The Level of Competition

I wrote last week about yesterday's 49ers/Washington matchup holding all the potential of a Trap Game, particularly given the way the 49ers have had the annoying habit of playing down to the level of their opponent. Washington came in to San Francisco with a record of 3-7 and hadn't looked good in weeks. The 49ers were coming off a pair of uneven, but effective road victories and sat at 6-4. What should have been an easy win was anything but, as the 49ers offense continued to stagnate for a majority of the afternoon and they nearly let the game slip away because of it. It took a clutch late drive led by Colin Kaepernick, punctuated by a clutch catch by Anquan Boldin and finished by a clutch Touchdown run by Carlos Hyde for the 49ers to escape with a 17-13 victory.

The game wasn't on in New York—mysteriously, CBS was carrying the game for reasons I'm not quite sure of—so I was relegated to NFL.com Gamecast for most of the proceedings. I say most, because let's face it, it's just not so conducive to track an entire NFL game on a computer screen that doesn't consist of actual video. Therefore, I only know what the lines on the screen tell me, and what it told me is that the 49ers once again failed to smash the proverbial flea with the proverbial sledgehammer and it very nearly bit them in the ass.

Things started off well enough for the 49ers, but then again, the 49ers have been starting games strong all season. Aldon Smith kicked things off by registering a sack on Robert Griffin III on the second play of the game, and after a punt, the 49ers tore down the field, as Colin Kaepernick hit Anquan Boldin for an 18-yard gain and then a 30-yard Touchdown that put the 49ers ahead.

After that, nothing. The game dissolved into a series of punts and mistakes by both Quarterbacks, but it was the 49ers that seemed to be making the costly errors. Carlos Hyde fumbled on the first play of the 2nd Quarter and Washington took over, but did nothing with the ball. It wasn't until midway through the Quarter that they broke through, as a drive predicated mostly on the running of Alfred Morris ended in the End Zone as Morris punched the ball in from a yard out to tie the game. The 49ers appeared primed to not respond at all, but just as the clock was running out in the half, Kaepernick, who'd done little of consequence since the Boldin score, hit Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree for a pair of long gains to set up what of late has been the offensive specialty—a Phil Dawson Field Goal just as the clock ran out.

The second half was a similar shit show. On the 49ers second possession, Kaepernick was intercepted on a deep throw intended for Boldin. Washington did nothing, and only when Aaron Lynch was flagged for Roughing the Passer on Washington's subsequent drive did they manage to mount any sort of yardage and their drive ended with a Field Goal that tied the game 10-10.

It was clear that the team that ended up getting a break would be the team that would break through, and when Frank Gore for the second week in a row uncharacteristically lost a Fumble deep in San Francisco's end, it appeared Washington had the break as their ensuing possession resulted in a Field Goal that gave them a 13-10 lead with 7:48 to go.

So, that was what the 49ers were faced with. In a similar situation against the Rams 3 weeks ago, the 49ers got themselves in position to score and, after eschewing a tying Field Goal instead watched as Kaepernick fumbled the game away on the 1 yard line. Now, after an afternoon of pretty much stagnating, the 49ers needed to come up with a big-time drive and score a Touchdown and put Washington in their place. Things didn't look good after Kaepernick was sacked on the first play of the drive, but somehow he got his act together, completed passes to Boldin and Davis and Gore plowed through to convert a 4th down and keep the 49ers afloat. On the following play, Kaepernick found Boldin in traffic over the middle and Boldin, who continues to make big plays in big moments, caught the ball in traffic while delivering a helmet-splitting hit to Ryan Clark, who went for the knockout and instead not only knocked himself out but got flagged for unnecessary roughness in the process. The additional 15 yards set the 49ers up inside the Washington 20. Kaepernick hit Boldin for another 10 yards to set up Carlos Hyde to score on a 4-yard run to put the 49ers ahead for good.

Washington couldn't move the ball on their ensuing possession, and after spending their time outs on the 49ers possession, Griffin was sacked by Justin Smith in the game's final moments and fumbled the ball away to Ahmad Brooks, and the 49ers were able to kneel on the ball and get the hell out of there with an unnecessarily difficult 17-13 victory.

At the beginning of the season, after a wildly inconsistent and unimpressive showing in the Preseason, Herman Edwards, the legendary motormouth who now pundits for ESPN, was talking about Colin Kaepernick and basically said that Kaepernick played lousy in games that don't matter, and really well in big games, using the preseason and last year's Playoff game in Green Bay as examples. The argument as he put it made no sense, but I understand the point Herm was trying to make. Kaepernick has been totally mercurial this season. He had great games against Dallas, Philadelphia and St. Louis, and even when the 49ers lost in Arizona. He made some key throws in New Orleans and again late in yesterday's game. But in general, he hasn't had a good season. For every good game he's had, there's games like Chicago, or Denver, or winning efforts yesterday and against Kansas City and last week against the Giants where he played poorly and the defense ended up winning games for them. He hasn't performed at the lofty level he set for himself when he took the league by storm two years ago and found himself in a Super Bowl after 10 games. It makes you wonder just how much trust the 49ers can continue to have in him. It's frustrating because the talent is there, but he continually plays down to the level of his opponent, or, as Herm was trying to say, the magnitude of the game. All too often, when it comes down to the 49ers playing a game against a Washington, or a Gnats, or the Rams, Kaepernick ends up having one of those annoying games where he tries to run out of trouble and either takes a bad sack or, worse, forces himself into turning the ball over. The numbers he's generated don't look bad on the surface—2,615 yards and 15 Touchdown passes are on pace to surpass his figures from last year with 5 games to play—but dig a little deeper. While he's only thrown 6 Interceptions, he hasn't yet played Seattle, who was responsible for half of the 8 picks he threw last season, and his completion percentage lies at a barely passable 61% (yet is somehow higher than the 58% he set last year). More alarming are the sacks. Last season, Kaepernick was sacked 39 times for losses of 231 yards. This season, and again, remember there are still 5 games to go, two of which are against Seattle, he's been sacked 34 times for losses of 227 yards, and he's fumbled 7 times, losing 4 of them (both numbers surpassing his totals from 2013). Whether it's been an over-reliance on his legs or an inability to read through the progression of his receiving options without panicking or trying to force a bad pass, he's not taking the next step.

The point is, he's not performing at the level expected of him, and I'm sure he'd be the first to admit that himself. And what's most frustrating about this is that this is a guy who's won multiple Playoff games, and multiple Road Playoff games in his first two seasons as a starter, and in those games, he's been a primary reason that the 49ers won those games. Need I remind you how he routinely eats the Packers for lunch, even in Green Bay? Need I remind you that he threw for over 300 Yards in the Super Bowl in his 10th career start, and nearly led the 49ers back from a 22-point deficit? These things actually happened. This isn't as though we're talking about some flash in the pan, he's proven he can be successful playing his game at this level. Too often, though, we get performances like yesterday, where he's not completing passes, he's taking too many sacks and he's throwing bad interceptions, and it takes a last-gasp drive to save another embarrassing defeat. Or you have a game like in New Orleans, where he saves his ass by completing a desperate heave on a broken play. And then the next week, he could go out and throw for 300 yards or run for 100. There seems to be no happy medium here. There's no particular consistency to his performances this season. It's making the 49ers rather nerve-wracking to follow this season, because they certainly have the talent to be a Championship-caliber team (and on Defense, they play as such).

Somehow, in spite of all these struggles, the team has managed to will their way to 7-4 going into a Thanksgiving Night showdown against the Seahawks at home. Since I tend to spend my Thanksgivings in an environment where I'm likely to get glowered at if I put on the TV, I'm setting the DVR for this one. But I have no idea what the hell kind of performance I'm going to get out of the 49ers on this night. Seattle has certainly had their own troubles this season; they also sit at 7-4 and have had plenty of internal strife and offensive woes. But these two teams certainly don't hold back when they face each other, and they're going to meet twice in the next three weeks and these matchups will quite likely go a long way in determining who will continue to play come January.

Take Back Pride

The reeling 49ers went into Washington last night for a Monday Night matchup that ended up being billed as a game featuring a pair of Quarterbacks who were viewed as phenoms that came crashing down to earth. After lighting the league on fire last season, both Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin, III now found themselves slogging through miserable, inconsistent seasons. Kaepernick has been hampered by both inconsistency and injuries to players around him. To his good fortune, the team behind him has been strong enough to overcome this and win games. Griffin has been hampered by his own injury that he's not quite recovered from, and as such has been unable to play the type of football that made him such a sensation last year. The Redskins (a taboo word these days) have frayed around him and the result has been an ugly 3-7 record coming into Monday's game. Desperate for a win and ready to unleash their frustrations on a struggling team, the 49ers went out and did what they had to do in a 27-6 victory over Washington, ending their two-game losing streak and quelling some of the panic for a few days.

Whether or not this was truly a righting of the ship for the 49ers or just beating up on a bad team remains to be seen, but nobody's giving this win back. After a pair of middling performances that called his abilities as a Quarterback into question, Colin Kaepernick responded with one of his better games, throwing for 235 yards and 3 Touchdowns and generally looked comfortable for the first time since the Jacksonville game in London. After a slow start that saw both teams trade punts at a record pace, Kaepernick finally moved the 49ers down the field, converting a 3rd down play to Anquan Boldin, who made a great over-the-shoulder catch over hapless Josh Wilson (whom he picked on all night), and then scored on the following play as he beat Wilson again for a 19-yard Touchdown.

While the 49ers managed to get going somewhat, Washington remained flat. On their ensuing possession, Griffin did scramble for a first down, but on the following play, after being chased around by Aldon Smith, Griffin heaved a dying quail right into the arms of Donte Whitner. The image of Griffin lying on the ground may well become the enduring image of the game. The 49ers only netting a Field Goal out of the drive was a bit of a moral victory for Washington, and they made a spirited attempt to get back into the game, but a long drive fell short and resulted in a Kai Forbath Field Goal, and with the clock running out before halftime, Forbath rushed out and kicked another FG to cut the 49ers lead to 10-6.

The 2nd half got off to an ugly start for the 49ers. Kaepernick hit Vernon Davis over the middle on a 3rd down play and, while fighting for extra yardage, Davis fumbled and Washington recovered. But given a golden opportunity, Washington could do nothing of consequence. Santana Moss caught a short pass on 3rd down but was stopped short of the 1st Down by Patrick Willis, and on 4th Down, Roy Helu was stuffed for no gain by Willis and Navorro Bowman and the ball went back to the 49ers. This time, the Niners ripped right down the field with Kaepernick spreading the ball around between Davis, Frank Gore and Mario Manningham before zipping a 6-yard TD pass to Boldin in traffic in the middle of the End Zone. This opened the game up once again and allowed the defense to, as is often their wont with the lead, dig their heels in and really lay down the hammer. Washington barely managed any offense of consequence over the remainder of the game. The 49ers scored another TD following a 40-yard Punt Return by LaMichael James that set up a 1-yard score from Kap to Davis on a play where Washington appeared to sell out for a run, allowing Davis to slip into the End Zone with nobody in his general vicinity.

Kaepernick led the offense on this night, which was helpful because Washington zeroed in on stopping Frank Gore. Gore, who's struggled these past few weeks and ceded many snaps to the equally ineffective Kendall Hunter, only ran for 31 yards. It appears as though this is now the MO of teams that are playing the 49ers. As the league has adjusted to the read-option threat, the 49ers haven't called many running plays for Kaepernick. As Kap has struggled to adjust to a purely pocket-pass game, the 49ers have tried to lean more on Frank Gore and their other rushers. So, obviously, the better Kaepernick can perform, the better the chances are for the 49ers to have success because teams are naturally trying to stop the running game first and worrying less about Kaepernick passing. This could be playing with fire, since Kap has had a few strong passing games, but he hasn't done that enough to strike fear into the hearts of other teams. A large problem hasn't been ability, but simply a lack of talent around him. However, the 49ers are, for the first time all season, starting to get healthy. Kaepernick started the season with a receiving core of Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis and nobody else of note. But Mario Manningham has returned healthy and now Michael Crabtree is expected to return next week and this should give the passing attack a bit more teeth. But he managed to do that against Washington, and it was good enough to get the 49ers a sorely-needed victory.

The 49ers now return home for a pair of games against divisional opponents and the results of these games should say a lot about where this team is going this year. The Rams are first, and although the 49ers handled them easily in September, the Rams have looked better of late and took out the Colts and Bears impressively the last couple of weeks. After that, our dear friends from Seattle come to town in a game that should just be a great big love-fest. It should be a very interesting couple of weeks.

Media Darlings

As usual, I've waited until the Morning of the first Wildcard games to make my picks. Usually it's been out of general laziness. This year, it's only partially out of general laziness. I've also had a bit of a crisis of conscience about picking these games, because I've got a horse in this race, even if the 49ers aren't playing this weekend. Also, the two NFC Teams that seem to be drawing the most favor this weekend are also the two Flavors Of The Week, one of whom I'm going to have to deal with watching come 8pm next Saturday. I'll mention them when I get to picking the games, but just for clarity's sake, these are the teams that everyone's fawning over, showering their Quarterback with all sorts of praise, and basically handing them a clear path through to Championship Weekend. These teams get enough ink and enough jock-rubbing that if you root for another involved team, it's really begun to get irritating, and you want one of their opponents—preferably your team—to knock them in the mouth and put them in their place. But I digress. They've got their own problems this week, and I'm just going to sit back and watch it unfold  before I worry about which team the 49ers will face.

Saturday, 4:30pm
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) at Houston Texans (12-4)
If this seems familiar, that's because it is. These two teams met in the same game at the same time last season, with the Texans, behind 3rd String Quarterback T.J. (Don't call me Tyler!) Yates. The Bengals made some mistakes and the Texans pulled away in the second half for a relatively easy victory. A lot of what I've been hearing this week involves the Texans (as an aside, I find the Houston Texans, currently the NFL's youngest franchise, to be rather cumbersome. Even typing this out, I find I instinctively will type Houston Titans, which never existed, although the team that is now the Titans used to be the Houston Oilers, the perennially lame-duck franchise that was rumored to move for years until they actually did. Houston got another team 6 years later, which baffled me, and they had to suffer through the stigma of having David Carr as their franchise Quarterback for too many years, but now they've gotten it together) slumping late in the regular season and the Bengals hungry for a playoff victory, not having won a Playoff game since 1990, when their Quarterback was the cranky Boomer Esiason. Some signs may point to Cincinnati having an edge here, but I can't say I see it. Houston got off to a really fast start before regressing later in the season, but by that point, their playoff spot, and a home game, were all well-assured. Cincinnati has been one of those annoyingly inconsistent teams all season; the fact that they're the #6 seed tells you that they basically just happened into a Playoff berth (this usually is the case with 1 or 2 teams each season, and it's almost always the #6 seed). Basically, they ended up being the best of a bunch of marginal teams (you can lump them in with non-playoff teams like Pittsburgh, San Diego, the Jets, etc that just flat out stunk), and were helped out by the fact that the AFC was full of bottom feeders this season. Teams like that tend not to last very long in the Playoffs, and usually they're long forgotten by the time Championship Weekend rolls around.
Prediction: Houston 27, Cincinnati 17

Saturday, 8:00pm
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)
Have you heard about the Packers? Lemme tell you, they got a great Quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, he throws the ball all over the field and does a really cool dance whenever the Packers score a Touchdown. And on Defense, they have this awesome Linebacker named Clay Matthews (III) who has wild blonde hair and flexes his muscles on the field. These guys are the COOLEST!!! They're going to the SUPER BOWL!!! Packers, Packers, Packers! Lambeau Leap! Frozen Tundra! Vince Laahm-Baaah-Di!

Pardon me, I have to go vomit now.

Perhaps I could be accused of being somewhat bitter, and I can't say the Packers haven't earned some praise since they did win a Super Bowl two years ago, but the problem is that when you win a Super Bowl, and you're one of the NFL's staple franchises (see: Packers, Giants), what happens is you become pervasively annoying, so much so that many people, particularly that team's own fans, aren't even aware of it. The Packers won Super Bowl XLV, Aaron Rodgers started doing TV commercials, Clay Matthews, III (and it's time we made note of the fact that he's Clay Matthews, III., in deference to his father, an outstanding LB in his own right, and his grandfather, who also played in the NFL—if Robert Griffin, III can do it, so can he) was all over the place, even some of their lesser known players like Greg Jennings are on Commercials. Just be thankful Brett Favre isn't still around. And there's the whole Lambeau Field mystique and the cheeseheads...It's getting a little tired. I suppose knocking the Packers makes me somehow anti-American or something, but I don't care. I don't like them. The problem is, they're going to be playing this game at home, it's probably going to be about 20 degrees out in Wisconsin, they're pissed off because they think they should have had the #2 seed and a bye, and everyone is feeding into this.

They're playing a Vikings team that beat them last week, and while Adrian Peterson, who is simply a delight to watch, gashed them last week and may well gash them again, but their Quarterback, Christian Ponder, is, at best, middling, particularly when outdoors. There are ways that Minnesota could keep this game close, but it involves a lot of ball control and luck, and hope that Aaron Rodgers can be pressured into mistakes. It's possible, because of the Packers' general lack of a running attack, but I don't think the Vikings will be the team to do it tonight.
Prediction: Green Bay 33, Minnesota 20

Sunday, 1:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
Two teams that have sort of done it on smoke and mirrors. This is the one game I've had the hardest time figuring out. The Colts have sort of made it this far on Luck, both the literal luck and their Rookie Quarterback Andrew Luck, winning a number of close games in spite of an aging defense and a poor running game, combined with the Mojo of ChuckStrong, and how they've rallied around their Leukemia-stricken Head Coach Chuck Pagano. The result is one of the real feel-good stories in the NFL this season. On the other side, the Baltimore Ravens are more or less the Over-The-Hill gang on defense, as evidenced by their great linebacker Ray Lewis announcing this will be the last time he'll do his annoying dance (A word on Ray Lewis: Great player, yes. Hall of Fame Linebacker, yes. But let's not forget that he was almost sent to jail in 2000, and let's not even put him in the same ballpark as Lawrence Taylor as far as "Best Linebacker Ever" is concerned). They've had a season similar to Houston, where they started off hot and then came back to earth. They also have an erratic Quarterback in Waka Flacco, who's the kind of Quarterback who you may not often win because of, but you'll sure as hell lose because of (and as an aside on Flacco, I've gone on record as calling him the Ted Lilly of the NFL: He's got a modicum of talent, but he's incredibly wimpy-looking. He can blow up at any second, and he constantly looks like he's about to burst into tears and cry for his mother). They've also benefited from a good deal of luck. So, someone's luck is about to run out. I think it's Baltimore's turn.
Prediction: Indianapolis 23, Baltimore 20 (OT)

Sunday, 4:30pm
Seattle Seahawks (11-5) at Washington Redskins (10-6)
Bill Simmons wrote in his column yesterday that if the Seahawks could have stopped Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals in week 1, they would have been 12-4, won the NFC West and had the #2 seed and a bye this week. Well, they didn't, so they're on the road, away from their loud stadium and obnoxious fans. Lightly regarded at the beginning of the season, Seattle has sort of rode this groundswell of a hotshot Rookie Quarterback and a thundering running back, and a chippy Head Coach who skips around the sidelines and runs up the score, and an opportunistic defense that may or may not be full of cheaters. They hung around and hung around and won a few really close games, and then they started to believe it, and they started to rip up several opponents, including the 49ers. But I'm still not convinced. They've taken advantage of some pretty weak teams, and a 49ers team that was injured and unprepared. And on the road. Should they have to face the 49ers again, it'll be in San Francisco. Unlike the Packers, they're being anointed without actually having won anything, so I'm really hoping that someone steps up and puts them and their stupid coach in their place.

Unfortunately, I don't think the Redskins can do that. Though Washington has had a great season of their own, has won 7 games in a row, and boasts a team somewhat similar to the Seahawks (minus the annoying coach and cheating defenders), their defense isn't quite as good as Seattle's. They won't come out and start blasting people out of the box. But what I am interested in is to see just how Robert Griffin, III and Alfred Morris handle what's probably the toughest defense they've seen all year. To the Redskins' credit, they've eked out a number of close victories, but not against any teams that had a really good defense. What I do know is that this won't be a romp for Seattle. They've really walked over some lesser teams (the fact that Pete Carroll insistently continues to pass and fake punts when the game is out of reach may have something to do with it), and while they'll probably beat Washington, this will probably be more shootout than cakewalk.
Prediction: Seahawks 37, Redskins 31

So, there you have it. If this makes some sense, more power to me. Whatever happens, the 49ers will, I'm sure, be ready for whoever shows up in San Francisco next Saturday.