can from a football standpoint. They haven't made dumb mistakes, committing only one turnover in their two playoff games, but more importantly, they haven't reacted to the inevitable trash talk that will fly around in any NFL Game. If anything, they exposed the Panthers as a talented, but emotionally immature team and they exploited this throughout the game on Sunday.

This mental toughness is something Jim Harbaugh has talked about for several weeks now, and now it's going to need to come out in the highest order as the 49ers will be traveling to a place that's been a bit of a house of horrors for them of late in Seattle's Boeing Alice In Chains Adderall Century Link Field to play their dear friends the Seattle Seahawks. It seems like the 49ers and Seahawks have more or less been on a collision course to meet in the NFC Championship all season, and it looks to be the game that everyone wanted to see, or at least the game anyone who likes well-played, smashmouth football between two teams that really can't stand one another but are built more or less the same. Mental toughness would serve the 49ers well against the Seahawks, who boast a multitude of shit-talkers, many of whom rank among the NFL's top talents at their positions. Moreover, the Seahawks fans, who seem well-represented in this commercial, seem to think they can control the game just as much as the players, which might be giving themselves a bit too much credit, but I digress. The recent struggles the 49ers have had at the Clink don't mean a damn thing anymore. What matters now is getting ready for the season's 3rd matchup with the Seahawks where the stakes are of a much higher order. The NFC Championship will rightfully be decided between the two teams that were the best in the Conference. That much is certain.

Nice To See You Again

The NFL Purist will always tell you that Divisional Playoff weekend is usually the best weekend of the season. The weak links have usually been disposed of in the Wildcard round, and now the league's real elite teams start to show what they're made of. Adding a little fuel to the fire is the fact that three of the four games this weekend are rematches of regular season games that drew a decent amount of hype. The fourth one isn't a rematch, but it does feature two teams that have a much-ballyhooed history of meeting up in the Playoffs (and should that not be enough to satisfy you, another one of these games is a Divisional matchup featuring two teams meeting for the third time this season). One need only look at the Quarterbacks to gauge how good the competition is at this level of the playoffs. When the "weakest" of the bunch is a former #1 overall pick who threw for over 4,000 yards as a Rookie, you know the competition is pretty stiff.

Last weekend, I went 3-1 with my predictions. Indianapolis advanced thanks to a miracle comeback after making me look rather foolish for the first half plus of their game. San Diego blew up Cincinnati's shit and made them look like chumps. I have, of course, already been through San Francisco's win in Green Bay. The only misstep I made was picking Philadelphia over New Orleans, as I underestimated the Saints relying on their running game, taking advantage of some holes in Philly's defense and keeping their quick-strike offense off the field. Well played by Sean Payton and Company, but they face a much taller order this weekend.

Saturday, 4:30pm
New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
This is the rematch of a Monday Night game that got a lot of hype as The Game that would determine who would be the #1 seed in the NFC and the Saints basically got their clock cleaned by the Seahawks and their juiced-up defense. Since then, the Seahawks have pretty much hummed along, only hiccuping against San Francisco and Arizona, while the Saints frittered away their division. The Saints, not given much of a chance last weekend in Philadelphia, shocked everyone by winning on a last-second Field Goal to win their first road game in Franchise History. Winning their second will be a tall order against a Seahawks team that has been more or less unstoppable in their little Tin Shack where everything seems to just bounce their way. Or it did until Arizona decided they'd had enough of this fuckery and hit the Seahawks back. The Seahawks can be hit back, but unfortunately, the Saints defense lacks the personnel of the Arizona Cardinals, and fortunately for the Seahawks, they don't have to worry about the Cardinals showing up because they didn't make the playoffs. Drew Brees and the Saints won against the high-powered Philly offense by basically keeping them off the field and relying on their running backs Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, and Brees made the necessary plays. This is all fine and good when you're playing the Eagles. The Seahawks are another story and playing keep-away becomes infinitely more difficult when you roll into Seattle with 60,000 screaming lunatics (plus another 130,000 piped in through the PA system) and Pete Carroll lays out the Adderall spread for his defensive backs. It won't be the massacre the last matchup was, but Seattle's defense will probably make a few plays and Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch will grind out the rest from there.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Saints 17

Saturday 8:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
The lone game that isn't a rematch of a regular season game, but this Patriots/Colts Prime Time matchup makes up for it by being a revival of one of the more hotly contested rivalries of the past decade. Though the lack of Peyton Manning in this game kind of takes a little of the juice out of the matchup, it's still a solid matchup of old rivals. Now, the AFC games seem to be more difficult to pick, and their two games are more or less crapshoots. This game, for all intents and purposes, seems to favor the Patriots. They're in their element, at home, with Tom Brady running the show and an offense that can move the ball and score points even if Brady were throwing the ball to Lucas Duda. On the other side, the Colts defense got torched by Alex Smith and the Chiefs last weekend and were only fortunate enough that Andrew Luck kept his cool and led them all the way back from 28 points down to win. Luck's performance will certainly go down in NFL Lore, and it certainly would give you the impression that no situation is too daunting for him. That being said, I tend to lean towards experience and the Hot Hand. While the Colts certainly indicated that they're no pushover, and while the Patriots have laid their fair share of home playoff stinkers over the past few years, Luck doesn't have Tom Brady's resume.
Pick: Patriots 37, Colts 30

Sunday 1:00pm
San Francisco 49ers (13-4) at Carolina Panthers (12-4)
A rematch of what's probably the hardest-hitting game of the regular season, a 10-9 slog that probably served as the 49ers most galling loss of the season. The game seemed to be a bit of a microcosm of the offensive woes that the 49ers had over a majority of the season, while also illustrating how potent Carolina's defense can be. In the game, the 49ers had three early-game drives that they couldn't finish, and settled for 3 Field Goals. In the end, these squandered opportunities allowed the 10 points Carolina was able to muster to be good enough to win the game. Since then, the Panthers rode the momentum of that victory to a First-Round bye, while the 49ers got themselves healthy, won a Wildcard and a Road Playoff game to get to this point. Healthy is the key thing here, because it really bit the 49ers in the ass in the first matchup with Carolina. Michael Crabtree wasn't active and Vernon Davis left with a concussion. Anquan Boldin was bottled up, leaving Colin Kaepernick with the option of throwing to Vance McDonald and Kyle Williams, and the result was that he spent too much time looking around a collapsing pocket before sailing doomed passes or, worse, getting sacked. The Panthers won, but that's not to say that they had much success on offense, either. Cam Newton generated only 169 yards through the air while completing only 50% of his passes, while the game's lone touchdown came on a busted run by DeAngelo Williams and the winning score came on a prayer 53-yard Field Goal by Graham Gano in the 4th Quarter.

The point is, the fact that the Panthers won the game doesn't necessarily mean that they dominated, and asking them to repeat the success they had against a 49ers team that is now healthy and really starting to click is a tall order, especially considering that a) Steve Smith, their elder statesman and top playmaker on offense is hurting and b) For a majority of this group, this is their first Playoff game. The 49ers are a playoff-toughened bunch that seems to raise their level of play the further into January they get. Colin Kaepernick came off an inconsistent regular season and really took over their Wildcard matchup in Green Bay, showing up without sleeves in 3˚ weather and making plays with his arm and his legs and looking very much like the force he posed as last January. You know, when this group was 5 yards away from winning a Championship.

Sure, the 49ers are kind of becoming the darlings of the league right now and getting quite a bit of hype, and when you take into account the 3-year run of success they're on, they've earned it. But a really good, young Panthers team is kind of getting written off a little bit, through no fault of their own. But if they want to have success in this game, they're going to have to set an early tone. The 49ers, early in the season, had a habit of starting slow. Over the final half of the regular season and last week in Green Bay, they've started off on fire offensively, moving the ball at will. The key would be if they can finish drives with Touchdowns rather than Field Goals, and extend their success through the remainder of the game. After one quarter last weekend, the 49ers looked like they were going to blow the Packers out, but only led 6-0. This happened against Carolina, too. But if the 49ers finish drives early and get Newton in a situation where he's going to have to lead the Panthers back from behind in his first career playoff game and all the emotions that entails, this game could get away from Carolina quickly. Even if the 49ers don't go ahead early, the Panthers still have to deal with an offense that's much more complete than the one they faced in November, and in the end, the health and experience of the 49ers is what's going to carry the day.
Pick: 49ers 20, Panthers 10

Sunday 4:30pm
San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
Another one I can't seem to figure out. Of course, as is usually the case when division rivals meet in the playoffs, the old "Familiarity breeds contempt" adage is in full effect. These two teams met twice in the regular season, with the road team winning both times. The SuperDuperChargers come into this game on an emotional roll, sneaking themselves into the playoffs and then beating the Bengals, while the Broncos have rode the Peyton Manning express to another 13 wins and a #1 seed. 13 wins and a #1 seed seems to be the M.O. for Manning's career, and usually it's followed up by an abject stinker in the Divisional round. Any and all logic would dictate that Manning and the Broncos would roll over the low, leaky Chargers and Philip Rivers, but Rivers has had a bit of a career rebirth under coach Mike McCoy's system and have gotten to this point in spite of no support and seemingly impossible odds. The Chargers won last weekend by running the ball down the Bengals' throats and making a number of key defensive plays, among them 4 turnovers. Logic would dictate that the Broncos won't make the same kind of mistakes that the Bengals did, but then again, stranger things have happened in the NFL. Particularly when it's the weird, Sunday 4pm Divisional Round game. The Red Flags seem to be in full view. Peyton Manning and his spotty playoff record. The Broncos shitting the bed in this same situation last year against an opportunistic Ravens team that was working under some higher mojo. A Chargers defense that's had the hot hand. Philip Rivers and his bizarre bolo tie. Peyton Manning and his Pizza. I know my head is saying to make the safe pick and take Denver, but, hey, I've got too many premonitions going on and I'm not putting any actual money on this, so what the hell. I'm going to be a hero.
Pick: Chargers 30, Broncos 27

Strange as it may seem, but after this weekend, there's only 3 meaningful games remaining in the NFL season (unless for whatever reason you are really into the Pro Bowl). If these games go as expected, you can expect some real slugfests to play out in all three of them. Don't forget to use your Clay Matthews, III deodorant after the game! Fuck the Panthers!

Arbiters of Justice

Yesterday's Hall of Fame announcement called into question once again a lot of the factors that go into the voting process. The Baseball Writer's Association, of course, is the group that has the final say as to who's in and who's out, and certainly, the three players that were voted in, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas, are all well worthy of the honor (in spite of the ill will most Mets fans harbor towards Glavine).

But once again, the argument revolves around who didn't get in, and central among the snubbed is Mike Piazza. Piazza's credentials don't need to be discussed. Neither do those for the similarly snubbed Craig Biggio or any of the others who probably should be taking their rightful place in Cooperstown's hallowed halls.

The issue obviously lies in the voting process, and how those 571 individuals choose to cast their votes. It becomes, then, a rather subjective process and a bias against certain players who might have rubbed one, or several, of those 571 the wrong way. Or, however many of those 571 that choose to vote based on some archaic principle that only makes sense to them. Invariably, we get stories like the ballot holder from Los Angeles who voted for Jack Morris—and nobody else. Of course, what ends up happening is that Craig Biggio, who should be a Hall of Famer whether you feel he's a compiler or not, falls 0.2% shy of election, and Mike Piazza falls 12.8% short.

Neither Biggio or Piazza has been specifically implicated of any wrongdoing. If anything's holding Biggio back, it's probably a general lack of splash in his career, although I do believe he is the career leader in being hit by pitches. Piazza's problem is basically guilt by association—though he's never failed a drug test and never been specifically implicated for steroid use, he's of that era so the suspicion will follow whether he's guilty or not. At this point, if you haven't gotten a smoking gun on Piazza, you're probably not going to, because there really aren't any guns left for the players of that era.

The case could certainly be made that other prominent players such as Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Mark McGwire don't deserve to be elected because there is greater evidence (or outright admission) of steroid use, and that it's their own fault that they used and their reputation therefore sullied. But it's my contention that these players were simply taking advantage of the system in place, and the fault doesn't lie on the players for doing so. Cheating in one form or another has existed in baseball forever, whether it's a pitcher loading up a baseball with vaseline or a steroid user. The fault lies with Bud Selig and the owners for allowing it to go on, because it would have been the easiest thing in the world to institute a testing system back in 1996 when the CBA was renewed. Owners tabled the issue (and the Players' Association was, I'm sure, more than happy to agree to it) in favor of allowing the players to juice up and create an offensive explosion to rekindle interest in the game. Not everybody partook, but, of course, those that did are now being treated as pariahs and more or less hung up on a cross as an example of what happens when you sully the reputation of the Grand Ole Game.

But why should they be made examples of when for all intents and purposes the behavior was encouraged?

And why, when reports and investigations have been made and released, should players that haven't been accused pay the price for the indiscretions of their peers?

The problem lies in the voting pool. The photo above is basically to illustrate what my impression is of a majority of the 571 vote-holding members of the BBWAA: Cranky Old Men who seem to believe that the true heroes of Baseball played sometime in between 1920 and 1968 and these new-era ballplayers are generally a bunch of rabble-rousers up to no damn good (To be fair, there's certainly charm to Andy Rooney but we'll just say the impression he presents is a close enough example of my point). They're not all like that; plenty of voters seem to have enough common sense to realize that every player is more or less a product of the era that they played, and if guys like Bonds et. al, are the best of the steroid era, then so be it. Many of them also probably also feel as though there are too many Andy Rooneys in a pool that holds too few Dan LeBatards, and so their only hope to affect a change in the system is to simply make a mockery of it.

The problem is that there's no good solution. Opening up the balloting to a larger pool, say, broadcasters, ends up creating even more subjectivity and probably a good deal of homerism. Revoking balloting rights probably wouldn't ever happen lest the BBWAA wants to have soiled Depends thrown at them. Perhaps opening up the vote to living Hall of Fame members is a possibility. I don't know. But unless some kind of change is made, you're going to have guys blacklisted from taking their worthy place in the Hall of Fame for no other reason than they had the poor fortune of playing in a certain era.

Cold Heart

Although the temperature wasn't as historically cold as people expected, it was still pretty cold in Green Bay on Sunday, at 3˚ with a wind chill of -14˚. This mattered very little to the 49ers, who stormed out behind their hearty, sleeveless Quarterback Colin Kaepernick and beat the Green Bay Packers 23-20 to advance to the Divisional round of the NFC Playoffs. In spite of the cold, and in spite of playing on a gnarly looking "frozen tundra" that appeared to be comprised of either dead grass or painted dirt, the 49ers played mostly unfazed and stood toe-to-toe with the Packers, ultimately prevailing on Phil Dawson's last-second Field Goal.

It's Kaepernick who's drawing all the attention after this game, and deservedly so, since it was his 227 passing yards and 98 rushing yards that served as The Difference in the game. Kaepernick did what he tends to do in situations like this: raise his game to the magnitude of the moment. Stating after the game that "It ain't that cold, it's all mental," Kaepernick once again proved himself too difficult for the Packers to stop and although he might not have lit them on fire like he usually does, he still outplayed Aaron Rodgers and made several clutch plays in key moments to set up the 49ers to win.

That being said, Rodgers has to get some credit for simply dragging the Packers back into the game, because early on, it looked like the 49ers were going to run them out of their own building. After forcing a Green Bay punt on the opening possession, the 49ers raced down the field, with Kaepernick and Michael Crabtree hooking up for a majority of the yardage, including a 31-yard catch on a 4th down play that set up a Dawson Field Goal. The Packers did nothing on their ensuing possession, again going 3-and-out, aided by a sack split between Ahmad Brooks and Aldon Smith. The 49ers took advantage of a bad punt by Tom Masthay and began their second possession in Packers' territory. And again, they drove down inside the Packers' 10-yard line, this time with Anquan Boldin picking up the key yards. But again, the drive stalled and resulted in another Field Goal. This, annoyingly, had been a problem all season, and I was concerned that settling for Field Goals when for all intents and purposes the 49ers had completely dominated the game and shown themselves to be playing on a completely different level than the Packers. But these things change quickly in the NFL, and all it can take is one play sometimes to turn the tide.

The Packers eventually did get their break, but only after a 3rd drive that saw Rodgers get sacked and the Packers go 3-and-out. The 49ers began another march down the field and appeared primed to score again, until Kaepernick made what was really his only bad throw of the game, an underthrown pass to Vernon Davis, who'd broken free near the Packers' 10 yard line, that was intercepted by Tramon Williams. This stopped the 49ers and energized the Packers and Rodgers, who methodically moved down the field in a mostly no-huddle attack comprised around short passes and runs by Eddie Lacy. The 14 play drive culminated in a Touchdown pass from Rodgers to Jordy Nelson that was nearly knocked down by Tarell Brown. But Brown whiffed and out of nowhere the Packers had the lead and served notice that this game wasn't going to be anything close to the cakewalk it had started out looking like.

That being said, for every time the Packers forged downfield for a score that gave them the lead, the 49ers always found a way to come up with the clutch response. Naturally, it was Kaepernick who made the big play, this time using his legs and simply outrunning a majority of the Green Bay defense. It wasn't a designed run—and it's easy to overlook that many of his runs against the Packers aren't designed—but nonetheless, he took advantage of the Packers defense playing man coverage and not leaving a defender to spy on him and took off, racing around the left end and not stopping until he'd made it all the way down to the Packers' 13-yard line. The 42-yard run set up Frank Gore to plow through the middle and score on a 10-yard run two plays later as the 49ers regained the lead 13-7. On their ensuing possession, the Packers drove down quickly to kick a Field Goal as time expired in the half.

The intensity kicked up significantly in the second half. Neither team did much in the way of offense in the 3rd Quarter. The 49ers kicked off the half by burning a Time Out before running their first play. This set a negative tone as the 49ers had the ball 3 times in the Quarter and punted all 3 times. They did manage to move the ball their second possession, as Kaepernick hit Crabtree again for a big gain, but two plays later, Kaepernick took an ugly sack from Nick Perry, who took it upon himself to flex his muscles (in the absence of Semi-talented Commercial Actor and rumored Football Player Clay Matthews, III, I guess Perry had to compensate for idiot Packer behavior) and style after doing so. Fortunately, the 49ers defense was just as hearty; the Packers generated very little themselves, and one drive saw the 49ers sack Rodgers on back-to-back plays, courtesy of Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks.

It wasn't until the 4th Quarter that someone finally broke through. Unfortunately, it was the Packers. Rodgers had begun to heat up again late in the 3rd Quarter, and with the Packers facing a 4th Down at the San Francisco 30 yard line, their coach, Mike McCarthy, eschewed the tying Field Goal in favor of going for the jugular. This nearly blew up in his face, as Ray McDonald appeared to have Rodgers grasped for a sack. But somehow, Rodgers managed to keep his feet, break the tackle and escape long enough to loft a miracle pass to Randall Cobb, who landed inside the 49ers 10-yard line. This, then, would be the kind of play that showed Rodgers' greatness at work, and could easily have been a backbreaker for the 49ers, particularly when John Kuhn plunged in for a Touchdown a few plays later that gave the Packers a 17-13 lead.

Potentially backbreaking, yes, but fortunately, not actually backbreaking for the 49ers. After seemingly losing all momentum, the 49ers just went out and grabbed it right back, thanks once again to Colin Kaepernick, with assists from Vernon Davis and LaMichael James. It was James, who shined as a return man and change-of-pace back last Postseason, who kicked things off with a long Kickoff return that gave the 49ers good Field Position. Then, it was Kaepernick, doing it with his legs again and taking off on another busted play for a 24-yard gain, moving the ball well inside Packer territory. One play later, Kaepernick whistled one of his bullet passes over the middle of the field to Davis, who caught the ball in between a pair of defenders and landed in the End Zone for a Touchdown that gave the 49ers the lead right back. Once again, when they were absolutely in need of the score, the 49ers went out and got it.

It was clear, at this point, that this game was going to continue to go back and forth, and it would be decided either by the team that had the ball last, or the team that made a mistake. The Packers took the ball and embarked on a good drive that appeared primed to end in the End Zone once again, but the 49ers defense stopped them cold inside the 10. Mason Crosby's Field Goal tied the game 20-20 with 5:06 to play. So, that gave the 49ers a pretty easy task: Take the ball, move down the field, run down the clock, score and get the hell out of there.

Of course, it's never that easy.

Kaepernick opened the drive by hitting Crabtree for 11 yards. Two plays later, a touch pass intended for Davis nearly ended in Disaster as Micah Hyde got his hands on the pass, but was unable to intercept it, which was fortunate, because he had nothing in front of him but open field. Faced with a 3rd down on the ensuing play, Kaepernick went back to his old reliable target, Michael Crabtree, for 17 yards and a 1st Down. Crabtree, who's made a name for himself as a top-flight route-runner with outstanding hands, showed in this game just how much the 49ers missed having him in the lineup over the early part of the season. For the game, Crabtree had 8 catches for 125 yards, which obviously was his best output of the season, and he couldn't have picked a better time to do it. Kaepernick has relied on him on 3rd down continuously, just as Alex Smith did before him, and here as the 49ers were trying to move towards a victory, Crabtree came up big once again.

But there was still more ground to gain, and a few plays later, the 49ers found themselves in another 3rd and long situation, this time at the Green Bay 38 yard line. Certainly, a pass was the call, and certainly, Crabtree would be the preferred target. But if it didn't work, it was certainly too far away for Phil Dawson to be counted on to kick the Field Goal, and with just over a minute to play, too much time to just hand the ball back to Aaron Rodgers. Kaepernick dropped back to pass and the Packers came with a blitz. But in their zeal to get to Kaepernick, the Packers overpursued him, allowing Kap to race around the corner and pick up those key 8 yards and then a few more, moving the ball closer, and allowing the 49ers to run the clock down even further behind some Frank Gore runs, setting up Phil Dawson to kick home a 33-yard Field Goal and send the 49ers on to play the Carolina Panthers next weekend.

Naturally, the mood after the game was that the team immediately wanted to run in and get out of the cold. Ultimately, the better team won the game, although it wasn't the 49ers cleanest effort. Certainly, the weather was a factor, but habits that have annoyingly formed over the course of the season showed themselves, particularly early when the 49ers couldn't finish off their drives. Unlike in prior games, this wasn't a product of play calling. Kaepernick was afforded the ability to score with his arm in these situations on Sunday, but the receivers weren't there for him, and a lane for him to run didn't exist. Clock management was also a problem, as the 49ers burned two Timeouts in the 1st Quarter, and two more halfway into the 3rd Quarter. These didn't come back to hurt them, but under different circumstances, perhaps it could have. And for all that went wrong, or could have gone wrong, there was still plenty of good. The Defense got off to a flying start, stuffing the Packers run game and not allowing Rodgers to complete a pass until the 2nd Quarter. And when the Packers did get going, the defense bent, but didn't break. Eddie Lacy and James Starks never found consistent holes in the defense for big runs, Navorro Bowman, Patrick Willis and Company kept holding them to short gains. And for all his heroics, Aaron Rodgers only mustered 177 yards passing on the day, and the 49ers managed to keep constant pressure on him. Offensively, of course Kaepernick and Crabtree were the stars, but Frank Gore also chimed in with 66 tough yards and a Touchdown. Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin didn't light it up, but they made their catches count, and overall, the offensive line did their usual stellar job of creating lanes and protecting the Quarterback.

So, once again, the 49ers have disposed of the Packers. The Packers can't get over their Colin Kaepernick Problem and so for the second year in a row, the 49ers have Discount Doublechecked them into the offseason. This makes Kaepernick 3-0 against the Packers and each time, he's managed to confound them and make absolutely every play necessary. This also would be the 4th Postseason game in which Kaepernick has really elevated his game, and having now done this over two seasons, will begin to give Kap the reputation of being a Big Game Quarterback. He's now won two Road Playoff games, so the venue doesn't matter to him. The weather probably won't be as much of a factor next weekend as the 49ers journey down to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers in a rematch of what was probably their most frustrating game of the season, a 10-9 loss at Home in Week 10 that saw the 49ers unable to do much of anything on offense. At the time, the 49ers didn't have Crabtree and Davis was lost during the game with a concussion. The Panthers sacked Kaepernick 6 times and really manhandled them in the process. This isn't lost on the 49ers. After the game, when asked about playing the Panthers, Kap said that his only thought is "...that we owe them one for what they did at our house."

People kept saying that the 49ers and Packers are vastly different than they were in Week 1. The 49ers and Panthers are vastly different than they were in Week 10, too. I wouldn't expect the same result next Sunday.

Return To The Big Time

The NFL season is basically a blur. The NFL Playoffs are anything but. Even though there's still the same amount of time in between games, it often can feel like weeks before they take the field. I've know that the 49ers would be in the Playoffs for some time; it was more or less a foregone conclusion that they'd be there somehow, even when they looked their worst. But here they are, and along with 7 other teams, they begin the chase for the Big Game this weekend, while the Big Boys get to sit back and watch these teams beat each other up in what appears to be a series of bone-chilling affairs, culminating in what's shaping up to be the bone-chillingest of them all on Sunday afternoon in Green Bay. Here now, my picks for the weekend:

Saturday, 4:30pm
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
The Chiefs and Colts basically both made it to this point without much drama. The Chiefs did it by fattening up on a pillow-soft schedule early, racing out to a 9-0 start before coming back to earth down the latter half of the season. The Colts got off to a hot start, cooled off over the middle of the season after Reggie Wayne got hurt, and then retooled themselves to finish strong. The Colts can also boast to having beaten Denver, San Francisco and Seattle, all of whom are among the top teams in the league. The Chiefs have ridden the recipe of Alex Smith's smarts and Jamaal Charles' power running, and a tough defense that ranked among the tops in the league. But their schedule has dogged them and few believe they're as good as their record might indicate. The Colts, on the other hand, have Andrew Luck and are well served by a breakout season by T.Y. Hilton. Their running game is presumed to be weak because Trent Richardson is a colossal dud, but Donald Brown is kind of a sneaky-dangerous all purpose back. I picked the Colts to win last year in Baltimore but they weren't quite there yet. This year, I think they're ready for a deeper playoff run.
Pick: Colts 24, Chiefs 17

Saturday, 8:00pm
New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
One of those games that confounds people. By all accounts, the Saints should probably wipe the floor with Philadelphia. They're easily the better team, Drew Brees is on top of his game and all their pieces are in place. And yet whenever they go on the road in the playoffs, no matter how good they look, they have this tendency to turn to mush. The Seahawks did it to them in 2010, the 49ers did it to them in 2011, and now here they are, going to Philadelphia in this weekend's Cold Game #1, to face the Eagles, NickFolean Dynamite and their Blur Offense that, once it got going, really propelled the Eagles to this point. True, the Eagles sort of happened into winning the NFC East primarily because nobody else wanted to win the Division, but digging a little deeper reveals the fact that the Eagles have the best Running Back in the NFL right now in LeSean McCoy and a Quarterback in Nick Foles who does not make mistakes. It would be up to the Saints Defense, which has been better this year than in prior years, to try to force a few turnovers if they want to tilt things in their favor, but I don't know if that's going to be in the cards given how smartly Foles has played of late. More than likely, this game is going to dissolve into a shootout between the high-powered Saints and the high-paced Eagles, and in a track meet in the cold, the circumstances seem to favor the Eagles.
Pick: Eagles 44, Saints 38

Sunday, 1:00pm
San Diego Chargers (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
I waffled the most on this game. For whatever reason, I want to pick the Bengals. Not simply because they haven't won a playoff game since 1990, or because they had a decided advantage at home this season, where they've been 8-0, or because they've got this nice underdog spirit behind Andy Dalton and A.J. Green, and a good defense. They just seem like it's their time. And yet I can't seem to shake the idea that this is just a setup for Philip Rivers to come roaring in, slinging some weird sidearm passes around to guys like Keenan Allen and Seyi Ajirotutu and Antonio Gates and just giving the Cincinnati fans one more giant shitburger to carry them into the Winter. This is Cold Game #2, and a rematch of the legendary Freezer Bowl back in the 1981 postseason, where the enduring image is of poor Dan Fouts fluttering passes into a deathly wind with icicles hanging off his beard. You think Philip Rivers is the kind of guy who gives a crap about the cold? Yeah, me neither.
Pick: Chargers 24, Bengals 20

Sunday, 4:30pm
San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
But, of course, all these games are mere appetizers to my main course in the late game Sunday. Did you know that "The Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field" is really a myth? Legendary voice of NFL Films John Facenda never actually said it. It's really just a Bermanism. Plus, it's redundant, because all Tundras are, by nature, frozen. So let's just get past all this Lambeau Field mystique crap and get to the point: It's going to be Really Fucking Cold in Green Bay on Sunday, because that's what happens in Green Bay in January. And while we're on the subject of Packer Brown-nosing, I watched NFL Network's excellent "A Football Life" series this week, where they devoted two hour-long programs to Vince Laaahm-Baaaa-Di. I know his name is synonymous with NFL royalty and I'm supposed to cream my pants at the mention of his name and the Packer Sweep, but after watching this program, I'm basically convinced that if Willy Loman were an NFL Coach, he'd be Vince Laaahm-Baaaa-Di.

Yes, it's a long-winded way of saying that I don't care for the Packers much. The Packers come into this game as the ultimate rags-to-riches tale, having lost Quarterback Aaron Rodgers to injury, suffering through weeks of losing and the indignation of a Tie Game, only to have the remainder of their division fall apart around them and Rodgers to come back and lead them to the Miracle Victory for the Ages last Sunday in Chicago. Rodgers is back, Rodgers is hot, and here we go. They get this game in their stadium, in their weather and under their circumstances.

That being said, they can't beat the 49ers. For as great as Aaron Rodgers is, he's not able to carry the entire game on his back, and the 49ers are just a better put-together team than the Packers are. San Francisco comes into this game having kind of quietly put together a 6-game winning streak, to say nothing of the fact that a majority of this roster is still kind of quietly steaming over their loss last February. Also of note is that in two previous meetings, Colin Kaepernick has completely shredded the Packers. Last year, he did it with his legs. So the Packers muscled up and sold out to stop him from running. The result was that in Week 1 this season, Kaepernick shredded them with his arm, and this was when his receiving corps consisted of Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and Me. Now, he's got a full arsenal at his disposal, while Green Bay's defense hasn't improved much over the course of the season. On the other side, while Rodgers may have saved the Packers' asses last week at the end, he didn't look great for a majority of the game, and their run game may suffer with Eddie Lacy ailing. The Packers and Rodgers took advantage of an awful Bears defense last weekend. The 49ers defense, who incidentally went the entire season without allowing a 100-yard rusher, is significantly better than the Bears defense, and I don't think I need to go into the sordid details.

Then, there's the weather. I know everyone wants to say "Ooooooooh, Packers Weather!" etc, etc, and yeah, to a certain extent that may be true. But once you start getting into temperatures in the single digits or below zero, the weather will affect you whether you're used to it or not. So for anyone who wants to make a stink about the delicate 49ers playing in the harsh cold, well, the Packers have to play in it too, and I don't believe they played in any games this season where the game time temperature was 3˚ with a forecast low of -20˚. So throw the weather theories out the window, because it's going to suck for both sides. This game comes down to talent and mental toughness, and the 49ers have the Packers beat on both counts.
Pick: 49ers 33, Packers 20

What, you're surprised? Go enjoy the games! Have a Blast! Eat some Peyton Manning Pizza! Fuck the Packers!