It's been a few years since I did team preview capsules, but with the season now less than a week away, and within the past few days I've partaken in a) an NL-only Fantasy Baseball Draft and b) a trip to Queens that took me past Citi Field coming and going, I figured it's time I get things cracking and get ready for the season. And, what better way than to preview the National League, or, more appropriately, the Mets and 14 other teams I either don't like or don't pay attention to unless they have someone on my fantasy team. I'll keep this as rapid fire as possible. All records are simply an approximation and anything plus or minus 5 wins can be construed as a good job of understanding baseball on my part. So here we go.
NL EAST
1) Washington Nationals (100-62)
They won the division last year handily without a month of Bryce Harper at the beginning and without a month of Stephen Strasburg at the end, and then it all got submarined when their normally reliable bullpen and, particularly, their normally reliable closer Drew Storen flamed out in the 9th inning of the deciding game of the NLDS against St. Louis. Fortunately (or unfortunately, in Storen's case), the Nationals have plenty of other good bullpen arms around in case he's got a hangover. Offensively, not gangbusters, but with the boatload of pitching old friend Davey Johnson has in his arsenal, they don't have to hit a ton to win. Class of the division.
2) Atlanta Braves (87-75)
They're kind of a chic pick right now. It's easy to buy into the Braves, because after shitting the bed in the Wildcard play-in game last year, they went out and made several improvements, most notably bringing in both Upton brothers, giving them an outfield that has the potential to be both wildly talented and incredibly mercurial. Their hype machine has also managed to make everyone believe that Andrelton Simmons is the second coming of Barry Larkin when he's a little closer to being the second coming of Rey Ordonez. They'll win more than they'll lose, but from where I'm sitting, the rotation is kind of thin and while their bullpen is great, a closer look at Craig Kimbrel reveals a dominant pitcher with a mild case of Armando Benitez. They'll contend for one of the Wildcard Game spots, but no more than that.
3) Philadelphia Phillies (84-78)
Let's face it. The Phillies are getting old. Roy Halladay started to break down last year and Cliff Lee was middling, leaving Cole Hamels as the de facto Ace. After missing half the season with injuries, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard both struggled to find their prior form, and with the team going nowhere at the trade deadline, several pieces were traded away. Offseason trades to bring in Ben Revere from Minnesota and Michael Young from Texas are intriguing but there's too many holes in the pitching staff to make up for it. Unless somehow Halladay and Lee turn back the clock to 2010.
4) New York Mets (76-86)
I'll spend a lot of time this season talking about it, but 2013 for the Mets is not about 2013. It's about what might happen going forward. And as such, they're not going to be very good this year. The Mets this season are going to be about working through the development of players like Matt Harvey, Ruben Tejada and, eventually, Zack Wheeler and Travis d'Arnaud. That said, they'll also be hoping that someone sticks in the outfield and the remainder of the pitching staff doesn't embarrass themselves in the process.
5) Miami Marlins (58-104)
The sell-off that I predicted would happen came much quicker than I thought. It wasn't even halfway through last season that they started trading away their stars, and come the offseason, just about anybody making any kind of money was traded to Toronto. The end result is that the Marlins are pretty much right what they deserve to be: A pissed-off Giancarlo Stanton, a pissed-off Ricky Nolasco, and 23 other players mostly devoid of Major League talent. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people. Jerkoffs.
NL CENTRAL
1) Cincinnati Reds (95-67)
Whether or not Aroldis Chapman starts or closes is academic. The Reds are a good, deep team that has offense to burn. The ascension of Todd Frazier last season to take over for Scott Rolen at 3rd Base and the acquisition of Shin-Soo Choo in the Outfield to go with already established stars like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce fill out a lineup that doesn't have very many holes and a big chip on their shoulder from a couple of early playoff exits. This could be the year they step forward.
2) St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)
The Cardinals are like one of those Super Mario Bros bosses that you have to keep jumping on and shooting at before you can kill them. No matter how many times they're counted out or left for dead, they somehow manage to put another stupid run together and draw a lot of gushing, overblown praise over what a gutty team of winners they are. I'm completely sick of them, but unfortunately, even though they lost Obi Wan LaRussa and Albert Pujols, they still won, and that team is pretty much still intact, so unless something goes horribly wrong, they'll be right back in the Wildcard Game and they'll probably catch another stupid break somewhere along the way.
3) Pittsburgh Pirates (83-79)
They're not quite there yet, but this is going to be the season that the Pirates finally break their 20-year losing streak. Although their prospect-hoarding methods have foiled them before, they finally seem to have a couple of breakout stars in Andrew McCutchen (perhaps the best player in Baseball that nobody really knows about) and Pedro Alvarez (struck out a ton but did hit 30 HRs), and they've spent a little money to bring in some veteran presence with winning attitudes as opposed to retreads that nobody else wanted. The pitching is somewhat iffy on the back end of their rotation, but if James McDonald can dial it back to the first half of last season, that'll help, and #1 pick Gerrit Cole is about ready to contribute. They're not going to make The Leap just yet, but they'll turn the corner this year.
4) Milwaukee Brewers (80-82)
I find the Brewers painfully boring. Ryan Braun can carry them only so far, and an aging Aramis Ramirez coupled with Corey Hart's carcass and Rickie Weeks' unpredictability doesn't lend itself to much success, even if Carlos Gomez somehow managed to turn into a reasonably productive player. Pitching is a similar story for the Brews. Yovani Gallardo can be great, the problem is he's never consistently great, and the rest of the rotation lacks anything resembling a sexy name.
5) Chicago Cubs (70-92)
Those of us in Metville can take some solace in the train wreck that the Cubs have become, because it happened to them just as quickly as it happened to the Mets. The Cubs went from back-to-back Division Titles in 2007 and 2008 to starting Jeff Samardzija on Opening Day as the headliner of a rotation that includes oft-injured Matt Garza and retreads Edwin Jackson, Travis Wood and Scott Baker, and nobody in particular to save their hide when they inevitably fall flat. There's some interesting names on the offensive side, but before you get too excited, remember that Alfonso Soriano is one of those interesting names.
6) Houston Astros (63-99)
The Astros have become so putrid these past few seasons that it's easy to forget they even exist, particularly since they only play the Mets 6 times a...wait...what? They moved to the American League? Well, shit. Never mind then.
NL WEST
1) San Francisco Giants (93-69)
The Giants have this every-other-year thing going, being that they've won a World Series Championship twice in the past 3 years in spite of the fact that they've been counted out because of a rather unexciting lineup. But, undaunted, they've leaned heavily on a pitching staff that's basically peerless when measured alongside the rest of the National League, and that's even considering that their best pitcher, Tim Lincecum, had an awful year last year and is currently regarded as reclamation project rather than Ace. They capped their season by stopping the pesky Cardinals and the powerful Tigers dead in their tracks and for the most part kept that unit together. They'll be tough to beat.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers (91-71)
The Dodgers spending spree has filled their lineup with some very sexy names, but how often do we see these superteams fail to gel and ultimately fall apart? I'm not of the belief that this will happen to the Dodgers in the same style of, say, the 2012 Miami Marlins, but I also don't think that they've clearly made themselves the favorite. They've already lost one player they were relying on for 2 months in Hanley Ramirez, and they're also banking on three members of the FriedChickenGate Red Sox to carry some of that load. But, that said, they also boast the odds-on MVP in Matt Kemp and the odds-on Cy Young Favorite in Clayton Kershaw. That'll count for something.
3) Arizona Diamondbacks (80-82)
The Diamondbacks are the perfect example of a team stuck in neutral. They have some reasonably talented players and can generate both offense and pitching, but their roster, top to bottom, isn't so talent-laden that they'll be anything more than a nuisance for teams that they play a lot.
4) Colorado Rockies (74-88)
The highlight of the Rockies season in 2012 was when they came into New York in August boasting a record of 46-73 and a mostly minor-league lineup, and swept a 4-game series where the Mets looked so embarrassing, it drove Mike Francesa, who doesn't even root for the Mets, to a 10-minute screaming meltdown.
5) San Diego Padres (71-91)
I heard they were pulling the fences in at Petco Park, much like they did at Citi Field, in order to generate some more offense. Unfortunately, Chase Headley, who poses to be the Padres' version of David Wright, appears likely to miss about a month with an injury of some sort, and I'm not so sure I can really remember who else is on their roster, I feel like they have Edinson Volquez, and guys like Cameron Maybin and Yonder Alonso are up-and-comers, but for every one of those players, there's 2 retreads that won't help much. Conveniently, they play the Mets in next Monday's opener so I'll familiarize myself with them slightly better at that point.
AWARDS
NL MVP: Joey Votto, Reds
NL CY YOUNG: Matt Cain, Giants
NL ROY: Zack Wheeler, Mets (He'll be in the Majors around May 1st)
PLAYOFFS
NL Wildcard Game: Dodgers over Cardinals
NLDS: Nationals over Dodgers, Reds over Giants
NLCS: Reds over Nationals
I'll get around to the AL before Opening Day. I promise.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Spring Training for Bloggers
There are several things I've done in the past, for example picking 5 Key Mets and naming the All Ballclub Team, which I haven't done this year. I tended to think of Key Mets in the sense of the success of the team really hinging on their own personal success. Though I hate to admit defeat, I just don't think the Mets are going to be especially successful, at least from a win-loss standpoint. No few players playing better or worse than hoped will swing the fortunes of the team at all, at least not this year. But this isn't a rebuilding year. The rebuilding has already been done, for the most part. This is now an evaluational year, just to see what the hell the Mets have going forward.
I suspect I'll be complaining an awful lot about how the Mets don't hit this season. I don't think that's much of a surprise to anyone. Though David Wright has been tearing up the World Baseball Classic, who's to say this will translate to regular season success (Though Beltran in '06 comes to mind)? If anything, the WBC has just reminded us how good Wright can be when he has a stocked lineup around him. It's nice being able to hit in between Ryan Braun and Eric Hosmer. That'd help any hitter. But most of us are more concerned with how he'll hit in between Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy or Ruben Tejada or Colin Cowgill or whoever ends up hitting 2nd. What kind of a start will Ike Davis get off to? What kind of a start will Daniel Murphy get off to? Will Lucas Duda get started at all?
The Outfield is frightening. I haven't seen a ton of Spring Games, but other than the fact that Lucas Duda appears to have borrowed Zach Galifinakis' beard, I don't think anybody has done anything of note. Colin Cowgill has shown some spunk, and I guess he'll start, but I'm not sure if it's because he's decent or because he's just better than Nieuwenhuis, Baxter, Byrd, Valdespin or whoever else is out there. This is a group that has all the makings of submarining rallies and innings all season long and making me want to bash my head into the counter at Blue Smoke.
The Pitching, particularly the starters, actually look good. Unfortunately, they'll probably fall victim to my favorite types of games, the 3-1 losses where the Mets get 8 hits, hit into 3 Double Plays and in at least one instance, they will have the tying runs in scoring position with under 2 outs and won't score a run. Niese and Gee have looked good, and Shaun Marcum was a signing I really liked, because he's better than you think if he's healthy (see: Capuano, Chris, 2011). Then, there's Matt Harvey, who's beginning to inspire the kind of superlatives that would merit his own blog. The conventional wisdom is that, with Santana unavailable on Opening Day, Jon Niese would get the start. But I'd strongly consider giving the ball to Harvey that day. He's clearly up to the assignment and it would make quite a statement as to the direction this team is going. If he doesn't, I'm inclined to believe that this is the last year for a while where he's not the Opening Day Starter.
There's a bullpen here too, but I don't want to talk about it.
The Mets as a whole are still a ways from contending, and even the heartiest of optimists would have to agree. But whether contention comes in 2014 or 2016 depends on what happens after this year, and isn't something I think we should be worrying about right now. Optimism for a Mets fan in 2013 has to be looking at Matt Harvey, and then seeing players like Zach Wheeler and Travis d'Arnaud about to ascend because if they're as good as advertised, then success should follow. That's about as optimistic as I can get, though, at least for right now, because everything hinges on a futures market. This is somewhat frustrating, rooting for a large market team that's been embarrassingly bad for several years now. But, you try to make the best of what's available, and right now, this is what's available.
Monday, February 11, 2013
50 Years in Cards: The Future
What makes it interesting: The period of time between 1978 and 1982 has been mostly known as the Black Hole of Mets Baseball. There hasn't been much debate about it being the worst era in Mets History. That period of time was so hopeless that the Mets often closed the Upper Deck at Shea Stadium because it just wasn't worth it.
The period of time between 2009 and the present day could rival that era as far as dreariness and hopelessness. The Mets opened a brand new ballpark and immediately fell flat on their faces, as ownership and management bumbled their way through an endless string of injuries and financial issues. They never did close the Promenade Level at Citi Field, although there were multiple occasions where they probably wouldn't have been blamed for doing so (rather than shutter the level completely, they often simply shuttered the concession stands and let fans sit there and starve). I'm restating the obvious, but it's been a difficult few years to be a Mets fan. It's gotten to the point where the high hopes of Opening Day have basically been non-existent; everyone knows that the best the Mets can hope for in 2013 is probably a .500 record and a 4th place finish.
Yet with Spring Training officially underway for 2013 today, I can't help but feel somewhat optimistic about the Mets. Not because of the present, but because of the future. Much like the down years of the late 70s and early 80s gave way to a run of success, it's not outlandish to believe that these Mets are on a similar course. The Mets won't turn any corners in 2013, and I don't think anyone believes otherwise. But a number of calculated trades and high draft picks are beginning to take over the team, and the Mets are banking on them to lead the Mets back to respectability. Travis d'Arnaud is one such prospect. Though the Mets acquired d'Arnaud in a mostly unpopular trade for R.A. Dickey, the motives of the trade couldn't be questioned. The Mets, in 2013, will still be shedding some bad contracts and dead weight. R.A. Dickey, though an undeniable Fan Favorite, was also unfortunately the Mets most marketable commodity: A Cy Young Award winner at the top of his game. The Mets could have kept Dickey, but it wouldn't have done them any good in 2013. Dickey won 20 games in 2012, but that didn't translate to team-wide success. Instead, he helped the Mets by proving himself valuable enough for the Blue Jays to part with d'Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard, another prospect who, though still a couple of years off, also holds a bit of upside.
d'Arnaud, to this point, has only distinguished himself by twice being dealt for Cy Young winners. A 2007 draft pick of the Phillies, d'Arnaud went to Toronto in the Roy Halladay trade in 2010. He's had multiple seasons derailed by injuries, but when healthy, he's managed to hit for both average and power, and proven himself a capable Catcher. This has been enough for MLB.com to name him the #6 prospect in Baseball. It has been enough for d'Arnaud's arrival in Port St. Lucie to be met with more than just a little fanfare. It's not what may happen this year that has fans excited. It's what's about to happen. It's the feeling that after so many lousy years, the Mets may finally be ready to turn the corner. The era of Jason Bays, Manny Acostas, Pat Mischs and Josh Tholes are done. The era of go-nowhere kids like Jeremy Hefner and Collin McHugh are going. It will be players like d'Arnaud, along with Zach Wheeler, Matt Harvey and Syndergaard who hold the future for the Mets.
Though d'Arnaud may not begin the season with the Mets, he's probably going to be in New York before too long. What happens from there is anyone's guess. But if the calculated gamble Sandy Alderson took in acquiring him pays off, he should be here for quite some time. It may not work, but for now, it's something worth getting a little excited about. Optimism isn't a feeling that's existed for the Mets in several years.
Card back:
Monday, February 4, 2013
Dream On
I don't know, for the non-football audience, if there's an equivalent Mets loss that can compare to this. Maybe Game 6 in Atlanta in 1999 is close, but it's impossible to compare Baseball and Football, and I'm too much of a carcass to attempt to do so. It's taken me this long to be able to form coherent enough thoughts to write out here. To call my feelings about this somber would be an understatement. After spending most of last offseason randomly thinking about their loss to the Giants in the Championship game and what might have been, I've now got to look forward to another offseason, thinking about a close game that came down to a few plays, a few missed opportunities, and a loss that will rankle me for the next several months. Yes, I'll cheer up in a day or two and everything will get back to normal. Yes, I'll also spend a lot of time reflecting on what a great season this was, and the wild ride that took the Niners all the way down to the Super Bowl, but they couldn't bring home that 6th title. The legacy of the 49ers, to have made it to the Super Bowl so many times and always managed to emerge victorious, is now tainted. And that sucks. Many people seem to have the prevailing thought that in many ways, it's better to not make it to the Super Bowl altogether than it is to go there and lose it. A loss in the Super Bowl, constantly the most-watched sporting event of the year, can brand you with a negative label, whether it's earned or not, that you'll constantly have to overcome. I've been through slews of shitty playoff losses, I've seen the Niners hang in and lose by a hair, and I've seen them get smoked. But I've never seen them lose quite like they did last night.
It wasn't so much that Kaepernick played particularly badly in the first half. He may have had moments where he didn't relax, which had been his undoing in certain instances, but I can't recall more than 2 or 3 bad throws out of him all day. He wasn't helped by a number of drops from his receivers. But there's just something about Kaepernick. When he gets the offense going, it appears to energize the entire team. You can see it
happening. He hit Crabtree for the 49ers first touchdown and immediately, the 49ers Defense came to life and stopped the Ravens cold, even forcing a fumble from Ray Rice. The touch was back on his passes and the 49ers began ripping through the Baltimore Defense. You can say whatever you want about Kaepernick now, and I suppose people already have. Bill Cowher even went on CBS during the power outage and called for Alex Smith. That wasn't ever going to happen. If there was any Quarterback who could have led the 49ers back into the game, it sure as hell wasn't Alex Smith. Kaepernick had gotten them this far and he damn near brought them all the way back once again. As far as I'm concerned, Colin Kaepernick's performance bordered on Heroic. This team respects and loves him so much that when he kicks it into gear, it feels like the entire team kicks in with him. And that's exactly what happened in the 3rd Quarter Sunday night.
Baltimore kicked another Field Goal on their final drive, aided by a Pass Interference penalty on Chris Culliver and an offsides call. Little things that hurt. So with the score 34-29, and about 4 minutes to go, the 49ers had one final chance to get the ball into the End Zone, erase the deficit, erase the Ravens and bring home a Title. Colin Kaepernick had done it all to this point, and now here was his Joe Montana moment. As he had all second half, Kaepernick threaded passes with precision. Frank Gore, suddenly energized in the second half, came up with a pair of key runs. The Ravens defense was gassed. It was all coming together, just as I saw Joe Montana do it so many years before. Colin Kaepernick was going to pull off the greatest comeback in Super Bowl History and put his name alongside the NFL's elite...
...They came up five yards short.
The 49ers defense was abysmal through the first half, and when they really needed a stop in the 4th Quarter, they couldn't get it. The problem isn't the players, it's the depth. The 49ers have made it through the season rarely substituting on defense. The guys were just gassed. And without experienced backups, that becomes a liability.
The play calling, both early and late, was terrible. The final series for the 49ers will probably be scrutinized for weeks to try to figure out what they could have done differently to make up those 5 yards that they couldn't get. The final 3 plays were all passing plays. That probably shouldn't have happened. Where was Frank Gore? Gore had run up 110 yards for the game, most of them in the 4th Quarter. The 49ers had particular success running Gore on misdirection plays away from the action, and besides the point, Gore's strength is his ability to weave his way through tacklers. Where was a designed roll out for Kaepernick? Where was Vernon Davis (Bill Barnwell on Grantland noted that this would have been a perfect spot for the same Vernon Post play that won them the Saints game last year), who had been similarly unstoppable? Three consecutive pass plays directed at the same receiver, Michael Crabtree, though perhaps high-percentage, didn't play to Kaepernick's particular strength and also really wasn't the kind of play calling that got the 49ers to that point.
Whether or not Crabtree was the victim of a helmet-to-helmet hit on 3rd down, or held on 4th down is immaterial. Bad officiating and non-calls are a regular occurrence in the NFL. The 49ers were also done in by some penalties that they richly deserved. The referees did a bad job, but the play on 4th down—Crabtree was held by Jimmy Smith—is almost always never called. It wasn't called on NaVorro Bowman in the Championship game, either. My feeling is that the 49ers are less sore losers than simply frustrated from how close they came to winning this game. Or maybe that's just what I'd like to believe. Either way, them's the breaks. I can't get too bent out of shape about it because it shouldn't have come down to that. There's plenty of other things to be bent out of shape about. 
Friday, February 1, 2013
Bring It Home
Usually, when the 49ers have been in the Super Bowl, I've felt fairly confident that the 49ers are going to win the game. Super Bowl XXIX was a pretty good example of this. The 49ers were far and away better than the San Diego Chargers, and the 18 1/2 point spread was indicative of that. Basically, come game day, I felt that there was no earthy way the 49ers wouldn't win, and I was right. The Chargers never posed a serious threat and the 49ers cruised to a 49-26.
This season, I believe the 49ers are a better team than the Ravens, but they're not so much better that the game is a mismatch. Just about everything I've read and seen and heard over the two weeks of hype leading up to the game has proven that although the 49ers are favored by 3 1/2 points, it's really anyone's game.
The Ravens come into this Super Bowl riding an emotional high that's been centered around their retiring superstar Ray Lewis. They've overcome some pretty heavy obstacles to get here. I didn't pick them in any of their 3 playoff games, and they shut me up by winning all 3. Prior to the Wildcard Round, I ridiculed their Quarterback, Joe Flacco, as a wimp, and he's shut me up by playing some of the best Football of his life. They beat the Colts at home pretty convincingly. On the road in Denver, in an impossible situation, they won again thanks to a miracle Touchdown pass from Flacco to Jacoby Jones and their defense's ability to force Peyton Manning into making a key mistake in Overtime. They capped off their journey with another impressive road victory in New England, where they just laid down the hammer on Tom Brady in the second half of the game and coasted home from there. Flacco has proven himself capable of any challenge and unflappable in a difficult situation, and his play is really the reason they've made it to the Super Bowl. He's going to be a major challenge for the 49ers. Ray Rice has played well, but it's been the play of their receivers, specifically Jones and Torrey Smith, and Anquan Boldin, who has really raised his game to another level after a subpar regular season.
They'll be facing a 49ers defense that really got lit up by Matt Ryan and the Falcons in the Championship game, and took a half to really get going against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Their pass rush holds the key to this game. Ever since Justin Smith injured his triceps against New England, it hasn't been the same. Aldon Smith, who set a club record with 19 1/2 sacks this season, hasn't had one since Smith got injured. Though Justin Smith is back, he's clearly not 100%, and it's allowed opposing Quarterbacks to put up some gaudy numbers against them. However, in spite of this, the 49ers have been able to get stops when they absolutely had to. Though they were in a real dogfight in the Green Bay game, they eventually wore down the Packers' offensive line in the 3rd quarter, slowing down Rodgers enough for the offense to put the game out of reach. In Atlanta, they barely laid a hand on Ryan, but come the second half, they forced him into a pair of turnovers, and once they got the lead, they came up with a huge 4th down stop in the closing minutes to seal the victory. Even with their pass rush suffering, guys like NaVorro Bowman, Ahmad Brooks, Carlos Rogers, Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner and Tarell Brown raised their game enough to compensate. Patrick Willis, of course, has always been on another level. One huge thing the 49ers have been able to do all season has been that even when they allow a receiver to make a catch, they've usually tackled him right there and prevented a bigger gain.
Though the 49ers have built their reputation on defense these past two years, it's been the offense that has stolen the show in the Playoffs. It's all revolved around Colin Kaepernick, who has proven himself a serious threat no matter what he does with the ball. The Packers tried to muscle up against their running backs, so Kaepernick simply ran around them. The Falcons tried to cut off the edges of the field to prevent him from running, so instead he handed off to Frank Gore and LaMichael James and let them do the damage. And neither of those teams did a very good job of stopping him from throwing the ball, whether it was to Michael Crabtree, Randy Moss or Vernon Davis.
The Ravens defense did a good job against all of their playoff opponents, particularly New England. But all of their opponents had problems running the ball against them, which allowed them to key in on stopping the Quarterback. They haven't faced someone quite as multifaceted as Kaepernick, and the 49ers tandem of Frank Gore and LaMichael James (who has emerged as a star-in-waiting this postseason). The Colts didn't have it with Donald Brown and what's-his-face, the Broncos backs were unimpressive, and they just knocked Stevan Ridley out cold in the Championship. Gore and James will prove a bit more formidable a test. The other problem they have is that, unlike the 49ers, who boast a lot of youth and speed on defense, the Ravens defense is comprised mostly of veterans who are entering the latter stages of their careers. Ray Lewis doesn't have the sideline-to-sideline speed he once had, and if he matches up one-on-one with Vernon Davis, that's going to be a problem. Their pass rush has been spotty, too. The key for the Ravens on defense, much like for the 49ers, will be if they can generate a pass rush against a 49ers Offensive Line that's been great all season. The other key will be if their Linebackers and Secondary can prevent the 49ers from turning the short pass into the big gain. Though the 49ers were able to open up a much more vertical passing game with Kaepernick at the helm than they were with Alex Smith, they still rely on the quick passes and short routes an awful lot.
Special Teams is something else that could rear its ugly head on both sides. The Ravens kick coverage team has had its share of problems. They allowed a pair of kick returns for Touchdowns against Denver. Though Ted Ginn, Jr, hasn't been as explosive as he has been in years past, he's still a threat, and LaMichael James has also performed well returning kickoffs. Jacoby Jones on the Ravens side has been very solid. But the biggest wildcard of the game is David Akers for the 49ers. An elite Kicker for years, Akers has struggled with injuries and inconsistency all season, to the point where he's now a major liability. He missed an eminently makeable Field Goal in Atlanta. His confidence appears completely shot and the 49ers already attempted to bring in another Kicker to compete for the job, but that didn't work. Many have questioned why Akers wasn't cut outright, but the real reason is that most out-of-work Kickers are out of work for a reason: They're not very good. If the game comes down to a Field Goal, that's a sticky situation. If Akers misses a Field Goal early, it calls the way the 49ers play out the rest of the game into question. I have the feeling that the 49ers may go for it on 4th down more than once in this game. The hope is that it won't come down to that. One thing that the 49ers have done well, particularly with Kaepernick at Quarterback, is finishing off their drives with Touchdowns rather than settling for Field Goals.
One intangible thing I've noticed amid the hype-fest is the focus of the two teams. Ever since the 49ers won the Championship, the focus has been on prepping and planning to win the Super Bowl. That seems to be the singular focus across the team, outside of an ill-advised comment from Chris Culliver, and an outrageous statement from Randy Moss that may have been done to draw attention away from his teammates so they can focus and prepare, and onto himself, since he's used to all sorts of media attention anyway. On the other hand, the Ravens appeared to be more interested in junking the Patriots and complaining, be it Flacco talking about next year's Super Bowl in New Jersey, or Bernard Pollard whining about fines, rather than discussing the game, and what's besides the point is that Ray Lewis is the only player anyone seems interested in saying anything about, whether it's good or bad. As a team, their focus has come off really weird. This may be another one of my ridiculous observations, and may mean nothing, but it's something worth noticing.
Putting it all together, I think this is the 49ers game. They have the players that can control the tempo of the game, and the kind of rhythm on both sides of the ball that, when they're working well, can slowly but surely wear down their opponent. This is how they've won in the Playoffs, by wearing down their opponent. Even when they've started slow, they haven't panicked, they stuck to their game plan and remained patient enough for the games to work back into their favor. Two major things that can't be coached, youth and speed, are on their side. Two weeks ago, I said that they played this entire season to get to the Championship game and win, so that they could go forward and win the Super Bowl. The chance is right there for them, and I believe they will go out on Sunday and grab it.
Prediction: 49ers 30, Ravens 23
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)