Finally Humbled

I watched the Big Game* last night through clenched teeth. Somehow, I knew that the Seattle Seahawks, nauseating as ever, were going to find a way to hang around with the Patriots, pull off some stupid late play and ultimately reel in their second consecutive championship. That would make them the NFL's new dynasty, which means we'd be subjected to another offseason of America's Sweetheart Russell Wilson being shoved down our throat because he's just like you and me, a down-to-earth dude who bullied kids in High School and speaks mostly in cliches. It would mean that somehow, clown prince Pete Carroll would be hailed as a genius, and Richard Sherman might never shut his mouth again. But just when it seemed like they were going to stomp down on the Patriots, Tom Brady and company got off the mat and erased a 10-point deficit in the 4th Quarter. Then, with the clock winding down, the Patriots somehow ended up on the right side of perhaps the most baffling, inexcusable play call in the history of the NFL and in one of the more rousing Big Games* in recent memory brought home their 4th title in 14 years with a 28-24 victory.

I'm no Patriot lover by any stretch and perhaps I could be chided for rooting for them in the game under the "Win for Seattle is a Win for the NFC" theory, but I couldn't bring myself to do it. I watched this game with the same silent glower on my face that I did while watching last year's debacle of a Big Game*, but where last year produced bad comedy, this game was a barnburner. It was also a nice big middle finger in the face of everyone who a) Hates the Patriots because they always get called out for some kind of nefarious behavior and b) Jumped on the Seahawks Bandwagon sometime around Week 13 in 2012 and thinks that they're God's Gift to the NFL. Anyone who thinks that the Seahawks are somehow this squeaky clean bunch of guys who play hard and win must have been living under a rock. Did the fact that Pete Carroll basically pulled an Amish Act on USC, scurrying off into the night before the NCAA stripped his titles somehow slip everyone's mind? How about the myriad PED suspensions? How about Richard Sherman, who used the Ryan Braun defense to get a suspension overturned? Going into the game, I got the sense that people wanted to see the Patriots lose simply because "Derp Derp They Cheated," even though nothing about deflated footballs had been resolved by game time. Basically, it was a good story and a nice diversion for everyone during hype week leading up to the Big Game. Let's throw all the negative press on the Patriots while Seattle can walk around with their chests puffed out and Marshawn Lynch can clown the media while eating HGH-enhanced Skittles.

This was how I felt going into the game. The Seahawks opened up about as poorly as they did against Green Bay, although much like the Packers, the Patriots didn't take advantage of the opportunity to open up a lead. They moved the ball consistently, behind a game plan that appeared to be directly pulled from the Bill Walsh playbook. Rather than try to run and gun, the Patriots instead decided to attack the Seahawks underneath, with a variety of 4- and 5-yard pass plays that were rather boring, but effective because they worked every time. This allowed the Patriots to consistently inch downfield. Brady was intercepted by Jeremy Lane in the 1st Quarter, but in the 2nd Quarter, he hit Brandon LaFell for a TD. But by that time, Beautiful Russell Wilson found his sea legs and Seattle responded with a TD of their own on a run by Lynch. The Patriots scored again on a pass from Brady to Rob Gronkowski with :30 seconds left, but their defense got soft and instead of going into the half with a lead, they allowed Seattle to tie the game and people to orgasm over Wilson because he hit Chris Matthews for a score with :02 to go (I'd make some crack about Matthews being an unknown, but, you know, all the Seattle receivers are unknown).

I didn't feel good about things for New England after they'd let Seattle cut through them like that. The Patriots had mostly dominated the first half but somehow could only muster a tie. Having seen more than enough of the Adderallhawks, I knew what was coming. Seattle came out on a roll in the 2nd half and immediately grabbed the lead on a Field Goal, then picked off Brady on the ensuing Patriots possession and scored a Touchdown when Wilson hit Doug Baldwin for a 3-yard score. Baldwin, who apparently was tired of hearing that all the Seahawks receivers are no-names, made sure everyone knew who he was by proceeding to perform some lewd act with the football. Attention-grabbing, yes. Classy, definitely not. Richard Sherman decided he'd get in on the act too, making some clownlike gestures at Darrelle Revis. 24-14 Seahawks and this game looked like it was about to spiral out of control.

But a funny thing happened: The Patriots fought back. Brady never wavered from his game plan, never panicked, and just went right back to picking the Seahawks defense apart. Though they punted early in the 4th Quarter, the Patriots defense got back to shutting down the Seattle offense and got Brady one more chance. This time, he capitalized, leading New England down the field for a Danny Amendola TD catch. Another Seattle 3-and-out got the Pats the ball again, and all Brady did was complete all 9 passes he attempted on that drive, that culminated in his 4th Touchdown pass of the night, a 3-yard score by Julian Edelman that put the Patriots back on top.

This, of course, is when things started getting interesting.

Seattle, which hadn't done much in the last quarter or so, got themselves downfield quickly thanks to one of those fluke plays that always seems to go against New England in the Big Game*. Or is it one of those plays that always seems to work in Seattle's favor? I forget, but at any rate, Wilson threw a deep bomb downfield that appeared to be batted away from Jermaine Kearse by Malcolm Butler. Or was it. In a moment reminiscent of Antonio Freeman in another era, Butler's batted ball floated into Kearse's lap without touching the ground; a clean catch. Somehow, the game fell into Seattle's lap. Now, the Seahawks had the ball at the New England 5 yard line, with Time Outs to burn and Marshawn Lynch ready to steamroll over everyone in a Steroid Skittles-aided frenzy for the certain winning score. He plowed for 4 of the 5 yards on 1st down. The clock was ticking away, with neither coach appearing to blink. Surely, Lynch was going to get the ball again—how could he not?

Somehow, he didn't.

In one of those plays that will end up with some name that sticks out in NFL Lore, a la Red Right 88, someone, whether it was Carroll, or Seattle's OC Darrell Bevell, called a pass play and Russell Wilson is too much of a "nice guy" to say that that's ridiculous and call an audible. Instead, he threw the pass, a square-in slant intended for Ricardo Lockette. But Malcolm Butler, who'd been victimized by the Kearse catch mere minutes earlier, atoned by pulling off the play-read of a lifetime. Butler, as though he knew exactly what was coming, jumped Lockette's route and blasted him clear out of the play, intercepting the pass in the process. With the game seemingly in Seattle's lap, Butler saved the day for New England. Neither I, nor anyone I spoke to, or anyone around the NFL or anyone watching the Big Game* could believe what they'd just seen. It was as though the Seahawks had somehow decided that they were so good, they could just do whatever they wanted and their opponent would capitulate to them, but they fell victim to their own hubris. Instead it was Schadenfreude that would rule the day as the Patriots took over, needing to just kneel on the ball a couple of times in order to finish out the game. Seattle, however, had other ideas. In a scene that showed the Seahawks true colors, rather than graciously let the Patriots celebrate, they petulantly tried to fight them, as Bruce Irvin decided to take on Rob Gronkowski and an ugly scene ensued that showed what a bunch of crybabies and sore losers the Seahawks really are. Maybe the Patriots cheated, but either way, a team nobody liked very much would have won the Big Game*.

Fortunately, it was the Patriots that came out on top. I can't imagine what it would have been like if Seattle had won, but I'm certain it would have been wholly unbearable, and so I'm thankful that Brady and company were able to seal the deal, and I'm glad that the Seahawks exposed themselves as a bunch of jackasses in front of a worldwide audience. It couldn't have happened to a more deserving group. Besides, any argument that will now come up saying that Tom Brady is as good or better than Joe Montana because they have the same number of Big Game* wins can immediately be blown up simply by pointing out that unlike Brady, Joe Montana never lost the Big Game*.

*Note: I have to refer to it as the Big Game because if I refer to the game by its actual name, Roger Goodell and the NFL Police will break down my door and fine me $50,000 for improper usage.

Big Game Blahs

I'd had some grandiose plans to write about the two Championship games and how they were studies in contrast. The New England Patriots won their game in a runaway romp that would have happened whether their footballs were fully inflated or not, or if they'd been playing with clay pigeons. On the other side, the Seattle Seahawks got here on a prayer, or, more appropriately, a wholly gutless performance by the Green Bay Packers. It wasn't the fault of Aaron Rodgers, and it wasn't the fault of poor Brandon Bostick who was needlessly turned into a national flog, it was the idiotic coaching job done by Mike McCarthy, who managed the game with the tenacity of a scalded dog, turning what appeared to be sure Touchdown opportunities into Field Goals, failing to allow his offense to take advantage of 5 Seattle turnovers and instead just let the Seahawks hang around. This is probably the worst thing you can do against the Seahawks, because if you let them slip back in, all of a sudden things just snowball for them. The Seahawks didn't deserve to win that game. They came out looking like they'd took too much Adderall at the pregame meeting and played like a team that was overconfident and expected the Packers to just capitulate to them. Well, the Packers did capitulate, but it just took a little longer for the Seahawks to take advantage of it.

So, now, here we are, the Seahawks and the Patriots in a BIG GAME matchup of two teams that nobody likes. Even the Seahawks fans seem to have this dispassionate relationship to the team; I'm of the belief that the idea of the "12th Man" is more a self-aggrandizing tactic in the same vein of "Got Rings!" for some American League Baseball team that plays in New York. It's more about drawing attention to themselves than it is about the team. The "12th Man" will probably be out in full force on Sunday in Arizona, but if the Seahawks don't play well, you'll see them either abandon ship or start trouble. Patriots fans aren't much better, but at least you can see there's some kind of connection to the team. They're Patriots Fans, not a "thing."

So, there's still a game to be played here, if anyone's still paying attention, and it should be a good game on the surface. The Patriots have put together probably their best team as a whole in several years, probably since the 2007 season when they went 16-0 and annihilated everyone in sight. Tom Brady is healthy, Rob Gronkowski is healthy, they're running weird gadget plays that keep their opponents confused and even their defense is improved thanks to the addition of Darrelle Revis.

But then, there's the Seahawks. The Seahawks, the Seahawks, the Seahawks. Obviously you don't need to be a genius to know that I'm not rooting for them in this game, but for some reason, for as close as many seem to think the game is going to be, I have this sick, sneaking suspicion that this game could turn out an awful lot like last year. Pete Carroll probably laid out triple-HGH-laced adderall for his team this week, Marshawn Lynch has spent the entire week clowning the NFL and working himself into a frenzy, and Richard Sherman has been running around doing Richard Sherman things. There's not been a consensus pick either way in this game, which is like what happened last year. Denver came in with this high-flying offense and took the field like a bunch of bitches and the Seahawks just stomped them. I can absolutely see the same thing happening this year. The Patriots lost two Super Bowls to the Giants because they were facing a defense that hit Tom Brady in the mouth and wouldn't let them grab a toehold, and that's the kind of game the Legion of Adderall likes to play.  But if the Seahawks somehow can't get out of their own way like they did against Green Bay, the Patriots probably won't let them slip back into the game. Still, you go with your gut in a game like this, and as much as I would like to see them get slapped around and humbled like they so richly deserve, my gut says the Seahawks will win this game.

Pick: Seahawks 29, Patriots 13

Big Boy Pants

Championship weekend has arrived in the NFL once again, and after three straight years of involvement, the 49ers aren't around and therefore I can sort of sit back and watch these games like a normal person instead of a catatonic wreck. Then again, given the depth of my feelings toward the two NFC Championship participants, maybe it's better if I make other plans. Last weekend, I made three conventional picks and one calculated gamble and unlike in the Wildcard round, everything worked and I went 4-0. New England beat Baltimore in a rousing double-comeback affair that sort of exemplified everything that makes Tom Brady great. Seattle didn't totally humiliate Carolina, but they came close enough, winning a game that probably was closer than it should have been because Carolina scored in garbage time. The shootout I expected in Green Bay didn't happen and had things broken one way or the other early in the game, the Cowboys could have pulled off the upset. But they couldn't capitalize, they didn't get the call on the Dez Bryant catch/no-catch call and even if they did, they couldn't stop Aaron Rodgers, who did the Discount Doublechecking rather than receiving it this year. Then, there was the Indianapolis/Denver game, which I thought Indy would win, and they did because all of a sudden Peyton Manning started looking really really old, and his receivers forgot how to catch passes. This was just as I expected. The Colts fell behind early but clawed their way back, eventually took a lead and rode the momentum home from there. They had a pair of long scoring drives in the 2nd and 3rd Quarters, the Broncos could find no rhythm, and they could have conceivably sent Peyton Manning into retirement with one more puss on his face.

So, now we're here.

Sunday, 3:05pm
Green Bay Packers (13-4) at Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
The matchup that everyone wanted is probably the matchup I least wanted to see but knew was unavoidable. Green Bay and Seattle were the two best teams in the NFC for a majority of the season, and after they both started slow, they got their acts together and at one point or another were really stomping everyone in their path. The Packers certainly have the more potent offense right now. Rodgers is at the top of his game, and Eddie Lacy has performed well when he's had to, to say nothing of the fact that the Packers have a no-name group of receivers that look better than they deserve to because of who's throwing them the ball. Seattle can score points too, because America's Sweetheart Russell Wilson does Russell Wilson things and Marshawn Lynch is on another cycle of HGH is "tough to tackle." They don't have sexy receiving options, but they get the job done. Defensively is where the game will probably be decided, because where the Packers, as you well know, are led by this decade's Brian Bosworth, Clay Matthews III, the Seahawks are led by Shire Specialty Pharmaceuticals Richard Sherman and his mouth, combined with Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor and Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright and Cliff Avril and the names just go on and on and on until you want to smash your head in. Which is a pretty accurate description of what they'll do to you. And that's before we even begin to talk about the Clink, where you can rest assured the "Soundtrack of 1,000,000 people rioting" will be playing over the PA speakers throughout the game. So, basically, although I'd like to not see this happen again, the Seahawks have too much on their side for the Packers to be able to overcome. Rodgers might do his best, but why fight it.
Pick: Seahawks 27, Packers 21

Sunday, 6:40pm
Indianapolis Colts (13-5) at New England Patriots (13-4)
Since the beginning of the Andrew Luck era in Indianapolis, the Colts have been regularly and thoroughly flattened by the Patriots every time they've matched up. I don't know for certain that this will happen again this time, but I do think that the Patriots are going to come out on top in this game. Though the Colts have been winning on Luck's talent and general guile, they have also been winning with the "groundswell effect," which I mentioned earlier, where they may fall behind early, but they kind of hang around, and hang around, and maybe they lead by 3 points at halftime, and they get the ball coming out of the half and score and then get a turnover and coast home. That won't quite work against the Patriots, who have been known to run the ball down the Colts' throats and not give Luck a chance. The Colts can't run the ball much, although this Little Mack Herron fellow has been a nice story, he's also their 4th option at RB. This means Luck is going to have to throw a ton in order to keep pace, and though Wimpy Flacco had success doing so last week, he still couldn't beat the Patriots. The Patriots proved they can finagle themselves out of the depths last week, twice coming back from 14-point deficits behind Brady, some offensive formation chicanery (which to the best of my knowledge might have been slightly unsportsmanlike, but not illegal), a trick play that resulted in a Touchdown, and a defense that held the line when they absolutely needed to. The Colts might be able to hang around and make this interesting, but on another one of those cold New England January nights, I don't think they have enough to take down the Bill Belichick Machine.
Pick: Patriots 34, Colts 28

So, once again, there you have it. Order your Pizza now, maybe Peyton Manning himself will deliver it since he's not playing tomorrow.

The More Fool You

Last weekend, I tried to be a hero and make some innovative picks based on what I believed to be some well-informed observations. Instead, I looked rather foolish as teams played straight up or generally took advantage of some controversial breaks and I ended up going 1-3 for the Wildcard Round. That's not my general pattern, but then again maybe I should have known better. The Cincinnati Bengals weren't going to go into Indianapolis and win. Though the Colts don't pose as a team of world-beaters, they were advantageously matched up against a team that has a habit of self-destructing at this juncture. A similar case unfolded in Pittsburgh, where a Steelers team that is probably better than the Ravens ended up losing because a) Their Running Back-By-Committee was doomed to fail before it even got started and b) the Ravens have a habit of turning it on at this juncture. So, now we're here in the Divisional Round where the Big Annoying Boys take the field and things really start to get interesting. Maybe. I again want to try to be a little more interesting than just going with the field, but I have the sense that this is probably going to be a more form-holding weekend than we usually get. But either way, I have an even greater sense that I'll end up looking the fool.

Saturday, 4:35pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4) 
Bad enough that the Ravens are here again, but now everyone's remembering that magical nauseating run they had two years ago where they went into New England and beat the Patriots, and if you'll recall, I picked against them in every round and they won each time. I thought they weren't that good, but somehow Wimpy Joe Flacco turns into Joe Montana in January and I'll never understand why this happens. New England, however, has put together their best team in a few years, and this is a team that finishes 12-4 and goes to the AFC Championship Game on a routine basis so that's saying something. Tom Brady is still there being Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski will probably have had his bowl of gravel for lunch, and oh by the way Darrelle Revis is lurking in the secondary. Pundits that claim to know lots of things seem to be leaning towards the Ravens because this seems to be the sort of situation where Flacco will succeed and because Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass with his feet last week and everyone needs a new Ray Lewis to hang their hat on. That's why the Patriots will win. Too much hype in the opposite direction.
Pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 24

Saturday, 8:15pm
Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
I'd heard an argument somewhere that maybe, just maybe, the Panthers can come into Seattle, run the ball, not make mistakes and keep the Seahawks off balance and give them a game. I'm not fooled. Carolina didn't play a good game last week against Arizona, but they happened to come out on top because the Cardinals were playing a 4th string Quarterback. This won't fly in Seattle. You know what's coming. The speakers are cranked up, the aluminum walls are extra tinny and the crowd noise is on queue, waiting for Cam Newton to capitulate and throw some dying quail to Richard Sherman so he can disco dance into the End Zone. This is a joke of a matchup and likely won't be interesting for more than a quarter. Make other plans for Saturday night.
Pick: Seahawks 51, Panthers 3

Sunday, 1:05pm
Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)
So the team that was 8-0 on the road goes to play the team that was 8-0 at home in this matchup of annoying teams that nobody likes but the NFL loves to cram in our faces. America's Team! Frozen Tundra! Aaron Rodgers! Tony Romo! Jerkoff head coaches! Ice Bowl! Coach Willy Loman! Woo woo woo! If you haven't puked from overexposure by the end of the 1st Quarter, I salute you, but this is the sort of matchup that the NFL and TV executives are probably peeing their pants over. Word is it's going to be -33˚ and driving snow in Green Bay, which I think is basically the weather there every day from November to April, or at least that's what the NFL wants you to believe. Meanwhile, there's still a game to be played, and stripping away the hype, you have a pair of teams that at one point or another could have been considered "The Hot Team" in the league. Dallas got off to a hot start. Green Bay was throwing 40+ points on the board each week for a while there. But they both came back to earth, and now what it boils down to is a pair of injured Quarterbacks playing in cold weather, so maybe it's better to focus elsewhere. They can both run the ball. Defense? Hmm...neither of these teams play it much. Dallas can't get out of their own way most of the time and the Packers defense is led by a second-rate commercial actor who plays football when he feels like it. What it boils down to is that this is a total snark-fest and part of me is kind of glad I booked a noon brunch so I can kind of ignore it.
Pick: Packers 45, Cowboys 34

Sunday, 4:40pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
I actually think this is the oddest matchup of the weekend. Conventional wisdom would have Peyton Manning going out, tugging his jockstrap a few times and throwing 7 Touchdown passes in the 1st half just to remind everyone that he's still the Pizza Man. And that may yet happen. The Colts, as I mentioned last week when I picked against them, don't do many things well, except that they have Andrew Luck, who may be the second coming of Manning himself, if his first few years are any indication. Denver can run and plays good defense. It's highly doubtful that the Colts can do either particularly well. But many of you know my 4pm Sunday game theory, and how in general, conventional wisdom tends to go out the window in favor of strange things happening. That, combined with the fact that strange things tend to happen to Peyton Manning in the Divisional round in general, the certain-to-be-cold weather in Denver, and the fact that he's been sort of un-Manning-like as this season has drawn on and it makes the hero in me want to show itself. There's an overthrown pass on a 3rd down play. There's a dying quail that falls into the hands of an opposing player. There's a 9-minute Touchdown drive in the 3rd Quarter. There's another game slipping away and hands are being tossed in the air and another shake of the head and a puss on the face...
Pick: Colts 23, Broncos 19

OK, ok. I couldn't resist. After all, I'm not putting any money on these games. Get your Insurance and your Pizza and your shampoo and Chunky Soup ready.

The Sound And The Fury

I've said in the past that Championship Sunday is an absolutely breathless day, and that's when the 49ers aren't directly involved, at least as far as I'm concerned. The past two years, Championship Sunday has more or less been a nail-biting-fest. For the 3rd year in a row, I'll be bouncing off the wall all weekend until the 49ers game starts, when I expect to be a mostly catatonic mess until the game ends. Last year, Championship Sunday wasn't so bad, primarily because a) The 49ers played early and b) The 49ers won. 2011 was pretty difficult, but we don't need to go into that very much. Basically, I can do my best to predict what I think will happen, but suffice it to say my attention is squared solely on one of these two games, which is a shame because while the NFC game is drawing my attention, the AFC game is probably the game with the greater acclaim, a pretty classic matchup in its own right. Let's examine.

Sunday, 3:00pm 
New England Patriots (13-4) at Denver Broncos (14-3)
As far as I'm concerned, this game is the undercard. I really don't give a rats ass about who wins this game. It holds about as much significance for me as last year's AFC Championship in New England, which I did watch, however amid my reveling over the 49ers, I barely remember what the hell happened in the game short of the Patriots getting smacked in the face at home in kind of embarrassing fashion. Well, as is their wont, they shook off that loss and they're right back in this game, although this time it's a rare Postseason road game for the Pats as they journey out to Denver to play Peyton Manning and his band of lesser men, more appropriately known as the Denver Broncos. The Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning storyline obviously speaks for itself; it's the 37th time they've met in total, and the 16th time that they've met with the AFC Championship on the line. Brady usually has had the upper hand in these matchups, generally because the Patriots defense has been strong enough to keep Manning out of sorts. But that was back when Manning was with the other team. Now, Manning has a whole bunch of weapons that are probably overachieving because he's throwing them the football. Brady, on the other hand, has now been relying on a power running game behind a resurgent LeGarrette Blount, primarily because his top Receivers are either injured, in jail or on the Broncos. So that's a new wrinkle. Neither of these teams have especially great defenses from what I can tell. The hot word is that Peyton Manning and the Broncos need this game more, for reasons of legacy or whatnot. I guess that, combined with them being home is enough to swing things in their favor. But that's kind of an academic pick. I can't reiterate enough: I DON'T CARE WHO WINS THIS GAME.
Pick: Broncos 34, Patriots 30

Sunday, 6:30pm
San Francisco 49ers (14-4) at Seattle Seahawks (14-3)
All that being said, you can safely assume I care very much about who wins this game. This game is, in my opinion, the better game. These are two teams that were widely regarded as the two best in the NFC at the outset of the season, and so it seems proper that it's these two teams meeting to see who will be Champion of the NFC. I would, of course, rather this game be in San Francisco, but given how many challenges have been thrown at the 49ers over the course of this season, well, why not one more? They've already gone on the road and won two Playoff games this season, which to put it into perspective is the same number of Road Playoff games that the 49ers have won from 1981-2012 combined. Now they get to go on the Mother of all Road Trips for the right to win their second consecutive NFC Championship.

I've said many disparaging things about the Seahawks and the stadium they play in, and whether it's true or simply another one of my cockamamie theories doesn't mean a damn thing. Seattle is just a really difficult place for a road team to come in and win, so this is an unenviable task that the 49ers are going to undertake on Sunday evening.

Unenviable, but not impossible.

They say familiarity breeds contempt and certainly these two teams have plenty of contempt for each other. These matchups are generally pretty chippy throughout and Sunday should be no different. The dislike is mutual and starts at the top, since Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll have had, let's say a contentious relationship going back to their days as College coaches. Since they've moved to the NFL, Harbaugh has gone 4-2 against Carroll, but none of those games were as high-stakes as this Sunday's. The 49ers did win in Seattle in 2011, but that was a Seahawks team that had yet to establish itself as a force, and started the immortal Tarvaris Jackson at Quarterback. Since then, the Seahawks have lost but once at home, a Week 16 matchup against Arizona that you can bet the 49ers paid quite a bit of attention to. It would be in their best interest to do so, because the last two times the 49ers have been to Seattle, they've been beaten rather badly and been kind of embarrassed in the process, to the tune of a 71-16 score and a whole slew of moments where they just looked befuddled. Colin Kaepernick had a hard time getting used to the noise around him, had a hard time dealing with the Seattle defense and ended up being forced into multiple mistakes. Kaepernick threw 8 interceptions in the 2013 regular season—4 of them came against the Seahawks. Even when the 49ers beat the Seahawks in December, Kaepernick wasn't at his best, but he did make plays when he absolutely had to, including a needle-threader to Vernon Davis for the 49ers lone TD and a key scramble to convert a 3rd down in the 4th Quarter. When the 49ers have beaten the Seahawks these past two seasons, it's been primarily on the back of Frank Gore, who has been able to really grind out key yards over the course of games, eventually wearing down the front of Seattle's defense to the point where he will inevitably break off a big run. That being said, don't think the Seahawks defense isn't aware of this and gearing up to try to prevent that from happening.

On the other side of the ball, the 49ers defense, a unit that's really carried the team over a large part of the season, is faced with the unenviable task of having to stop Marshawn Lynch. Of all the talented backs in the league, Lynch is the one who seems to give the 49ers defense the most trouble. They've had success in containing Russell Wilson, the 199 yards he threw for in the 49ers December win was his career best against the 49ers, although he did throw for 4 Touchdowns in last December's blowout in Seattle. The 49ers have done a good job of keeping in his face, particularly early in games, and forcing him into mistakes, and they've intercepted him once in each of the 4 times they've faced him. What they haven't done is keep Lynch in check at the same time, and a lot of Wilson's damage has come on short passes to Lynch, who then has been able to rumble for yardage from there. Lynch will certainly be a challenge for the defensive front of the 49ers. But, again, this comes back to familiarity, and the 49ers have been playing as well as ever against the run.

What's been a disaster for the 49ers going into Seattle is that they've consistently managed to find ways to shoot themselves in the foot. They turned the ball over 5 times in September and in their loss in 2012 they turned the ball over more times than I care to remember, in addition to having a blocked Field Goal returned for a score. They've also had key injuries happen in Seattle...Basically, it's been a house of horrors. But, if there was ever a time that the 49ers could right this ship, now is the time, and here's why:

The 49ers offense, right now, is playing better than it has at any point in the season. True, too many times they've settled for Field Goals, and that certainly could create problems, although to this point it hasn't. What gets lost, however, is that these come at the end of long, sustained drives that tend to move down the field in 5-10 yard chunks and, in the process, eat up a good amount of time on the game clock. The 49ers get themselves in manageable 3rd down situations and convert them, and generally mix one good long gain into the mix. This is the epitome of the West Coast Offense, and something that they had really gotten away from in Seattle, primarily because Kaepernick was lacking in trusted receivers to throw to (Anquan Boldin was locked down by Richard Sherman in September and Davis was lost with a hamstring injury, to say nothing of the lack of Michael Crabtree). In 2012, the 49ers were out of the game so quickly they were forced to throw with disastrous results. When they beat Seattle in December, they did so using this sort of a game plan, moving down the field in a controlled manner before striking. This pattern continued through the 49ers wins in Green Bay and Carolina. They started out with strong early drives to start the game, and then ground out key yards in the 2nd half to put them in position to win.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks offense, or, basically, anyone not named Marshawn Lynch, has struggled. Russell Wilson finished up the season looking kind of pedestrian, topping 200 yards but once over his last 5 games, and threw up a 103-yard stink bomb against the Saints that would have looked even uglier had he not hit Doug Baldwin on a long pass late in the game. This is masked by the fact that Lynch stole the show with a pair of TD rumbles, but what teams have been doing to him on defense—getting their front lineman tall and in his face and trying to cut off the edges to prevent him from running or getting a clear throwing lane—has affected his ability to throw the ball downfield with consistency. This was key to Arizona's success against Seattle, and they held Wilson to 108 yards and won in spite of Carson Palmer throwing 4 Interceptions. The 49ers, who boast perhaps the league's best Defensive front, have to have taken note of this pattern and certainly have the talent to have success in keeping him relatively quiet. Or at least you'd like to hope they can.

Basically, the Defenses are going to rule this game, and that's not really going out on much of a limb. You can talk about experience and the fact that the 49ers went on the road to a raucous dome and won an NFC Championship game just last year, while the Seahawks haven't been this far yet, but when you make it this far and you know each other that well, I think it matters much less. It ends up being a matter of the 49ers being able to at least generate the same kind of offense they were able to generate when they won at home in December. This seems to have been what's been working for them, even if the results seem to be underwhelming. The key, obviously, would be to continue the trend of not turning the ball over. This is what gets the much-ballyhooed 12th Man going and starts things spiraling out of control. People follow trends in the NFL for a reason and if the recent trend holds, what will happen is that the 49ers can control the ball behind Kaepernick taking advantage of more available checkdown routes created by Crabtree and Boldin occupying Seattle's excellent Cornerbacks, let Gore, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James grind out some yards, settle for some Field Goals, let the Seahawks counter with Lynch, not let Wilson get too comfortable, and go from there. Points will be at enough of a premium and perhaps just continually smashing them in the mouth will tilt the scales in their favor.
Pick: 49ers 16, Seahawks 13

Now, the key is to make sure I make it to 6pm on Sunday without biting my fingers off. In the meantime, enjoy the games, and your Peyton Pizza and Brady Uggs. Fuck the Seahawks. 

Nice To See You Again

The NFL Purist will always tell you that Divisional Playoff weekend is usually the best weekend of the season. The weak links have usually been disposed of in the Wildcard round, and now the league's real elite teams start to show what they're made of. Adding a little fuel to the fire is the fact that three of the four games this weekend are rematches of regular season games that drew a decent amount of hype. The fourth one isn't a rematch, but it does feature two teams that have a much-ballyhooed history of meeting up in the Playoffs (and should that not be enough to satisfy you, another one of these games is a Divisional matchup featuring two teams meeting for the third time this season). One need only look at the Quarterbacks to gauge how good the competition is at this level of the playoffs. When the "weakest" of the bunch is a former #1 overall pick who threw for over 4,000 yards as a Rookie, you know the competition is pretty stiff.

Last weekend, I went 3-1 with my predictions. Indianapolis advanced thanks to a miracle comeback after making me look rather foolish for the first half plus of their game. San Diego blew up Cincinnati's shit and made them look like chumps. I have, of course, already been through San Francisco's win in Green Bay. The only misstep I made was picking Philadelphia over New Orleans, as I underestimated the Saints relying on their running game, taking advantage of some holes in Philly's defense and keeping their quick-strike offense off the field. Well played by Sean Payton and Company, but they face a much taller order this weekend.

Saturday, 4:30pm
New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
This is the rematch of a Monday Night game that got a lot of hype as The Game that would determine who would be the #1 seed in the NFC and the Saints basically got their clock cleaned by the Seahawks and their juiced-up defense. Since then, the Seahawks have pretty much hummed along, only hiccuping against San Francisco and Arizona, while the Saints frittered away their division. The Saints, not given much of a chance last weekend in Philadelphia, shocked everyone by winning on a last-second Field Goal to win their first road game in Franchise History. Winning their second will be a tall order against a Seahawks team that has been more or less unstoppable in their little Tin Shack where everything seems to just bounce their way. Or it did until Arizona decided they'd had enough of this fuckery and hit the Seahawks back. The Seahawks can be hit back, but unfortunately, the Saints defense lacks the personnel of the Arizona Cardinals, and fortunately for the Seahawks, they don't have to worry about the Cardinals showing up because they didn't make the playoffs. Drew Brees and the Saints won against the high-powered Philly offense by basically keeping them off the field and relying on their running backs Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, and Brees made the necessary plays. This is all fine and good when you're playing the Eagles. The Seahawks are another story and playing keep-away becomes infinitely more difficult when you roll into Seattle with 60,000 screaming lunatics (plus another 130,000 piped in through the PA system) and Pete Carroll lays out the Adderall spread for his defensive backs. It won't be the massacre the last matchup was, but Seattle's defense will probably make a few plays and Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch will grind out the rest from there.
Pick: Seahawks 31, Saints 17

Saturday 8:00pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
The lone game that isn't a rematch of a regular season game, but this Patriots/Colts Prime Time matchup makes up for it by being a revival of one of the more hotly contested rivalries of the past decade. Though the lack of Peyton Manning in this game kind of takes a little of the juice out of the matchup, it's still a solid matchup of old rivals. Now, the AFC games seem to be more difficult to pick, and their two games are more or less crapshoots. This game, for all intents and purposes, seems to favor the Patriots. They're in their element, at home, with Tom Brady running the show and an offense that can move the ball and score points even if Brady were throwing the ball to Lucas Duda. On the other side, the Colts defense got torched by Alex Smith and the Chiefs last weekend and were only fortunate enough that Andrew Luck kept his cool and led them all the way back from 28 points down to win. Luck's performance will certainly go down in NFL Lore, and it certainly would give you the impression that no situation is too daunting for him. That being said, I tend to lean towards experience and the Hot Hand. While the Colts certainly indicated that they're no pushover, and while the Patriots have laid their fair share of home playoff stinkers over the past few years, Luck doesn't have Tom Brady's resume.
Pick: Patriots 37, Colts 30

Sunday 1:00pm
San Francisco 49ers (13-4) at Carolina Panthers (12-4)
A rematch of what's probably the hardest-hitting game of the regular season, a 10-9 slog that probably served as the 49ers most galling loss of the season. The game seemed to be a bit of a microcosm of the offensive woes that the 49ers had over a majority of the season, while also illustrating how potent Carolina's defense can be. In the game, the 49ers had three early-game drives that they couldn't finish, and settled for 3 Field Goals. In the end, these squandered opportunities allowed the 10 points Carolina was able to muster to be good enough to win the game. Since then, the Panthers rode the momentum of that victory to a First-Round bye, while the 49ers got themselves healthy, won a Wildcard and a Road Playoff game to get to this point. Healthy is the key thing here, because it really bit the 49ers in the ass in the first matchup with Carolina. Michael Crabtree wasn't active and Vernon Davis left with a concussion. Anquan Boldin was bottled up, leaving Colin Kaepernick with the option of throwing to Vance McDonald and Kyle Williams, and the result was that he spent too much time looking around a collapsing pocket before sailing doomed passes or, worse, getting sacked. The Panthers won, but that's not to say that they had much success on offense, either. Cam Newton generated only 169 yards through the air while completing only 50% of his passes, while the game's lone touchdown came on a busted run by DeAngelo Williams and the winning score came on a prayer 53-yard Field Goal by Graham Gano in the 4th Quarter.

The point is, the fact that the Panthers won the game doesn't necessarily mean that they dominated, and asking them to repeat the success they had against a 49ers team that is now healthy and really starting to click is a tall order, especially considering that a) Steve Smith, their elder statesman and top playmaker on offense is hurting and b) For a majority of this group, this is their first Playoff game. The 49ers are a playoff-toughened bunch that seems to raise their level of play the further into January they get. Colin Kaepernick came off an inconsistent regular season and really took over their Wildcard matchup in Green Bay, showing up without sleeves in 3˚ weather and making plays with his arm and his legs and looking very much like the force he posed as last January. You know, when this group was 5 yards away from winning a Championship.

Sure, the 49ers are kind of becoming the darlings of the league right now and getting quite a bit of hype, and when you take into account the 3-year run of success they're on, they've earned it. But a really good, young Panthers team is kind of getting written off a little bit, through no fault of their own. But if they want to have success in this game, they're going to have to set an early tone. The 49ers, early in the season, had a habit of starting slow. Over the final half of the regular season and last week in Green Bay, they've started off on fire offensively, moving the ball at will. The key would be if they can finish drives with Touchdowns rather than Field Goals, and extend their success through the remainder of the game. After one quarter last weekend, the 49ers looked like they were going to blow the Packers out, but only led 6-0. This happened against Carolina, too. But if the 49ers finish drives early and get Newton in a situation where he's going to have to lead the Panthers back from behind in his first career playoff game and all the emotions that entails, this game could get away from Carolina quickly. Even if the 49ers don't go ahead early, the Panthers still have to deal with an offense that's much more complete than the one they faced in November, and in the end, the health and experience of the 49ers is what's going to carry the day.
Pick: 49ers 20, Panthers 10

Sunday 4:30pm
San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
Another one I can't seem to figure out. Of course, as is usually the case when division rivals meet in the playoffs, the old "Familiarity breeds contempt" adage is in full effect. These two teams met twice in the regular season, with the road team winning both times. The SuperDuperChargers come into this game on an emotional roll, sneaking themselves into the playoffs and then beating the Bengals, while the Broncos have rode the Peyton Manning express to another 13 wins and a #1 seed. 13 wins and a #1 seed seems to be the M.O. for Manning's career, and usually it's followed up by an abject stinker in the Divisional round. Any and all logic would dictate that Manning and the Broncos would roll over the low, leaky Chargers and Philip Rivers, but Rivers has had a bit of a career rebirth under coach Mike McCoy's system and have gotten to this point in spite of no support and seemingly impossible odds. The Chargers won last weekend by running the ball down the Bengals' throats and making a number of key defensive plays, among them 4 turnovers. Logic would dictate that the Broncos won't make the same kind of mistakes that the Bengals did, but then again, stranger things have happened in the NFL. Particularly when it's the weird, Sunday 4pm Divisional Round game. The Red Flags seem to be in full view. Peyton Manning and his spotty playoff record. The Broncos shitting the bed in this same situation last year against an opportunistic Ravens team that was working under some higher mojo. A Chargers defense that's had the hot hand. Philip Rivers and his bizarre bolo tie. Peyton Manning and his Pizza. I know my head is saying to make the safe pick and take Denver, but, hey, I've got too many premonitions going on and I'm not putting any actual money on this, so what the hell. I'm going to be a hero.
Pick: Chargers 30, Broncos 27

Strange as it may seem, but after this weekend, there's only 3 meaningful games remaining in the NFL season (unless for whatever reason you are really into the Pro Bowl). If these games go as expected, you can expect some real slugfests to play out in all three of them. Don't forget to use your Clay Matthews, III deodorant after the game! Fuck the Panthers!

Not To Be Denied

Several years ago, I talked about how Conference Championship Sunday in the NFL is a rather breathless day, and that was how I felt when the 49ers weren't involved. There's a bit of finality to the day. It's the NFL's last pure weekend, and even then it's not really a true weekend since they moved the game times to 3pm and 6pm from 1 and 4. That doesn't remove the importance from any of the games, mind you. But, suffice it to say, with the 49ers involved last season, I basically had to just pass time during the AFC Championship until the 49ers took on the Giants, something I did through clenched teeth. This year, the 49ers are back in the NFC Championship. Even though it's the early game, I'm quite certain I will have whipped myself into quite the frenzy by time 3pm rolls around. I'll probably be burned out by time the AFC Championship game starts at 6:30. It just doesn't even rate with me. Predictions, half-informed, nonetheless. 2-2 last weekend brought me to 5-3 overall.

 Sunday, 3:00pm
San Francisco 49ers (12-4-1) at Atlanta Falcons (14-3)

So, for the second consecutive year, the 49ers find themselves in the NFC Championship game. This is the 14th time the 49ers will have played in the NFC Championship (their 9th since I've been watching). For all the success the 49ers have had as a franchise, they're actually 5-8 in NFC Championship games. Last year, they hosted the game and fell painstakingly short in a the kind of game that I think about a year later and still get rankled. This mission this season, though it's never been widely discussed, was clearly with the mission to make it back to this game and win it this time. But, they'll have to go on the road to Atlanta in order to do it.

The 49ers and Falcons don't meet all that often anymore, unless the schedule falls that way. This wasn't the case for many years, when the Falcons bizarrely resided in the NFC West and these two teams met twice a year. Though the 49ers lead the all-time series 44-30-1, they haven't beaten Atlanta since the divisions realigned and the only time they met in the Playoffs, the Falcons won 20-18. Needless to say, I've never cared for the Falcons much, which is just as well since I have no particular affection for Atlanta's baseball team, or the city in general, either.

That the Falcons are here is a bit of a miracle. In spite of the fact that they got off to a hot start and went 13-3, nobody really gave them any kind of credit for their strong season. Faced with a matchup against the red-hot Seahawks, most predicted that the tandem of Matt Ryan and Soupy Sales would fall for the 4th consecutive time in the Playoffs. They almost did in excruciating fashion, running out to a 27-7 lead, then blowing it all in the 4th Quarter before Ryan rallied the Falcons back and put them in position for the winning Field Goal. Basically, Atlanta won in spite of doing a lot of things wrong and my feeling about them, outside of being glad that they kicked the Seahawks in the nuts, was that they don't really play complete games.

This was in stark contrast to the whipping the 49ers laid on the Packers. Yes, I'm biased, but let's face it. Everyone was on the Packers' jock going into the game, and the 49ers wore them out. The Packers kept the game close for the first half, but come the second half, Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offense just overwhelmed them with a barrage of different formations, different looks and plays they just weren't equipped to defend. The Packers had no answer and what was a 24-24 shootout turned into a 45-24 pasting. The 49ers contained Aaron Rodgers and the potent Packers offense by pounding out 323 yards on the ground, controlling the clock and keeping Rodgers off the field. The 579 yards they generated represented a 49ers Postseason record.

All things considered, I still have some concerns about this game. Colin Kaepernick had the ultimate "I'll Show You" game last weekend, shaking off an early interception before catching fire. His performance has launched him into the national spotlight, and even on the (regional) cover of Sports Illustrated. The concern is that he won't sneak up on the Falcons quite the same way he did on the Packers. Then again, the 49ers mix up their offense enough that, in general it may not be too much of a concern. In spite of the fact that the Packers defense got more hype (based more on Clay Matthews, III's hair than actual talent), Atlanta probably has a better unit, but it depends mostly on the effectiveness of John Abraham, the former Jet standout who has a history of no-showing big games.

Also, the game is in Atlanta. I said this already, but it's worth taking note. The 49ers history in NFC Championship games is checkered, and their history in Playoff road games is also pretty checkered (although because of the years of success they've had, they also haven't had to play that many road games). In fact, the 49ers haven't won a Playoff road game since 1988, when they beat the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship to go to Super Bowl XXIII. Since then, they've gone 0-5. But, at the same time, the 49ers have lost their fair share of Championship games on their own home field, so this could all be another one of my illogical concerns.

Although Atlanta has been very good all season, and they showed their intestinal fortitude by getting up off the mat and rallying to beat Seattle last weekend, they're going to have their hands full with the 49ers. They'll give the 49ers problems of their own, in the same respect that Green Bay gave them some problems, but the 49ers create the same kind of matchup issues that they did against Green Bay. The Falcons boast a better running game than Green Bay, and they have a pair of lights-out WRs in Julio Jones and Roddy White, but Matt Ryan isn't Aaron Rodgers. On the other side of the ball, I don't really know a great deal about Atlanta's defense (again, they don't have beautiful people like Clay Matthews, III, so nobody pays attention to them), other than they didn't really do anything especially impressive against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Wilson shot himself in the foot a few times, but when push came to shove, Wilson was able to run and throw as he pleased. I expect Kaepernick will have the same success.

Ultimately, I believe the 49ers will win. I firmly believe that they're the better team on both sides of the ball, but that's not why I think they're going to win. Championship games often come down to desire. I said it before and I'll say it again. The 49ers got this far last season and lost. They have the crucible of knowing what it's like to go this far only to come up short. Patrick Willis set the tone for this season after their opening game, saying "People don't understand. We're on a mission." This season hasn't been perfect for the 49ers, but when it's mattered the most, they've come up with the victories they had to get to bring them right back to this game. Jim Harbaugh made the calculated gamble to switch from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick with an eye towards getting back to this game and beyond. Given another opportunity, the 49ers will not be denied.
Prediction: 49ers 34, Falcons 24

Sunday, 6:30pm
Baltimore Ravens (12-6) at New England Patriots (13-4)

 After a miracle comeback in the last minute of regulation that led to a heart-stopping victory in the 6th Double Overtime game in NFL History, the Baltimore Ravens have all the look of a team of destiny, rallying behind their retiring hero, Ray Lewis. On the other side, the Patriots are basically doing what they always do, just sort of rolling on like the machine they usually are. Admittedly, I really haven't bothered to form much of an opinion on this game. I've devoted the entirety of my thought process to the 49ers and the NFC Championship, to the point where I'm not really sure I care who wins, and I really don't know if I have an accurate idea of who will win. I know it's going to be close, and it may come down to a similar instance as last year, although I don't think it's going to be quite as spectacular as Billy Cundiff's shanked Field Goal.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Ravens 20

I guess you could call this a half-well-informed set of predictions. I say I don't care about who wins in the AFC not to be funny or to blow it off, I legitimately don't care who wins the AFC game. My head is wrapped solely around the 49ers right now. 

The Big Boys

I'm actually making my picks at what is for me a somewhat early date this week. That it's been a bit of an intense week for me might be an understatement. I'd run through a brick wall if it meant time could just jump to 8pm Saturday night and I could sit and watch the 49ers and Packers slug it out in their game. But there's still two days yet before I can really get myself too worked up about it. Mostly, I've passed the time reading blogs on the game and following the 49ers "Quest for Six" campaign. There's also three other games that I have to predict, and many of them involve teams that I don't care for very much. In fact, the other NFC game, the Seattle Seahawks/Atlanta Falcons matchup, involves a current 49ers Division Rival and a former division rival, so no matter who wins that game, I probably will have plenty to snarl about. Both of the NFL's Darlings won last weekend, and most of the experts, I'd assume, will pick them to win again this weekend. Nonetheless, games still have to be played, so everyone should be careful not to prematurely anoint someone a champion just yet. Funny things happen in the NFL, particularly when the Divisional Round is concerned.

I was 3-1 on my predictions last weekend, only losing when the Ravens beat the Colts. In retrospect, I feel somewhat foolish having made this pick. I probably should have known better than to go with the mostly rebuilt and inexperienced Colts on the road like that, but sometimes you make the risky pick. That ends the suspense of the quest for a 11-0 postseason, but maybe 10-1 is a possibility.

Saturday, 4:30pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
The prevailing thought is that neither AFC Playoff game this week is much of a contest, and that may well be true. Many seem to think that the Broncos will rampage over the Ravens, and the fact is that they probably will win. They're a much better put-together team, and Peyton Manning eats Joe Flacco for lunch on his lesser days. The Ravens won last week primarily due to riding the Ray Lewis Mojo and also due to their ability to pressure Andrew Luck into making poor throws and mistakes. They won't be able to do this against Peyton Manning, who's been playing about as well as he ever has. So, their best hope would be to try to control the game with Ray Rice, who's the best Running Back on the field in this game. I don't,  however, think this will go so well, since Peyton Manning thrives on a quick-strike, no-huddle attack that zips down the field. Should the game dissolve into a shootout, that would be instant disaster for the Ravens. So, yes. The Ravens first, last and only hope is to control the ball. Not that that wasn't blatantly obvious. Ray Rice fumbled twice last week. That doesn't bode well.
Prediction: Broncos 30, Ravens 20

Saturday, 8:00pm
Green Bay Packers (12-5) at San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
The buildup for this game feels to me an awful lot like last year's Divisional Playoff game, when the Saints came into San Francisco all high and mighty, and everyone thought Drew Brees was going to come in and light the 49ers on fire, and the 49ers would be overwhelmed by the moment and the Saints were going to cruise on. What ended up happening was that the 49ers smacked the Saints in the mouth and held them off at the end. It feels like a similar story with a different cast of characters. Both these teams are battle-tested. The Packers come in riding the wave of a big-time hot streak behind Aaron Rodgers. The 49ers didn't surprise anyone this year like they did in 2011, and the result was that they've been a bit more inconsistent this year. That said, they did open their season with a rather impressive 30-22 victory over the Packers, exploiting weaknesses in the Packers' run defense and offensive line. But that was week 1, and a lot has happened since then.

The big story this season was, for the 49ers, the switch at Quarterback from Alex Smith to Colin Kaepernick. The ultimate risk, Jim Harbaugh sacrificed the steady efficiency of Smith for the big play ability—and unpredictability—of Kaepernick. The results to this point have been mixed, Kaepernick has been rather boom or bust and the offense as a whole seems to still be in a period of adjustment to the frenetic energy he seems to bring.

On Defense, the 49ers proved in Week 1 that they could contain Rodgers, mostly. But the key for all of this remains whether or not Justin Smith is able to play, and if he can (it appears he will), how effective he's going to be. Justin Smith's ability to disrupt opponent's offensive linemen limits the opposing run game, and also opens up lanes for Aldon Smith to get sacks. Without Justin Smith, the 49ers defense has been vulnerable against the run. This may not be a great concern, seeing as how the Packers have a terrible running game, but regardless, Aaron Rodgers is the best player on the field and can raise hell at any given moment. A healthy Justin Smith limits the Packers' meager ability to run and also will create more pressure on Rodgers, who was sacked a league-high 55 times this season.

Last week, at the start of the Packers/Vikings game, I mused that Minnesota being forced to use Joe Webb at Quarterback didn't bode well for the 49ers. Webb, a speedy, mobile QB who specializes in running around a lot to create plays, plays a similar style of QB to Colin Kaepernick. But Webb was forced into the lineup cold, after not having played much all season, and it showed. Webb proved himself mostly incapable of being able to throw a pass, and the Packers exploited this. Kaepernick may have a similar style to Webb, but he has far better tools. He won't spend his night holding the ball too long and throwing desperate, dying quails to nobody in particular. If anything, both he and Frank Gore should be able to pound the ball on the ground fairly well against the Packer defense.

This game seems to be confounding most Football observers, because although the 49ers pose a lot of matchup problems for the Packers, the Packers ultimately have the best player on either team in Rodgers, and the 49ers have a Quarterback making his first Postseason Start with a lot of question marks around him. In a Quarterback-driven league, this means a lot. But does it? Ultimately, I think most people may have already anointed the Packers as the team of Destiny and, perhaps, are too afraid to pick against them. But I haven't anointed anyone yet. I'll wait until February 3rd to do that.
Prediction: 49ers 20, Packers 14

Sunday, 1:00pm
Seattle Seahawks (12-5) at Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
How do you follow up a preview like that one? This game seems to be a bit more cut and dry than the SF/GB game. The Seahawks have been on a rampage, and the Falcons appear to be this season's paper tiger, having coasted through the NFL's easiest schedule to a 13-3 record and a #1 seed. These are a pair of eminently unlikeable teams. I've already said plenty about Seattle this year. But just to recap, after watching their game against Washington, people are now starting to notice that Seattle pushes the envelope of being a dirty team. Their defensive backs have been laying out opposing receivers for weeks, and to add insult to injury, after beating Washington, one of their DBs decided to try to fight one of the Washington players. All a reflection of their D-bag coach. Additionally, Russell Wilson has been drawing praise for running down the field to throw blocks for his Running Backs, but what nobody wants to admit is that Wilson isn't actually throwing any blocks. He's just running down the field and sort of getting in the way of defenders. He appears to purposely be avoiding hits. But, no matter, so long as they win games, he's a Hero. Somewhere, this will be exposed.

But, once again, they're probably the better team in this game, because Atlanta has been boring and overhyped for years. Matt Ryan has appeared to make a career for himself by storming around the sidelines screaming "YEAH!!!" with ferocious intensity while not really doing anything particularly great, and their coach, Mike Smith just looks like a rubber-faced doofus. Not surprisingly, they've managed to lose every playoff game they've appeared in. The pressure is really on them this year, and unfortunately, the Seahawks are probably the last team they want to see.
Prediction: Seahawks 31, Falcons 24

Sunday, 4:30pm
Houston Texans (13-4) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Kind of an overlooked game, because it was only a few weeks ago that Houston came into New England on a Monday Night and got housed by the Patriots. Though I don't suspect this will be another blowout, I (and probably everyone else) thinks the result will ultimately be the same. I flip-flopped on this game a bit, because New England does have a fairly recent history of shitting the bed in the Divisional Round against a chippy opponent (see: 2010 New York Jets), but they've also been known to lay down the hammer here as well. The Texans defense might make things a little hairy for Tom Brady, but then again, pressure doesn't seem to faze him. On offense, the only hope they have is pretty similar to the only hope the Ravens have: Hope Arian Foster can just run and run and run and eat up all the clock, because Matt Schaub isn't likely to best Brady in a shootout.
Prediction: Patriots 26, Texans 18
(Yes, I kind of mailed this one in. After writing those other previews, I'm burnt out.)

So, that's my take on what is generally considered the best weekend of the NFL's season. If things go well, you can expect that I'll be in a ferocious mood talking about the Seahawks. If they don't go well, I'll be in an even worse mood. That's all I can tell you. Following your team in the NFL playoffs isn't much different than following your team in the MLB playoffs, except that the games happen less often, so you're stuck waiting around getting worked up. Bring it on. Fuck the Packers. 

Two Plays

With just over 6 minutes remaining in the 3rd Quarter on Sunday Night, the 49ers appeared well on their way to a major statement victory. They were blowing out the Patriots, they of the legend of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, and their 5 AFC Championships and 3 Super Bowl Victories, of the 10-3 record and another Division Championship, of the record-setting offense. They had forced the Patriots into a series of mistakes, and although they themselves hadn't always capitalized, they'd done enough to race out to a 31-3 lead, which appeared virtually insurmountable given how well their defense had been playing. They had intercepted Brady twice and forced two fumbles. Offensively, though they had several sloppy moments, including a fumble by Delanie Walker inside the New England 10, and another missed Field Goal from Akers, they were having little trouble. Colin Kaepernick came out firing, undaunted by the cold, rainy weather, and tore the Patriots pass defense apart for 3 Touchdowns. Things were great.

With 6 minutes and 43 seconds remaining in the 4th Quarter, Danny Woodhead took a handoff from Tom Brady at the San Francisco 1 yard line. The entire 49ers defense had muscled up in the middle, expecting a Brady sneak. Instead, Woodhead slipped to his left and walked into the end zone untouched. This New England score tied the game at 31.

In the span of less than one game quarter of time, the Patriots had managed 4 consecutive Touchdown drives around 3 consecutive 3-and-out drives from the 49ers. This game that had appeared a cakewalk had all of a sudden gotten away from the 49ers, and now they were in danger of being on the wrong end of what would tie the greatest comeback in NFL History (a record these same 49ers set back in 1980). The Patriots offense finally kicked into their regular high gear, and their defense, suspect most of the night, adjusted and eventually stopped the 49ers cold, forcing Kaepernick into scrambles, bad passes and sacks. As a whole, the 49ers were reeling, and not only was the game slipping away, but perhaps the entire season was starting to fade as well. A loss would have meant that the 49ers would have merely a half game lead over the Seahawks, whom they are traveling to Seattle to play on yet another primetime affair next Sunday. A loss in Seattle, and the 49ers would no longer lead the division, and a playoff berth would be a dicey proposition. To say things looked bleak was an understatement. This was right on the verge of a full-blown disaster.

And in two plays, everything was fixed.

LaMichael James, the rookie Running Back who hadn't been active much this season until Kendall Walker's injury, had also taken over for Hunter on Kickoffs. A speedy, elusive player, James was deserving of whatever opportunity he could get his hands on. And in this crucial situation, he knew a short return wouldn't cut it. Pinned in their own end, the 49ers had struggled to do much of anything while the Patriots were storming back. To this point, their second half offense had consisted of a pair of one-play drives. They needed a jolt, something that would give them good field position to start. And James delivered a huge return, following a lane-clearing block from Delanie Walker and scampering 62 yards to the New England 38 Yard Line. One play later, the ball was in the End Zone. Kaepernick, facing a big blitz from the Patriots, threw a short screen pass out to Michael Crabtree, who shook a tackle from the only New England Defender anywhere close to him, Kyle Arrington, and ran the remainder of the 38 yards to Paydirt. The 49ers regained the lead 38-31, and although they still had 6 minutes of game to go, the Patriots didn't have another comeback left in them, eventually falling in a wild 41-34 affair that lasted nearly 4 hours.

Just like that, the 49ers had taken back the game, taken back the momentum, and perhaps taken back their season. A loss would have undone every bit of good that they had accomplished in this game and pretty much everything they had accomplished under Colin Kaepernick these past few weeks. In reality, little blame could have been put on Kaepernick, short of his inability to handle a direct snap from Center Jonathan Goodwin. In terrible conditions, Kaepernick came out and zipped passes through the rain that were almost always on target, save for one Interception early in the 3rd Quarter that was of little consequence. Though it was his final Touchdown pass that proved to be most important, the other three he threw were pretty key as well. Without his work, and the help he received from Frank Gore and Michael Crabtree (and even Randy Moss, who opened the scoring with a long Touchdown catch), the 49ers wouldn't have been in the position of having such a large lead to cough up.

The Defense comes away from this game looking less than great, considering they were the prime culprits in the loss of a 28-point lead. But, on the other hand, it wasn't as though they gave up a 28-point lead to some piker, this was Tom Brady and the Patriots. They have made an art form out of the No-Huddle offense, and few Quarterbacks have Brady's killer instinct. Brady ended up throwing 65 passes on the night, and the Patriots ran 92 plays, an astronomical number. But once the 49ers took back the lead and took back the momentum, the wind appeared to be let out of the Patriots' sails. Brady would be sacked twice on the possession following Crabtree's score, and after another 3-and-out from the 49ers, Brady ended up badly overthrowing Woodhead on a 4th and short play, giving the ball back to the 49ers deep in New England's territory. By the time the Pats had the ball for a final possession, they were the ones in the desperate situation, and eventually, the clock just ran out on them.

So, no, this was not the prettiest win for the 49ers. But it was a statement nonetheless. The Patriots are notorious for their unparalleled record of success both in their home stadium and late in the season. The 49ers proved themselves hearty enough to go cross-country, into a hostile environment in bad weather and come away with a victory. Not many teams have been able to sock the Patriots in the mouth the way the 49ers did for most of the game, and fewer still have the fortitude to be able to get up off the mat and fight back after blowing a lead as quickly as they did. So, rather than heading into Sunday night's Divisional Championship Showdown in Seattle reeling and hoping to survive, the 49ers come in on a high, having already won a big time road game under the Prime Time lights, having assured themselves of a spot in the Playoffs, and continuing to be in the drivers seat in the  NFC West. One victory in their final two games will clinch the Division, and two victories will earn them a first-round bye. At this point, the 49ers appear ready to do win by any means necessary. Sometimes, that's what it takes.