The More Fool You

Last weekend, I tried to be a hero and make some innovative picks based on what I believed to be some well-informed observations. Instead, I looked rather foolish as teams played straight up or generally took advantage of some controversial breaks and I ended up going 1-3 for the Wildcard Round. That's not my general pattern, but then again maybe I should have known better. The Cincinnati Bengals weren't going to go into Indianapolis and win. Though the Colts don't pose as a team of world-beaters, they were advantageously matched up against a team that has a habit of self-destructing at this juncture. A similar case unfolded in Pittsburgh, where a Steelers team that is probably better than the Ravens ended up losing because a) Their Running Back-By-Committee was doomed to fail before it even got started and b) the Ravens have a habit of turning it on at this juncture. So, now we're here in the Divisional Round where the Big Annoying Boys take the field and things really start to get interesting. Maybe. I again want to try to be a little more interesting than just going with the field, but I have the sense that this is probably going to be a more form-holding weekend than we usually get. But either way, I have an even greater sense that I'll end up looking the fool.

Saturday, 4:35pm
Baltimore Ravens (11-6) at New England Patriots (12-4) 
Bad enough that the Ravens are here again, but now everyone's remembering that magical nauseating run they had two years ago where they went into New England and beat the Patriots, and if you'll recall, I picked against them in every round and they won each time. I thought they weren't that good, but somehow Wimpy Joe Flacco turns into Joe Montana in January and I'll never understand why this happens. New England, however, has put together their best team in a few years, and this is a team that finishes 12-4 and goes to the AFC Championship Game on a routine basis so that's saying something. Tom Brady is still there being Tom Brady, and Rob Gronkowski will probably have had his bowl of gravel for lunch, and oh by the way Darrelle Revis is lurking in the secondary. Pundits that claim to know lots of things seem to be leaning towards the Ravens because this seems to be the sort of situation where Flacco will succeed and because Terrell Suggs intercepted a pass with his feet last week and everyone needs a new Ray Lewis to hang their hat on. That's why the Patriots will win. Too much hype in the opposite direction.
Pick: Patriots 28, Ravens 24

Saturday, 8:15pm
Carolina Panthers (8-8-1) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
I'd heard an argument somewhere that maybe, just maybe, the Panthers can come into Seattle, run the ball, not make mistakes and keep the Seahawks off balance and give them a game. I'm not fooled. Carolina didn't play a good game last week against Arizona, but they happened to come out on top because the Cardinals were playing a 4th string Quarterback. This won't fly in Seattle. You know what's coming. The speakers are cranked up, the aluminum walls are extra tinny and the crowd noise is on queue, waiting for Cam Newton to capitulate and throw some dying quail to Richard Sherman so he can disco dance into the End Zone. This is a joke of a matchup and likely won't be interesting for more than a quarter. Make other plans for Saturday night.
Pick: Seahawks 51, Panthers 3

Sunday, 1:05pm
Dallas Cowboys (13-4) at Green Bay Packers (12-4)
So the team that was 8-0 on the road goes to play the team that was 8-0 at home in this matchup of annoying teams that nobody likes but the NFL loves to cram in our faces. America's Team! Frozen Tundra! Aaron Rodgers! Tony Romo! Jerkoff head coaches! Ice Bowl! Coach Willy Loman! Woo woo woo! If you haven't puked from overexposure by the end of the 1st Quarter, I salute you, but this is the sort of matchup that the NFL and TV executives are probably peeing their pants over. Word is it's going to be -33˚ and driving snow in Green Bay, which I think is basically the weather there every day from November to April, or at least that's what the NFL wants you to believe. Meanwhile, there's still a game to be played, and stripping away the hype, you have a pair of teams that at one point or another could have been considered "The Hot Team" in the league. Dallas got off to a hot start. Green Bay was throwing 40+ points on the board each week for a while there. But they both came back to earth, and now what it boils down to is a pair of injured Quarterbacks playing in cold weather, so maybe it's better to focus elsewhere. They can both run the ball. Defense? Hmm...neither of these teams play it much. Dallas can't get out of their own way most of the time and the Packers defense is led by a second-rate commercial actor who plays football when he feels like it. What it boils down to is that this is a total snark-fest and part of me is kind of glad I booked a noon brunch so I can kind of ignore it.
Pick: Packers 45, Cowboys 34

Sunday, 4:40pm
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at Denver Broncos (12-4)
I actually think this is the oddest matchup of the weekend. Conventional wisdom would have Peyton Manning going out, tugging his jockstrap a few times and throwing 7 Touchdown passes in the 1st half just to remind everyone that he's still the Pizza Man. And that may yet happen. The Colts, as I mentioned last week when I picked against them, don't do many things well, except that they have Andrew Luck, who may be the second coming of Manning himself, if his first few years are any indication. Denver can run and plays good defense. It's highly doubtful that the Colts can do either particularly well. But many of you know my 4pm Sunday game theory, and how in general, conventional wisdom tends to go out the window in favor of strange things happening. That, combined with the fact that strange things tend to happen to Peyton Manning in the Divisional round in general, the certain-to-be-cold weather in Denver, and the fact that he's been sort of un-Manning-like as this season has drawn on and it makes the hero in me want to show itself. There's an overthrown pass on a 3rd down play. There's a dying quail that falls into the hands of an opposing player. There's a 9-minute Touchdown drive in the 3rd Quarter. There's another game slipping away and hands are being tossed in the air and another shake of the head and a puss on the face...
Pick: Colts 23, Broncos 19

OK, ok. I couldn't resist. After all, I'm not putting any money on these games. Get your Insurance and your Pizza and your shampoo and Chunky Soup ready.

The No-Cares Bears

I feel some sort of moral obligation to make picks for the NFL Playoffs, even if the 49ers aren't involved. I suppose if I don't I might be subject to some sour grapes taunts but let's be real: The NFL Playoffs this season are going to be more about rooting against teams I don't like than anything else, and unlike the previous 3 years, I can't say I have too much of a vested interest in the whole thing. That being said, since there's no team for me to clearly root for, and plenty of teams that I don't like involved, expect a lot of snide comments and ridiculous barbs out of me while I make my picks for these next few weekends.

I suppose the one bit of solace I can take is that given how badly the 49ers played at times this season, it's probably better that they didn't make the playoffs because they stood a good chance of getting themselves bounced in an early round if they did make it, and in some ways, it's better to just not be there at all and count your losses at 8-8 than making it, getting beaten on Saturday afternoon and being "The Forgotten Team" in the playoffs like the Bengals usually are every year.

So, what is there this weekend?

Saturday, 4:20pm
Arizona Cardinals (11-5) at Carolina Panthers (7-8-1)
That the Panthers are here is by virtue of one of those little NFL quirks that gives the division champion an automatic home game, and another one of those little NFL quirks that the Panthers won a particularly awful NFC South with a sub-.500 record. But here they are, and believe it or not I think they actually have a good chance to win. The Panthers have been here before, they did win 12 games and scored themselves a 1st round bye last season (before the 49ers came to town and kicked them in the teeth), and they're facing a Cardinals team that started off 9-1 and were the darlings of the NFL before Carson Palmer got hurt, and then Drew Stanton got hurt, leaving them with journeyman Ryan Lindley at the QB helm which has kind of put their offense at a standstill. They do boast a good defense that should give Cam Newton and company fits, but I have the feeling that it won't be enough. The Panthers have the advantage of having muddled through a season where they didn't win a game for 2 months, but they won the games that counted, which ended up being their last 4 in a row, so believe it or not, the sub-.500 team is actually peaking which generally is a good thing to have happen when you're heading into the playoffs. I figure this is one of those games where the Panthers sort of lull their way to a lead, and this is one of those games where you look up and see it's the 4th Quarter and they lead by 17 points.
Pick: Panthers 23, Cardinals 9

Saturday, 8:15pm
Baltimore Ravens (10-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
This is one of the NFL's favorite masturbatory matchups, a rivalry game between two hated rivals, and they still want to give it that starch even if Ray Lewis isn't around to do his stupid Dougie Dance or whatever the hell it is. Somehow the Ravens are in the playoffs; they made it here as the AFC's #6 seed, the winner out of a consortium of teams that spent a majority of the season unable to get out of their own way. I believe this group included Buffalo, Houston, Kansas City, San Diego and even Miami was involved at one point, but it's the Ravens that are here, in spite of their best player being suspended in one of the NFL's stormiest scandals and Joe Flacco still looking like $120 million worth of wimpy (and if you think I'm still stewing over the Super Bowl from 2 years ago, YOU'RE RIGHT!). The Steelers have been the better team most of the season, Ben Roethlisberger has had a great year, as has WR Antonio Brown, but the issue for the Steelers right now is the availability of Le'Veon Bell, their Running Back who's proven himself to be of Frank Gore quality, but was injured late last week and is unavailable. This is a big blow to the Steelers, but even though they're forced to use one of their lesser backs, they still seem to me like they're going to advance here.
Pick: Steelers, 24, Ravens 17

Sunday, 1:05pm
Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
This is a matchup between two teams that need to put up or shut up. The Bengals need a win here because they've made the playoffs every year for the last 4 seasons, and every year, they've played like schmucks and lost their first game. Generally, it's because their Quarterback, the wildly uneven Andy Dalton, has turned the ball over some ungodly number of times. The Colts need to win simply to prove that they're a more cohesive team than just some middling players with an extraordinarily talented Quarterback, Andrew Luck. Last season, the Colts were well on their way to getting embarrassed at home by Kansas City before Luck sprung to life and spearheaded a big-time comeback, and then the Colts summarily got their asses handed to them the following week in New England. Injuries play a role here too, since Cincinnati may be without Receiver A.J. Green, who was concussed last week in Pittsburgh. Indy's top receiver, T.Y. Hilton is also banged up but seems more likely to play. Tossup games like this seem to come down to running games moreso than the Quarterbacks, and here the edge goes to Cincinnati, simply because the Colts have no running game to speak of and have to rely on Luck, whereas the Bengals have a two-headed attack with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, and this could well tilt the edge in their favor. A tough call for certain, but I'll take a gamble and go with the Bengals to win their first Playoff game since the Boomer Esiason era.
Pick: Bengals 34, Colts 30

Sunday, 4:40pm
Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
This is also a real tossup game between a pair of teams that haven't had Playoff success in a long time. Dallas has won all of one Playoff game since 1997 and the Troy Aikman/Emmitt Smith regime. Detroit hasn't won one in about as long as Cincinnati has, which takes them back to when Barry Sanders was toting the rock for them and their QB was Erik Kramer (a halcyon era indeed). To compound matters, that's the Lions only postseason win in the Super Bowl Era. Dallas has had a surprisingly good season, primarily because they decided their best way to go about things was to run DeMarco Murray into the ground, eat up the clock in a majority of their games, and not try to let Tony Romo have to do too much. Romo has had a fine season for once in his life, and so the prevailing thought is that maybe he's over that general A-Rodism that overcomes him in big moments. The worry about the Cowboys is that they've been consistently mediocre in spite of a wealth of talent for so many years, that you had to think that one of these years, they might actually get out of their own way and win some games. This could be one such year, but I'm not really buying it. The same could be said of Detroit, who can match Romo with Matthew Stafford, equal parts talent and stupidity, and can match Dez Bryant with Calvin Johnson, and their RB tandem of Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. The Lions also have a much better defense than Dallas, and they'll have the added benefit of having Ndamukong Suh playing this week, his suspension for stepping on Beautiful Aaron Rodgers last week having been overturned. I suppose either team could come away with the win here, but I see Detroit's defense stepping up and making plays in such a way that I don't think Dallas' defense is capable of doing. Plus isn't Romo way overdue for a real stinker of a performance? Finally, this is the 4pm Sunday game, usually a marquee matchup where something weird usually happens and things never go quite the way you'd expect it to. I see a close game, but a late Romo turnover will tilt the scales in Detroit's favor while Jerry Jones turns a Coughlin-esque shade of red.
Pick: Lions 30, Cowboys 20

So, there you have it. Enjoy the weekend if you can, and don't sit there watching these games in a mostly dark room sullenly stewing like I probably will.

Back In Red

In another era, the San Francisco 49ers and the Dallas Cowboys were, for all intents and purposes, the only two teams that mattered in the NFL. Three consecutive seasons, these two teams met in the NFC Championship Game, and that game may as well have been the Super Bowl since the winner of that game went on to flatten the hapless AFC Champion in their following game.

But that was the 1990s, and now it's 2014, and the 49ers, following a forgettable several seasons have resumed their position among the NFL's elite. The Cowboys, well, not so much. They boast a legion of overrated stars that cannot gel, a megalomaniacal owner that can't get out of his own way, and a Quarterback who inevitably finds a way to screw things up without much of an effort. And this is who the 49ers matched up against in their season opener, a glitzy hype-fest at 4pm on Sunday, with Joe Buck and his hair sitting along side the ever-agreeable Troy Aikman behind the mic.

True to form, the Cowboys screwed up early and often. Tony Romo threw three interceptions in the first half, the 49ers ran out to an early lead and basically cruised home with a 28-17 victory that probably wasn't anywhere near as close as the final score would indicate.

It took all of three plays for the 49ers to capitalize on a Dallas mistake. Despite taking the field looking woefully shorthanded thanks to injuries and suspensions, the 49ers defense got off to a flying start when DeMarco Murray fumbled on his first carry of the game. Dan Skuta, getting the start at Linebacker in the stead of Aldon Smith, stripped Murray and Chris Culliver, in his return to the lineup after missing all of the 2013 season with an injury, scooped up the ball and raced 35 yards unimpeded for a Touchdown.

For all the injuries, Aldon Smith's suspension, Free Agency departures and the assorted controversy-starting stories that had surrounded the 49ers—particularly their defense—this was quite a way to kick off the season, running back a Fumble for a Touchdown on the season's 3rd play. By the end of the game, though the Defense didn't have their best day, they would continue to force mistakes and take advantage.

Dallas' ensuing drive was, in a scene oft-repeated throughout the game, painfully slow in coming together. Tony Romo completed a few passes but was generally not at his best, but DeMarco Murray atoned for his fumble by running well. Still, the Cowboys were helped out by a pair of Ahmad Brooks penalties that extended things, and they were knocking on the door of a Touchdown before Justin Smith sacked Romo and forced Dallas to kick a Field Goal.

Finally, nearly halfway through the 1st Quarter, the 49ers offense took the field. They weren't out there very long. Not because they turned the ball over, but because they tore through the Cowboys B-level defense so quickly it was mind-boggling. It took the 49ers all of 4 plays to score, Colin Kaepernick rifled in a pair of completions to Old Reliable Anquan Boldin to cover the majority of the field, an interference call on a pass intended for Michael Crabtree got some more yards, and then Kaepernick, after nearly getting tripped up by a pursuing Dallas defender, hit an uncovered Vernon Davis in the right corner of the End Zone for a 29-yard Touchdown. The Cowboys much-maligned Defense was living up to their billing as Kaepernick, who'd struggled through an erratic preseason, completed 3 of 3 passes for 73 yards and a Touchdown in his first drive of the season.

If you were rooting for the 49ers, and it appeared that many people that went to the game in Dallas were, you had to be feeling good, and after the next sequence of events you were probably feeling even better. Romo took the Cowboys offense back onto the field. His first pass was complete to Jason Witten, who was subsequently stripped by Patrick Willis and the ball scooped up by Corey Lemonier and returned for a Touchdown. Replay ultimately reversed this call, but undaunted, Romo just handed the ball back to the 49ers two plays later when Romo decided that he'd try to pass to a triple-covered Dez Bryant and, not surprisingly, Eric Reid intercepted the ball and subsequently ran it all the way back to the Dallas 2 yard line. On the next play, Kaepernick hit Davis for another Touchdown and the 49ers were out to a 21-3 lead before the 1st Quarter was out.

The Cowboys next possession ended with similar results. Though they moved the ball well down the field and were once again knocking on the door for a Touchdown that might have brought them back in the game, Romo ended up alligator-arming a pass not particularly close to Witten on 1st and Goal from the San Francisco 5 yard line, and Patrick Willis was there to make an acrobatic Interception to snuff out the Cowboys. The 49ers did not score on their ensuing drive, as a pair of penalties served to short-circuit things, but once again Romo turned around and handed the ball back to them when Perrish Cox, filling in for Culliver, who'd been injured late in the 1st Quarter, intercepted a pass intended for Bryant. Romo had now managed to throw interceptions on 3 consecutive drives, each one more spectacular than the one before it.

The 49ers, this time, set out to eat up the remaining clock in the 1st half, and that meant that for the first time in the game, we got a good look at Frank Gore, who did what he always does and ground out a bunch of yards, as well as the debut of Rookie Carlos Hyde, who proved himself a very intriguing backup with a lot of energy. Gore did most of the work, but it was Hyde who finished the deal, scoring his first NFL Touchdown with :39 seconds left in the half to put the 49ers up 28-3 at Halftime.

The 49ers did not score any points in the second half, but they did take their foot off the pedal somewhat. They basically spent most of the half handing the ball to Gore or Hyde, or LaMichael James, with Kaepernick sprinkling in some passes, including a pair to newcomer Stevie Johnson and more to Anquan Boldin, who as usual was Kap's favorite target. Kap finished out his day going 16 of 23 for 201 yards. Boldin caught all 8 passes thrown his way for 99 yards. Gore ran for 66 yards and Hyde buttressed him by rushing for 50.

Defensively, the 49ers did allow the Cowboys to score a pair of cosmetic Touchdowns in the second half, but in general they made it very difficult for the Cowboys to sustain anything. Their drives were mostly of the painfully slow-moving variety and were often aided by penalties or some weird breaks. There were more injuries, including to both starting Cornerbacks, Tramaine Brock and Culliver, which forced Perrish Cox and Rookie Dontae Johnson into the lineup, but Cox, as we saw earlier, came through with an Interception and Johnson, undaunted by getting thrown into the lineup in his first game, played admirably well and hung with it throughout the game. Dallas' two scores came when the game was far out of reach and just about over, so it's not as though the outcome was ever in much doubt.

Afterward, when asked about any particular ill feelings toward Jim Harbaugh, Anquan Boldin flatly stated that he had no idea there were any problems. Sunday, there certainly weren't any problems for the 49ers. You don't know if this was simply because they were playing a team that looks truly terrible, or if they're all the way back—I suppose that remains to be seen and it's what makes the early quotient of an NFL schedule so nerve-wracking—but at least for this game, the 49ers looked like they're still a powerhouse in the league and their elite players are still elite players. Now, they get to return home and open up their new stadium on The Biggest Game In The Galaxy on Sunday Night, as Faith Hill or whoever is singing the song now welcomes everyone in to Levi's Stadium when they take on the Bears next Sunday.

The Perfect Storm

Yesterday's Giants/ Cowboys game could very possibly have been the perfect storm for the Media.

Either way, they would get to kill a Quarterback after the game. If the Cowboys won, the Media could go after Eli Manning for his continued struggles. If the Giants won, the media could go after Tony Romo for his much-ballyhooed vacation with Jessica Simpson.

The game itself played out exactly as I had expected it would. This was the perfect example of the "weird game" I talked about on Friday. The Giants raced out early, but their offense was, for the most part, fairly stagnant except when they absolutely needed to move the ball. Otherwise, the story of the game was the Giants defense, who was kept on the field for the majority of the game thanks to three exceptionally long Cowboy drives. For most of the first half, they couldn't stop the run, and they let Romo complete tons upon tons of short passes, and chew up the clock on the way to a pair of touchdowns. Then, they did the same to start the 3rd quarter, driving down for a Field Goal. The Giants kept themselves in the game with a pair of lightning strikes from Eli Manning to Amani Toomer (who has been playing out of his mind lately), one on a long TD pass on their first drive, and their most pivotal 47-second Touchdown drive to tie the game right before halftime.

After that, the Giants defense finally began to wear down the Dallas offense, specifically the offensive line. Between Andre Gurode's inability to hear a snap call, and Romo getting frustrated, the Cowboys inevitably self-destructed, slowly but surely, as the 2nd half drew on. The Giants managed to parlay a great punt return by R.W. McQuarters (ex-49er) into the leading touchdown, and the final 12 minutes of the game played out in the fashion of USA 4, USSR 3. Dallas would get opportunities, and be unable to cash them in. Romo began to whine, and his teammates committed some damaging penalties. One particular sequence saw Dallas run 9 straight plays from between both 40 yard lines, not being able to advance any further because of penalties on both sides, and dropped passes, finally being forced to punt the ball away. And on the final drive, Romo overshot his receivers badly on two plays before finally throwing that last interception to McQuarters for the death knell.

Frustrating, bizarre and weird. The definition of the 4:30pm Sunday game, and the right team won this game. And the media got to rip apart Tony Romo for losing his concentration on his vacation with the Simpson Family in Mexico, because that's clearly the reason he played poorly. Even Terrell Owens, never one to keep his mouth shut, brought it up without even being asked about it, going so far as to burst into tears over the attention being brought to his Quarterback and his dopey vacation that nobody really should care about at all. But it's funny to watch Owens go to pieces over it.

Meanwhile, the early game on Sunday held quite a bit of intrigue in its own right. The San Diego Chargers, who I figured would get blown out, held the line exceptionally well against the Colts, managed to slow the game down despite losing LaDainian Tomlinson (That's LaDainian Tomlinson, not L.T.) early in the game and Philip Rivers in the 3rd Quarter. The Chargers defense kept the pressure on Manning, who only seemed to be able to hit on the longer passes, and then scored three massive turnovers, one which kept them in the game at 7-0, one which kept the game close at 10-7 before halftime, and the final one at the end of the Colts last desperation drive, all the while cobbling together the winning TD drive with James Spader at QB. That was really the "Holy Shit" game of the weekend, because I don't know anybody who was giving San Diego a chance. Yes, with this upset, it takes all the steam out of the Colts/Patriots AFC Championship game that everyone wanted to see (sort of like the Cowboys/49ers games in the 90s), but don't discount the Chargers next weekend either. I'll still go on record saying the Patriots will win, but assuming that Rivers and Tomlinson can play (and I assume they will), and Gates is a bit healthier, they can make a game out of it. Rivers matured by leaps and bounds over the last 2 weeks, and his brash, unflappable attitude appears to be something the team is able to rally behind.

The Saturday games pretty much held to form. Ryan Grant gets all the credit in the world for bouncing back after having perhaps the worst first 4 minutes of a game ever, and Brett Favre pretty much plowed Seattle into the snow in one of the trademark dominant performances that he made his name for.

Saturday evening in New England was perhaps a closer game than I thought. Jacksonville kept themselves in the game for most of the first half, but they could not slow down New England's offense, and Tom Brady basically took the game over in the 2nd half and New England was able to surge away at the end.

So, this leaves us with a pair of most intriguing matchups next weekend. I think I've already stated who I'm leaning towards, but I'll have a full slate of picks on Friday, for Championship Sunday, the final true weekend of the Football season. Meanwhile, everybody in New York can prepare for the Giants Tsunami that is sure to happen all week long.